Expect More / Expect Less: Week 6

October 14, 2015 7:29 am Published by

The winning formula in fantasy football is simple: Play the matchups.

Yet, accurately determining the difficulty of a matchup and the true value of a player can be challenging if you use the same old dusty stats that every fantasy site has been using for the last decade.

Fantasy football is a game of numbers, so why not use the next generation of fantasy analytics to do the number crunching for you?

That’s why my weekly column ‘Number Crunch’ uses a proprietary system called “FantasyoMatic,” which uses an algorithm to provide the actual strength of an opponent and actual player capabilities with accuracy levels that you cannot find anywhere else. This system takes all the emotion and guesswork out of winning in fantasy football, and has proven to be up to 46 percent more accurate than the metrics that everyone else in your league is using.

Sound complicated? Don’t worry — it’s simple to understand. All you need to know is that the player or matchup with the higher rating is the better option. Positive numbers mean positive matchups, negative numbers mean negative matchups. That’s it.

Let the system do all the number crunching. All you need to do is find a spot for that fantasy league trophy.

Weekly Matchup Ranges

Below are the EASIEST and TOUGHEST defensive matchups against each fantasy position. The higher the number, the better the matchup for players who are facing them.

Want ALL the Defense Ratings? Find them here.

Legend

Here’s an easy breakdown of how each player module works. When these terms are mentioned in the text (i.e. “best”) they are corresponding to these ratings and colors:

 

Expect More:

Players who could exceed expectations this week based on their ability to outplay their matchups combined with the weakness of their opponent.

QB

Colin Kaepernick pulled himself back from the brink of fantasy obscurity with a solid 20 fantasy point performance against the Giants on Sunday night. Turning in his second highest total of the season could not have come at a better time. Both of Kapernick’s highest point totals this season have come against two “great” rated matchups, and this week he faces his third “great” rated matchup of the season against Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed an astounding 12 passing touchdowns in the last four weeks. Kaepernick should be able to take advantage of this matchup with his legs as well, since Baltimore has a tough time with running quarterbacks. The Ravens have given up a league-leading two rushing touchdowns and the seventh most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.

Forecast: Kaepernick’s remaining schedule could allow for some other spot starts later this season, but he might not be worth holding until then. Two of his next three games are against negative matchups before heading into his bye. [Recommended Usage: LOW QB1]

DFS Bonus Start: Teddy Bridgewater vs. KC

RB

Last week against the Eagles, Mark Ingram produced his lowest fantasy point total against a “worst” rated matchup (his second of the season). The numbers might be deceiving since he only had twelve rush attempts in the game but still averaged .61 Fantasy Points Per Touch (FPPT), which doubled what the Eagles were giving up on the season. Ingram faces no more “worst” rated matchups this season and this week, he gets his first “great” rated matchup of the year against the Falcons. Atlanta gives up a league-leading 1.6 touchdowns per game and allows the third highest FPPT to running backs in the league.

Forecast: Ingram could get hot since the next few weeks will be his easiest stretch of matchups of the year. He has two “good” and one “great” rated defenses before a set of “bad” rated matchups coming around his Week 11 bye. [Recommended Usage: RB1]

T.J. Yeldon left his Week 5 game late in the fourth quarter with an injury, but indicated that he expects to be “fine” for Week 6. If Yeldon plays, he should be in your lineup as he looks to continue his streak of double digit fantasy performances. Yeldon started the season against three straight “bad” rated matchups and averaged only six fantasy points per game. Since then, he has averaged over 11 fantasy points per game against two “good” rated matchups. This week he gets his third straight “good” rated matchup against a Texans defense that has allowed the fifth most rushing touchdowns per game to fantasy running backs.

Forecast: Yeldon has yet to face either a “great” or a “worst” rated matchup this season. He will face three of each to finish the season as he alternates between some of the toughest and easiest rated matchups between Weeks 7 and 16. [Recommended Usage: RB2]

DFS Bonus Start: Darren Sproles vs. NYG

WR

Julian Edelman has had unusual success against tough matchups this season. He averaged 1.85 Fantasy Points Per Touch (FPPT) against “bad” rated matchups, yet was only half as productive against his only positive matchup of the season back in Week 3. These numbers average out to 1.67 FPPT, which is good for the third highest FPPT of any receiver. Edelman should have no trouble producing against his second positive matchup of the season this week in Indianapolis. The Colts have given up eight touchdowns and the fifth-most receiving yards to receivers in five games so far this season.

Forecast: A negative matchup against Revis and the Jets next week could cool off Edelman, but he follows that game up with two positive rated matchups against Miami and Washington. [Recommended Usage: WR1]

DFS Bonus Start: Golden Tate vs. CHI

TE

Last week, Zach Ertz had the most targets he has seen since Week 2 and was able to produce his highest receiving total of the season. Ertz has not been productive for fantasy so far this season, but the Eagles passing offense is finally starting to warm up. This week, the Eagles face a Giants defense that has made several poorly rated tight ends look productive this year. The Giants give up the second-most receiving yards and the third-most touchdowns to tight ends this season. This is the first “great” rated matchup of the season for Ertz and should be his best chance to make a splash for fantasy.

Forecast: If Ertz is able to take advantage of this matchup then he could be worth a hold for a few weeks. He only has three “great” rated matchups the rest of the season, but they all come over the next month. [Recommended Usage: LOW TE1]

DFS Bonus Start: Delanie Walker vs. MIA

D/ST

MIN vs. KC: The Vikings are playing at home coming off their bye week and are favored in this contest. Minnesota faces a Chiefs offense that is playing without their top playmaker in Jamaal Charles. Even with Charles, the Chiefs had been giving up 4.2 sacks per game and are on pace to give up 72 sacks this season. The Vikings should be able to take advantage considering that they have six sacks in the last two weeks.

TEN vs. MIA: The Titans turned in a four-sack effort last week against the Bills and ended up having their second most productive fantasy week of the season. Tennessee is favored at home this week and also enjoys a matchup against a Dolphins team that was blown up after their loss in London back in Week 4. Miami has had a lot of time to prepare for this game, but the Titans should be able to hold Miami to around their average of 16 points per game. Sacks might be tougher to come by with Miami getting healthier on their offensive line, but interceptions can be had against Ryan Tannehill who has thrown five in the last two games.

 

Expect Less:

Players who could fall short of expectations this week based on the strength of their opponent.

QB

Josh McCown had his best fantasy game since 2013 last week in Baltimore. The Browns have faced three straight positive matchups and McCown has capitalized in each. He attempted a pass on 72 percent of the Browns offensive plays over the last three weeks and has averaged 47 attempts per game during that stretch. His streak is likely going to come to an abrupt end this week when the Brown host the Broncos. McCown has the third most passing yards per completion all season (11.8), but Denver is allowing the lowest passing yards per completion in the league (8.2). McCown has averaged two touchdowns per game in his last three, but Denver has only given up three total passing touchdowns all season.

Forecast: The Browns offensive line has two tough defensive fronts in a row with the Rams coming to town next week after Denver. McCown has enjoyed a soft schedule so far this season and will see five negative matchups from here until the season ends. [Recommended Usage: QB2]

RB

One of Jonathan Stewart‘s season highlights was his ability to top five yards per carry in a game for the first time this season against the Buccaneers in Week 4. Sadly, even with that effort he was only able to produce a season-low 50 rushing yards. Stewart has been consistently unproductive against all levels of competition this season, averaging around six fantasy points against both positive and negative matchups. This week he gets his first “worst” rated matchup of the year against the Seahawks. The Seahawks only allow a league-low 3.5 yards per carry and have not yet given up a rushing touchdown to a running back. Although Stewart’s measly 0.38 Fantasy Points Per Touch (FPPT) mark puts him in the bottom five of all running backs, Seattle has yet to allow an opposing back more than 0.39 FPPT all year.

Forecast: If you are looking for some running back depth, you could consider adding Stewart once his frustrated owners likely drop him after this week. Stewart still has four “great” rated matchups on his remaining schedule, where he could be considered a flex play with some upside. [Recommended Usage: SIT]

WR

Travis Benjamin‘s touchdown-scoring pace has regressed over the last two weeks, but he still has the fifth highest “Fantasy Points Per Touch” of all receivers (2.86). Benjamin has emerged as the Brown’s go-to receiver with over 20 percent of the team’s weekly targets. His fantasy point production has leveled off as he’s averaged 8.2 fantasy points per game over his last three. It is going to be difficult to see him even score that many points this week as he faces his second “worst” rated matchup of the season against the stingy Broncos secondary. Denver allows the fewest yards and the fewest touchdowns per game to opposing receivers and has only allowed 0.70 Fantasy Points Per Touch.

Forecast: Benjamin only has one more “worst” rated matchup left this season and it is not until he faces the Seahawks in Week 15. [Recommended Usage: WR3]

TE

Charles Clay went into Week 5 on a hot streak and came out ice cold. Much of the reason for his lack of production appeared to come from the Bills only throwing the ball 17 times, but Clay proved that he can be productive for fantasy with between five and seven targets. Clay has two double digit fantasy scoring weeks this season, but both of those came against “great” rated matchups. Clay faces his first negative matchup of the season this week when the Bengals visit Buffalo. The Bengals have not allowed a tight end to score this season, while holding opposing tight ends to only .63 Fantasy Points Per Touch, which is almost half of Clay’s weekly average.

Forecast:Clay’s toughest matchups are all still waiting for him this season. After Week 10, he has only one positive matchup and six consecutive negative ones left. [Recommended Usage: TE2]

D/ST

BUF vs. CIN: Buffalo produced solid fantasy points in three of their five games this season, with two of those occurring while playing on the road. This weekend Buffalo hosts a Bengals offense that has been playing very safe football all season. Last week, the Bengals did give up four sacks to Seattle, but had only two sacks leading up to that game. Dalton has only thrown two interceptions all year and the Bengals offense averages over 420 yards and 29 point per game.

PHI vs. NYG: The Eagles D/ST is coming off its best fantasy game of the season against the Saints at home last week. They cashed in on five sacks and three more fumbles while holding New Orleans to only 17 points. Although they’re playing at home again this week, the Eagles should have a tougher time generating turnovers against a Giants offense that has only given up four sacks, two interceptions and one fumble all season.

Week 7 Forecast:

Do you have holes to fill in your roster? Don’t wait until next week’s waivers, grab these guys now and enjoy their tasty matchups before they are even on your opponents’ radar:

QB: Matthew Stafford vs. MIN,
RB: Antonio Andrews vs. ATL, Shane Vereen vs. DAL
WR: Ted Ginn Jr. vs. PHI, Jamison Crowder vs. TB
TE: Zach Ertz at CAR, Dwayne Allen vs. NO
D/ST: MIN vs. DET, WAS vs. TB

 

© 2015 NFL Enterprises LLC. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. NFL footage © NFL Productions LLC.


Categorised in: Features

This post was written by Fantasy oMatic