—–As a final offering for your draft preparation, we present our 2010 sleepers. If you are interested in how our 2009 sleepers turned out, check out our “2009 In Review” article here. These sleepers are not based on ‘hype’, but rather a more mathematical approach. We take into account the projected strength of schedule (not 2009 SOS ranks), usage in the team’s system, projected touches, daily training camp performance updates, latest news and individual matchup scoring (provided by KC Joyner’s Draft Kit). We take all this information, process it together and then review to find our favorite sleepers.

To define a “Sleeper”: A player whose projected value is significantly higher than his current Average Draft Position. In short, a guy who will be worth more than you pay for him. Many of these are lower end players that you might see raise in value mid or late season so keep them in mind for early season waivers pickups.

Legend:

• FOM= FantasyoMatic FPA Score rank. Represents the mixture of ease of schedule, red zone usage and offensive line score. LOWER NUMBER IS BEST.
• ADP= Average Draft Position from consensus live and mock drafting. Our source is the fantasyfootballnerd.com.
• KC= KC Joyner gives opposing cornerbacks, linebackers and safeties a score based on their past performances and we weight these for an additional ease of matchup schedule. LOWER NUMBER IS BEST.
• PLAY= Ease of fantasy playoff schedule. We take the player’s opponents for weeks 14-16 strength and give them an ease of schedule score. LOWER NUMBER IS BEST.
• 1ST3= Ease of schedule during the first three weeks of the fantasy season. This is usually a good indicator of a player who can be traded to obtain a player of higher value. LOWER NUMBER IS BEST. A high “1st3″ and a low “play” mean a player to target in a midseason trade! And vice-versa.

*NOT IN ORDER OF RANK, LISTED RANDOMLY

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QB VINCE YOUNG TEN

FOM=11 ADP=144 KC=11 PLAY= 20 1ST3=1

Risk: He has his flaws, like his 58.4% completion rate and only exceeding 17 completions twice in his 10 starts. Try your best to forget his “suicide watch” 2008 antics as well. We are talking QB2 at best and he could end up being a really cheap 12th rounder with spot-start potential. You can’t argue about his price, so the risk is very minimal.

Why We Like Him: Here are the numbers to focus on:  In 2009 he finished with these totals for fantasy points: 15, 21, 20, 15, 27 and 7. During his 10 starts in 2009, he averaged over 16 fantasy points a game and ranked among the top 10 QBs during that span. We foresee the same type of run for Vince during his weeks 6-11 in 2010 so he is an excellent backup candidate for any QB1 you take with BYE weeks issues during that run. Keep in mind that he also gets a piece of all Chris Johnson’s receiving yards too.

Even though Young didn’t play an entire season, TEN enjoyed a 4th overall QB Red Zone Scoring% (63%) for all teams with over 20 Red Zone scores. This puts Young only one notch behind a McNabb/Vick Red Zone combination in PHI.

He has a blowout first three games in 2010, which could make him a big waiver wire target early and if you draft him he could be great trade bait for you in an early season trade. Of course, he could be worth holding on to for his mid season run. Either way, he will have more value than his ADP indicates. Accuracy has never been Young’s strong suit. Still, the rushing stats will be there, keeping Young as a solid QB2 with a little upside.

Preseason: Vince Young has completed 73.7 percent of his passes so far in the preseason. His career completion rate is 57.6, so there’s a strong chance this is a preseason fluke. Young was 6/9 with 48 Yds in a stinker in a week three defensive showcase against CAR.

Draft Plan: Young’s ADP of 144 makes him available in the 12th round. In case you find yourself without a QB2, grab Young.

Review: After 8 weeks, Young lead the NFL in passer ratings.

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QB TRENT EDWARDS BUF ( RYAN FITZPATRICK)

FOM=8 ADP=297 KC=9 PLAY= 7 1ST3=9

Risk: Tons. But, do not stop reading this article here. Trust me, I get it. Buffalo might be the worst team in the NFL in 2010, with offensive line and run game issues. The biggest risk is that no QB has solidified the job just yet. If Edwards gets good words from his coaching staff going into the early season, then keep reading. Oh yeah, Revis in week 4…first game back after his suspension?

Why We like Him: If he gets the job, he will throw a lot. 4 quarters a game to try to keep the Bills in it. His team may be terrible, but look at his late season schedule. The schedule is friendly. In addition to a pasty opening week to help the starter solidify the job, 4 out of 5 of the last games of the season go against bottom 10 teams against fantasy QBs. That’s poor safety matchups. See him as a deep league QB2 with upside.

Preseason: Trent Edwards finished 5-of-8 for 93 yards and a touchdown pass in the preseason game against the Colts. Edwards threw a perfect pass to Lee Evans for a 70 yard touchdown, and almost connected on another bomb. It’s a good sign that Edwards is trying to go deep, as it’s never been his forte (Fitzpatrick has been the long baller). While he’s not an option in 12-team leagues, Edwards essentially put an end to the Bills’ QB “competition” with the first-team offense racking up 14 points in the first quarter. Trent Edwards finished 13-of-17 for 153 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals in Saturday’s preseason game. Edwards went three-and-out on the first series before leading an 8-play, 57-yard touchdown drive on the second series. He favored Roscoe Parrish in week two to the tune of four receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown while Lee Evans was held to just one catch for eight yards. In week three, Edwards solidified his hold on the Bills’ starting quarterback job. In six series, he finished 13-of-17 passing for 153 yards and another 12-yard touchdown throw to Roscoe Parrish. Bills coach Chan Gailey credited Edwards for being patient and for his ability to find his second and third options on pass plays. “Trent made some very good decisions,” Gailey said. “I thought that was very encouraging.”

After going 4-of-4 for 66 yards, Trent Edwards finished the preseason with a passer rating of 102.6.

Draft Plan: Edwards has an ADP of 297, which allows you to make a very cheap QB depth pick or means he will be there on waivers if you need him well in advance of his sweet late season schedule.

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WR HAKEEM NICKS NYG

FOM=5 ADP=58 KC=2 PLAY= 2 1ST3=23

Risk: He has been getting hype this season due to nice play so his value vs cost gap may narrow. Steve Smith is still the man in NY but Nicks could see plenty of balls. If the NYG defense stiffens more than in 2009, the Giants could be throwing less and running more than they did in 2009.

Why We Like Him: NY Daily News beat writer Ralph Vacchiano believes that Hakeem Nicks “should be the (Giants’) No. 2″ receiver, “clearly,” ahead of Mario Manningham. Vacchiano writes that Nicks is “destined for great things,” and “might have the highest ceiling of any receiver on the team,” adding “He’s the Giants’ best big-play threat and he’s only going to get better.” However, Vacchiano is skeptical that Nicks is in for a major statistical leap because the Giants “love” Manningham, and Steve Smith could have another 100-catch season. We have a hard time believing the latter with the Giants wanting to run more.

Nicks has only two individual tough corner matchups and all NYG WRs have 6 bottom 10 matchups and the SECOND BEST fantasy playoff schedule of all WRS (2nd only to NYJ). Get a piece of this action in the playoffs though….its is nearly a guarantee for production. Nicks will be cheaper than Smith.

Preseason: A slight boost in value occurred when Hicks went down for the season and Nicks proceeded to brush off Manningham for the second WR spot. He has had limited play thus far but his value seems to keep rising. Nicks was 4 for 26 with the first team in a pedestrian performance.

Draft Plan: Nick’s ADP of 58 makes him a late 4th rounder and a 5th round value pick. A 16-game season from Nicks could equal low-end #1 WR production. He’ll be available as a mid #2/early #3 in most draft rooms, but make sure you value him as an early/mid #2. You won’t regret it.

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WR SANTONIO HOLMES NYJ

FOM=4 ADP=115 KC=2 PLAY= 1 1ST3=7

Risk:Four game suspension means he should be valued as a stash, not a starter. There is also theprecense of 2009 reception leader, Cotchery and Braylon Edwards and do not forget the Jets run first, second and third.

Why We Like Him: The Jets are working on having suspended Holmes learn all three receiver positions after he played almost strictly the “X” spot — or split end — as a Pittsburgh Steeler, yet he is being tagged with a four-game suspension to start 2010.

When he returns, he could have value. His value may take from Cotchery, but Holmes’ ability to beat individual matchups could have a lot of value after he returns. He might be thought of as a deep threat, but he has elite short pass numbers. Of all NYJ WRs, Holes has the best schedule since he misses 2 bad ones. he still has to form a relationship with Sanchez, but he will miss 1/3 of the fantasy season. Like Ben Roethlisberger, Holmes is being undervalued in drafts due to his suspension.

Preseason: According to ESPN New York’s Rich Cimini, Santonio Holmes has “looked like the best receiver” on the Jets in training camp. It’s not a surprise, and Holmes is going to be hard to keep off the field once he returns from a four-game suspension. He could end up playing more snaps in the final 12 games than both Jerricho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards after learning all three receiver positions in spring workouts. In week three, Holmes was involed in only one reception for 23 yards in his work with the first team.

Draft Plan: Holmes has an ADP of 115, translating to a  middle of the 5th pick. Most owners ill shy away due to the suspension, but he could drop lower and give you some late season value.

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WR- LEE EVANS BUF (# 7 FOM, # 6 KC)

FOM=6 ADP=108 KC=16 PLAY= 13 1ST3=3

Risk: First, he plays for the Bills. Watch out for the running game kicking in late in the season during fantasy playoffs. This decent schedule does also include ONE Revis game in week 4 with the other coming week 17.

Why We Like Him: We are talking 9th round players where some teams are grabbing early DSTs and TEs. Great value for a potential mid season boomer and quality spot start. His 5 good matchups are 5 more than a lot of top WRs this year.

A quick look at his schedule shows at least four games (Miami twice, Detroit and Jacksonville) that could be double-digit games. That makes him a good #4, but if the more vertically-inclined Fitzpatrick wins the starting QB spot, he could be valued as high as a #3. Evans doesn’t do as well on short routes as he does on long ones so Fitzpatrick would be the one you want throwing him the ball if you grab him. Although Edwards has been opening it up downfield a bit more to try to nail the starting job.

Preseason: His one 70 yard bomb TD catch from Edwards put him back on fantasy radars. He really needs the WR opposite him to step up in the preseason to give him regular season value. Roscoe Parrish shined Saturday to the tune of four receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown while Lee Evans was held to just one catch for eight yards.
Watch more of what emerges on the other side rather than his own play. Evans knows how to be ready for the games that count.

Draft Plan: Evan’s ADP of 108 means he will be going in the late 8th or early 9th round and Has four matchups that could tally big points so he is wrth a WR3 stash in your flex leagues.

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*DEEP* WR MIKE THOMAS JAX

FOM=14 ADP=205 KC=70 PLAY= 6 1ST3=12

Risk: He is a gamble opposite Sims-Walker on the other side, and Jacksonville neds to show improvement in the passing game to give value to any pass catcher. he also has nearly no portfolio to review to see if he can produce for 16 games.

Why We Like Him: According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Maurice Jones-Drew predicts that second-year Thomas will be the Jaguars’ breakout player in 2010. MJD called Thomas “the MVP of Jacksonville’s camp,” while Jags.com’s Vic Ketchman confirms Thomas “has put both hands on the number two receiver job and isn’t letting go.” We doubt a David Garrard-led offense can support two pass catchers as fantasy starters, but Thomas will see constant single teams opposite Mike Sims-Walker.

JAX WRs have a tasty playoff schedule but have a really tough road to climb weeks 5-13. But if he lingers on waivers during the season, stash him and keep him on deck for a good playoff run.

He’s a solid WR4 in Dynasty leagues.

Preseason: Mike Sims-Walker led the Jags with 3 for 64 yards vs Dolphins. He caught passes of 35, 22, and 7 yds in the 1st qtr alone. Mike Thomas caught a two-yard touchdown pass from David Garrard in that same game and ended up with two grabs for 27 yards. Thomas started opposite Mike Sims-Walker and appears to have a strong hold on the No. 2 receiver gig. In week Three, Thomas led the Jags with 5 receptions and totalled 30 yards. There’s not a ton of upside here with the Jaguars’ unspectacular passing attack, but deep leaguers could do worse for a late-round flier.

Draft Plan: Thomas is off most radars with an ADP of 205, which gives him 17th round or early season waiver value. No need to draft him, but you will be looking for him on waivers by week 3.

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RB CHRIS WELLS ARI

FOM=5 ADP=31 KC=16 PLAY= 19 1ST3=8

Risk: Simply put, the precense of Tim Hightower. ESPN’s John Clayton says that although Hightower is the “starter,” Beanie Wells will get 75 percent of the carries this season. As the Cardinals shift to a more run-heavy attack in the post-Kurt Warner era, Wells is going to be the bell cow. Hightower is the nominal starter as the more experienced player, but make no mistake: Wells is the feature back.

Why We Like Him: “Beanie” Wells had a injury-proned label coming into the league and got people worried by spraining his ankle on his very first practice last year. This caused him to get a late start and ultimately he never started a game and never got more than 15 carries until week 10. However, he turned it on over the last 6 games with 609 YDs and 6TDs over the second half. He also got the majority of the work in the fantasy postseason for ARI. If Ken Whisenhunt gives him more carries, he could be a force.

The Cardinals are expected to make the transition to a run oriented offense with either Matt Leinart or Derick Andersen under center in 2010, and that process will be aided greatly with the addition of controversial guard Alan Faneca. The signing of Faneca adds depth to an already solid corps of offensive linemen. Russ Grimm will employ more of a power running scheme with 2 TEs this year to help move to more running.

There may be some up and down performances early on as ARI gets used to their new QB and their new offensive approach. With 3 out of 5 matchups to begin the season coming against defenses in the bottom 10 against fantasy RBs, you can expect some good things. Hopefully by their week 6 BYE, Wells will shake out as the clear starter. If so, he can benefit from matchups against 4 out of the worst 5 defenses against fantasy RBs out of a 7 game stretch. Their fantasy playoff schedule is moderate but not horrible.

Preseason: Beanie Wells ran for 19 yards on six carries and caught three passes for 13 yards in Monday night’s preseason loss. He worked as an every-down back, playing in passing situations as well as on early downs. Wells also had Arizona’s best run of the game — a 17-yard explosion to open the second half. However, Hightower took almost all of the first-team snaps, and Wells’ yards-per-carry was in the negatives aside from his one impressive rush. He’s inevitably going to be the feature back, but Hightower remains steadfastly atop the depth chart.

Wells said he has been campaigning coach Ken Whisenhunt for more carries. “We have talked about it and I’m sure we’ll talk about it more,” Whisenhunt said. “… He just has to remember that there are other areas to his game that he needs to get better with.” Don’t buy into this coachspeak. Whiz is trying to keep Beanie hungry by listing him second on the depth chart and telling him what he doesn’t do well. Wells is going to get the lion’s share of carries this season.

In week three, Wells and Hightower both had 8 carries, but Hightower’s 29 yd run helped him take the 62-14 yardage output edge. Wells din’t help by losing a fumble.

Draft Plan: His ADP of 31 might change if the ARI QB situation doesn’t solidify soon. As a RB2 in the middle of the second round, he has increasing value and could give you about 6 weeks of RB1 numbers.

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RB RYAN MATHEWS SD

FOM=1 ADP=15 KC=15 PLAY= 8 1ST3=3

Risk: You have to remind yourself he has never played a down in the NFL regular season. Also SDs offensive line was the WORST in the NFL in Yards Per Carry in 2009, however it is still unknown whether that stat was influenced by L.T’s poor ply or even the health issues in San Diego last year.

Why We Like Him: Beat writer Kevin Acee believes Ryan Mathews showed flashes of greatness in the Chargers’ preseason opener. Mathews showed a nice burst, acceleration, balance, and tackle-breaking ability. Just as importantly, he earned praise for his route running and pass blocking.

The reason we have SD ranked #1 is because they have only one matchup against the toughest 5 defenses against RBs, and although that comes in a critical week 15 game, their killer top 5 weakest matchups in weeks 14 and 16 make up for it. You can also expect an excellent start for the rookie (as long as he gets to camp on time) since 5 out of the first 8 weeks are matchups against the easiest 10 defenses against fantasy RBS! Then, after their BYE (and a nice late Week 10 BYE to help counter the “rookie wall”), they revisit 4 of the weakest 10 teams again to finish the season. It really doesn’t get better than this if you value RBs and SOS.

Mathews did lead the nation in rushing yards as a junior in 2009, leading all of college football in rushing with an average of 150.67 yards per game in 12 games. Mathews also had 28 goal line rush attempts last season (That would equate to the 2nd most in the NFL since 2004). Mathews has burned some of the nation’s best rushing defenses-107 yards on 19 carries and averaged 5.6 yards per carry vs. the Wisconsin Badgers (the nation’s fifth-best rushing defense) and against the Boise State Broncos, (nation’s 28th-ranked rushing defense) Mathews ran for 234 yards and three touchdowns on 19 carries, averaging 12.3 yards per carry.

Preseason: The rookie was the team’s biggest bright spot against the Bears. Ryan Mathews rushed nine times for 50 yards and added two receptions for 11 yards against the Bears in the preseason opener. The Chargers opened up in a shotgun set with Mathews at tailback, which is a sign that he could be heavily involved as a receiver after all. Mathews showed impressive burst as a runner, and he was hard for the Bears defense to bring down. The early returns are very promising. He’s a legit top-12 fantasy back. Bloodied nose in a tough 12/53-1/13 outing. That’s 103 yds 21 carries (4.9 YPC) + 20 ys on 2 rec .  In week two, Ryan Mathews received two carries from inside the Cowboys’ 3-yard line in Saturday’s second exhibition game, but did not score.
In the opener, FB Mike Tolbert appeared to be the designated goal-line back with Jacob Hester as the lead blocker. In week two,  Mathews got his chance. It looks like the Chargers are undecided about who to feature in goal-line packages, so we’ll have a close eye on this one. We tentatively expect Mathews to get the first crack at the gig come Week 1. In week three, Mathews continued his productive preseason with 13 carries for 43 yards and 2 receptions for 9 yards, no goaline opportunities.

Draft Plan: A month ago he was a consensus ADP of 28, now he jumps up boards to #15. We still say sleeper because he is drafting as a RB2 and will give RB1 value in 2010. Do not let him pass you after your first round pick under any costs.

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*DEEP* RB KAREEM HUGGINS TB (LAGARETTE BLOUNT)

FOM=12 ADP=179 KC=N/A PLAY= 2 1ST3=20

Risk:

Why We Like Him: The Bucs intend to give second-year RB Kareem Huggins work with the first-team offense in Saturday’s preseason tilt with the Chiefs. In a matter of weeks, Huggins has leaped from worthwhile deep Dynasty stash to a serious re-draft sleeper. He had 55 yards on eight carries in the exhibition opener. Cadillac Williams is going to keep the starting job, but Huggins could make it a near-even timeshare with continued explosive play.

The reason we like Caddy if he gets the firm nod as the starter is because of TB’s schedule this season. He has 5 great matchups out of his first 6 and then after a tough series of matchups he enjoys a nice decline in opponents until a good playoff schedule and the league’s best week 16 matchups. Our recommendation is to grab him as a 3rd of 4th RB and use his early soft matchups to help you as a spot starter during BYE weeks for your RB2 during weeks 5-7. He could also be a waiver darling during the playoffs, injury savior or trade chip.

Preseason: As good of a preseason as Ryan Mathews has had, Huggins ranks above him in total yards in the exhibition. If Huggings continued to impress on in week two, getting reps with the first-team offense and recording 44 yards on eight carries.
Derrick Ward has had a dreadful preseason and suffered a possible concussion on Saturday, but Huggins was outplaying him badly anyway.

Kareem Huggins is expected to be promoted to No. 2 on the Bucs’ tailback depth chart prior to Saturday’s third preseason game. Ward will move down a rung, while the more explosive Huggins continues to assert himself as Cadillac Williams’ likely “change of pace” back. We’d normally call the promotion of an undrafted player ahead of a “proven” veteran like Ward stabilizing news for Cadillac’s fantasy value, but Huggins is arguably an even greater threat to Williams’ touches than the pedestrian Ward.

In week three, Ward led the Bucs with 19 yards on four carries against the Jaguars. It’s tough to say whether Ward did enough to save his roster spot. None of the Bucs tail backs had success against the Jags. Cadillac Williams rushed five times for six yards, and Huggins only managed -2 yards on three carries. Huggins is still worth a late-round flier in all leagues at this point.

Draft Plan: He is going in the 14th round but before Ward fell off, he went in the 9th and 10th. So that alone means value. We like his chances against Caddy’s durability issues and could give great value later in the season during those 5 excellent matchups.

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RB- KNOWSHON MORENO DEN

FOM=3 ADP=41 KC=21 PLAY= 13 1ST3=6

Risk: Knowshon Moreno (hamstring) went down with one of the first training camp injuries of the year. He is expected back at practice next week. Moreno will likely be eased back in to the preseason with extreme care. We don’t need to see him in the preseason to be confident in the second-year back as a solid RB2.

Why We Like Him: In the past, DEN could plug anyone in at running back or along the offensive line and still have success because of the zone-blocking scheme. However, DEN added Hamilton, Zane Beadles and J.D Walton to the line in the offseason to move toward a man blocking “power” scheme which should actually be better for Moreno.

Whichever RB is alive with DEN will have a shot to get his legs under him with three top 10 matchups against soft Defenses in the first 4 games. There is a wicked stretch of 3 out of 4 very bad matchups before DEN’s week 9 BYE. But if you are savvy, then let Moreno owners in your league struggle through some poor performances weeks 5-8, then when they are looking for a RB2 replacement for Moreno during their Week 9 BYE, offer them a trade for Moreno and enjoy an incredible bounce back late season schedule where his value may hit a season high going into the playoffs. It might sound crazy, but find an RB with a very easy early schedule that gets tough later. If you can stomach it, make that trade (and package another player) and you will look like a genius.

Before you get too worried about the Defense issues in DEN, look at how much that would really effect the running game here.

Preseason: Moreno is not expected to see action in the final two preseason games. The Broncos have been bringing Moreno along slowly but purposefully with an eye on the season opener. According to the Denver Post, the hope is that Moreno emerges as a three-down back this season, pushing Correll Buckhalter into a smaller role. In week three, after watching Moreno in pre-game warmups, Mike Klis of the Denver Post suggests that Knowshon Moreno (hamstring) “didn’t look anywhere near close” to playing. he is scheduled to play the final preseason game for DEN. Yet, we haven’t budged him in our projections as a solid RB2.

Draft Plan: Moreno’s ADP of 41 reflects his injury issue. He will be ready for the season and should be taken in the 3rd round as a RB2 with great upside and has some good BYE week matchups to add value to your bench.

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RB- DARREN McFADDEN OAK

FOM=9 ADP=75 KC=41 PLAY= 11 1ST3=2

Risk: The running back competition in OAK is allegedly wide open and may not be decided until the seson starts. There is also risk here of a season long RBBC. Also Bush apparently fractured his thumb in the week 3 preseason game.

Beat writer Jerry McDonald suggests Michael Bush (thumb surgery) could miss “up to a quarter of the season or more.”
The Raiders aren’t providing a timetable. McDonald, after consulting with an orthopedic surgeon, believes Bush is “highly unlikely” to be ready to play in the opener. The doctor advised that the 4-6 weeks would be a “best case scenario” for a return from “Bennett’s fracture” surgery. As Bush is a running back, it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to play with a “club” over his hand. Darren McFadden will enter the season as the starter with Michael Bennett as the backup.

Why We Like Him: Bush is a better zone scheme runner and McFadden is a better fit in a power run system. New coordinator Hue Jackson plans to mix in more power blocking with Cable’s zone scheme this year.

OAK only made it to the Red Zone 29 times in 2009 (New Orleans made it 72 times, for comparison). However when they get there, they score with their RB 50% of the time. This could help a guy like McFadden if QB Jason Campbell can get them to the Red Zone a few more times.

Whichever back wins this competition could have a very nice start to the 2010 season. No team has a better weeks 1-2 but then there is a tough climb until weeks 8-9. After their week 10 BYE, they have a series of tough matchups until a slight decline into the post. If this competition spawns only one RB, then seriously consider holding on to them for their 4 good weeks, then trading them for a better Flex RB during their week 10 BYE.

Do not rule out Bush, who actually started practicing already before week one. If he comes back and can hold on to the ball, Bush is your man here. There are a lot of “ifs” involved with that comeback, though.

Preseason: McFadden has missed the majority of training camp with a hamstring injury, so we suspect the coaches want to use this game to see what he can do with the first unit. With a strong performance, he could snatch the job away from Bush. Despite showing very little during his first two seasons, the Raiders coaches aren’t giving up on the former No. 4 overall pick. On the flipside, in the last preseason game, Bush was stuffed 2xs at the goal line and gained 0 yards on 7 other carries. Blow the sleeper off Bush for now and wait to see if McFadden wins his job back or hands it to Bush. In the third preseason game, Bush left with a thumb injury but still outplayed McFadden in his first time back on the field. McFadden gained just nine yards on seven carries and added two receptions for 16 yards against the 49ers. McFadden was expected to start, but Michael Bush (seven rushes, 23 yards, touchdown) had the first drive all to himself.

Draft Plan: Bush still has an ADP higher than McFadden at 75 (102). McFadden finally getting some looks in preseason will bump him up into the 90s if he plays well and could drop Bush to the 80s. We still say Bush is a good 8th round pick and could prove to have interesting trade value if he secures the spot. McFadden in the late 7th could be worth a gamble, but if this becomes an RBBC, avoid both backs.

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RB ARIAN FOSTER HOU

FOM=9 ADP=60 KC=29 PLAY=15 1ST3=16

Risk: Steve Slaton is still looming behind Foster on the depth chart. The season ending injury from Ben Tate made this backfield less crowded, but there is still risk for a short leash on Foster.

Why We Like Him: Texans coach Gary Kubiak believes that Foster is “becoming a hell of a football player.” We heard rumblings of Foster’s lackadaisical attitude late last year, but he’s put them to bed while earning the complete trust of Houston’s coaching staff. “The way he practices and prepares, the way he goes about his business with blitz pickup, he’s going to be a good one,” added Kubiak. “He did a 360. … Something clicked. He’s doing everything we’re asking him to do.”

ESPN’s Paul Kuharsky confirms that the Texans “definitely” consider Foster to be their starting running back this season. Slaton will “ideally” be utilized as a change-of-pace back, primarily on passing downs. This is how we’ve seen the Texans backfield shaping up for some time now, and it makes all the sense in the world. Foster is a big back with solid all-around skills while Slaton struggles to run inside and has concerns about a heavy workload. Foster should be locked in as a low-end RB2 in fantasy drafts this year.

If you look at HOU’s schedule, you can see that whichever back gets the nod in week 1 could actually hold that spot because of a lack of tough opposing run defense competition in the early season. Before their week 7 BYE, they have 4 matchups against defenses no better than 10th worst against RBs. This gives them a #9 overall RB schedule. However, the value will be during the fantasy playoffs where they enjoy two good matchups in weeks 15 and 16, but you will need to start someone else in week 14 as they go up against BAL. Since any of these guys will be drafted as a flex RB, you will most likely have a serviceable RB2 to spot start that week anyway (see Mathews, Ryan Grant, Chris Wells for a week 14 start instead).

Preseason: Foster opened training camp with the Texans’ first-team offense. While Slaton picks up renewed steam in a “don’t forget about him” fantasy campaign, Foster continues to fly under the radar. Beat writer John McClain termed the current starter a “229-pound beast as a runner, blocker and receiver.”

In their first preseason game, Slaton 5/19 +1/-4. didn’t get a touch until the 3rd and was used as a returner. Foster played full 1st half but fumbled once. In their second game, Slaton rushed five times for 19 yards and added one reception for -4 yards against the Saints. Foster rushed six times for 28 yards and a touchdown and added two receptions for 15 yards against the Saints in Saturday’s preseason game. Foster was the best thing going for the Texans’ first-team offense, breaking off two straight impressive red-zone runs on his way to a 10-yard score. He did fumble on his last touch after he got his foot caught on the turf.

In week three, Foster officially got on the fantasy radar, he rushed 18 times for 110 yards and a touchdown and caught four passes for 16 yards against the Cowboys. Foster looked fantastic, showing power and decisive cutting ability against a quality defense. He bulldozed safety Alan Ball for a second TD only to have it called back on penalty. Foster stayed in with the first-team offense through the third quarter, coming off the field only to allow two carries for six yards to Steve Slaton (who later left the game with a turf tow injury). Sigh, good luck trying to get  this sleeper on the cheap after his national coming out party Saturday night.

Draft Plan: Foster still has a low ADP of 60, which means people may still not believe he will be the starter. And why not? He is a great 5th round value and a steal in rounds 6 or lower. There may not be many RB1s left in the 5th. he also has great BYE week matchups so he can serve your bench well even if you grabbed stud RB1 and RB2s.

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TE- JERMICHAEL FINLEY GB

FOM=8 ADP=61 KC=3 PLAY=5 1ST3=8

Risk: He did sustain an injury in 2009. Finley also has been on ever fantasy draft radar in America after an amazing preseason. His ‘sleeper’ tag could slip off him by late drafts.

Why We Like Him: Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin confirmed that Finley will be used in the slot this season. Donald Driver has been the Packers’ primary slot receiver for awhile now, but Philbin is going to spread the work around this year. Getting Finley in the slot is a matchup nightmare for opposing secondaries and it’s also one of Aaron Rodgers’ favorite spots to throw to. The upside with Finley is limitless this year.

Finely is on everyone’s radar after his breakout 676 yards and 5 TDs in 10 games last year. In 16 games, that would have been 1080 yards and 8 TDs, which would be top three TE material. He had 17 targets in the Red Zone and 8 inside the 10. Keep in mind he was only targeted once in week 1, 0 times in week 3 and had an injury that held him out of 3 games.

He came back from the injury like gangbusters, piling up 38 receptions in seven weeks including four weeks with at least five receptions. He ended up 5th in TE receiving yards and 5th in TE TDs and didn’t play the whole season.

There’s no doubt that Finley will be a key part of the Packers offense and he will enjoy the 5th best TE fantasy playoff schedule with the #1 projected TE matchup in the championship week 16. He is going in the 5th round so he will be there after the top 3 are off the board and will serve you well.

Preseason: Finley caught 4 for 48 yards and a TD @ SEA. He is third in the preseason of all RECEIVERS with 163 yards and 2 TDs and leads the NFl in First Down catches with 11 (next player has 7).

Finley hauled in six passes for 85 yards and a touchdown against the Colts in Thursday’s preseason game. He is constantly open, and Rodgers is putting the ball on his hands. He is a major mismatch for safeties, much less linebackers. Do not be afraid to target him as the No. 1 fantasy tight end.

The Rodgers-to-Finley connection is nearly unstoppable. As impressive as both players were down the stretch last season, they look even better this preseason. Finley could realistically top 80 receptions this year.

In week three, Finley hauled in six passes for 85 yards and a touchdown against the Colts. Finley is constantly open, and Aaron Rodgers is putting the ball on his hands. The freakishly athletic tight end is a laughable mismatch for safeties, much less linebackers. He’s now up to 12 receptions for 163 yards and two touchdowns in three exhibition games. Do not be afraid to target him as the No. 1 fantasy tight end.

Draft Plan: Probably the most hyped fantasy player in the NFL right now, but we STILL say he has more value than a 49 ADP. He should be the first TE taken off the board and that will require a 4th round grab. Skip your second WR and grab Finley instead. This prediction is not even based on his preseason performance. We have watched Finley in camp due to his ridiculous matchups in 2010 against Linebackers and coverage teams that cannot stop pass catching TEs, let alone this unstoppable combination of Rodgers and Finely. he should be the top TE off the board in 2010 and WILL be in 2011.

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TE- CHRIS COOLEY WAS

FOM=1 ADP=101 KC=2 PLAY=16 1ST3=10

Risk:Cooley had a season ending injury in 2009 and left the door wide open for TE Fred Davis to make a name for himself. Davis still looms and Cooley has to both get healthy and generate a good rapport with new QB Donavan McNabb before week one.

Why We Like Him: WAS threw the 13th most yards to TEs in 2009, but now Mike and Kyle Shanahan are in town and they brought in a QB in Donovan McNabb that has made his living throwing to TEs. Last year McNabb threw 969 passing yards and 8 TDs to TEs and WAS threw 850 and 11. WAS had the league’s second highest TE Red Zone Scoring% (46% of all their Red Zone TDs went to TEs). Kyle Shanahan drew up enough plays to TEs in HOU last season to total 912 yds and 6 TDs.

Mike Shanahan‘s last two DEN teams posted 38 passes / 24 runs and then 32 passes / 26 runs per game. Higher pass to rush ration then most people may think. Plus, offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan ran the passing offense in HOU that led the NFL in passing in 2009. These certainly appear to be good indicators for McNabb and his pass catchers.

Cooley “may see an expanded role in the offense” according to the Washington Post. Cooley was learning “everything all the receivers run” during OTAs. Cooley presents some risk, but WAS may have to rely heavily on him due to their thin WR situation. He’s also going to get more mismatch opportunities working out of the slot if they use him as they did in OTAs. Cooley has experience with new systems, after all he has learned several of them due to multiple coaching changes during his tenure at WAS.

Beat writer Rich Campbell says we should “get used to” Donovan McNabb-to-Chris Cooley. As Campbell points out, McNabb is looking to Cooley often as his first option and is also turning to his tight end when under pressure. Cooley is slipping in fantasy drafts because of Fred Davis’ emergence last year, but don’t be fooled. Cooley is the clear-cut starter and a great value pick.

Preseason: Cooley was McNabb’s favorite target in their first preseason game , lining up in the slot and getting open seemingly at will against a stout Bills secondary. Fred Davis didn’t get heavily involved until the second-team offense came on. Davis bested Cooley in week two with 5 more yards and more work. Neither Davis or Cooley made an impact in week 3.

Draft Plan: Cooley is offering insane value in fantasy drafts. We’ve seen him fall to the 10th and 11th rounds, and he’s going to be a top-10 tight end assuming good health. Climbing up boards but still under the radar as an ADP of 101 gives him excellent 8th round grab allowing you to skip the expensive TEs and get good starting TE value out of a cheaper 8th round Cooley.

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TE AARON HERNANDEZ / ROB GRONKOWSKI

FOM=26 ADP=278/279 KC=70 PLAY=23 1ST3=32

Risk: The Pats took TWO rookies TEs in the draft this year and there reall yis not much clarity at the position just yet. Alge Crumpler is also in the mix and a three way committee could be possible.

Why We Like Him: Rookie TE Aaron Hernandez has been the most heavily targeted Patriot through two preseason games. Running with both the first and second teams, Hernandez has 11 targets while second on the list is Julian Edelman with seven. Randy Moss and Wes Welker will dominate regular season targets in New England, but it’s not out of the question that Hernandez could rank third. He’s got sensational ability.

Hernandez and rookie TE Rob Gronkowski will likely compete for the starting spot, but Gronkowski has more value coming into the season.

The Patriots are playing it safe with Hernandez amid reports that he failed multiple drug tests at Florida. Gronkiwski missed the entire 2009 season with a back injury and is a pass catching TE.

With the 6th best Red Zone scoring in the NFl in 2009, still only 12% of those TDs went to TEs. The absolute worst first 4 week schedule of any NFL TE and an 8th toughest fantasy playoff schedule could mean a slow start all around for this group.

Preseason: With fellow rookie TE Aaron Hernandez unavailable during Thursday’s preseason game against the Rams, Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski capitalized on the extra playing time. Although Alge Crumpler got the start in the team’s third preseason contest, which is often considered the dress rehearsal for the regular season, Gronkowski outshined every receiver besides Randy Moss, who had a 65-yard touchdown. The rookie finished with three catches for 66 yards. The last time a Patriots rookie had two receiving touchdowns in a preseason game was Aug. 29, 2002. Hernandez has been the most heavily targeted Patriot through the first two preseason games.

Draft Plan: Their 278 and 279 ADPs mean early drafters are keen to their upside but no one has any clue which will emerge with the most value. Either is worth a flier off waivers but you can certainly afford to wait for a few weeks to see what develops first.

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TE ZACH MILLER OAK

FOM=11 ADP=111 KC=21 PLAY=13 1ST3=12

Risk: He plays for the Raiders. Only injuries or a steady diet of bracket coverage could keep Miller from making the leap to elite status this season. Miller was a top ten TE in 2009, but did not have a lot of TDs.

Why We Like Him: QB Jason Campbell threw 8 TDs in the Red Zone ALONE to TEs in WAS in 2009, this could mean good things for Miller.

Miller has been the only fantasy value player in OAK in years. He has also increased his fantasy value every year over the last three seasons. In three seasons, Miller has 166 catches for 2,027 yards and seven touchdowns. He led the Raiders in receiving in 2009 with 66 catches for 805 yards and three touchdowns.

Of course, his potential for scoring touchdowns is limited by the Raiders’ inability to move the ball. OAK was the WORST in the NFL in Red Zone appearances, but 7th in TE Red Zone Scoring%. So when they actually got there, they looked at Miller.

The Raiders plan to use Miller in the red zone more this season. Coach Tom Cable mentioned that the Raiders were “poor” inside opposing 20-yard lines last season, and they were, especially in the passing game. Miller scored just three touchdowns. With Jason Campbell upgrading the QB position immensely, Miller could flirt with 7-9 scores this season.

Miller is going in the 9th round and that is about right. You can feel good about him as a starter for the first half of the season and except for two really tough matchups before his BYE, he could have increased value if he and Campbell hit it off.

Preseason: Miller has clearly been Campbell’s favorite target in camp thus far, according to the Oakland Tribune’s Steve Corkran. When asked about Campbell and Miller, coach Tom Cable said that “those two guys are really starting to develop something, for sure.” This comes as no surprise since Miller is the best receiving option the Raiders have and Campbell has always been tight end-friendly. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Miller take a big step this season. Miller was a “one-man wrecking crew” in passing drills. Miller continued his productive preseason with 1 catch for a 27 yd TD against SF.

Draft Plan: With an ADP of 111 as a early 9th round TE, we say he has 8th round value and will be a productive TE1 throughout the season without having to give up an early pick on the TE position.

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TE BRENT CELEK PHI

FOM=6 ADP=66 KC=6 PLAY=6 1ST3=7

Risk: You look at how well Celek and Kolb played together in two starts in 2009 and you think it is a lock. However Kolb is still a big question mark with a flat preseason. Celek’s value is hinged on Kolb’s and that is not guarantee.

Why We Like Him: Celek is guaranteed at least 75 catches this season, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. Celek and new Eagles QB Kolb are best friends, and it reportedly showed during minicamps. The two were in sync all spring and others have speculated that Celek could push for 100 catches. We’re not going that far, but Celek did catch 76 balls last year. He’s a rock solid TE1 that fantasy owners can wait on in drafts.

Brent Celek finished second among tight ends last season in catches of 20 yards or more. Only Antonio Gates (18) had more plays of 20 yards or more than Celek (16). The Eagles are going back to a more traditional West Coast passing scheme under Kolb, but the seam will still be open for Celek. Kolb’s roommate on the road is set up to build on last year’s breakout.

Celek also exploded in the Red Zone in 2009, mainly due to the issues at RB for PHI. Luckily, not much has changed in the running game going into 2010. In just 2 games with Kolb in 2009, TE Brent Celek averaged 100+ yds/game (up from 75/game w/ McNabb). Kolb targeted Celek 20 times in those 2 games, 5 of which came in the Red Zone.

Celek’s 7th best overall TE schedule and 6th best overall fantasy playoff TE schedule will give him the potential to produce like any other TE1, but for a 5th or 6th round cost.

Preseason: Celek and Kolb are BFFs, and it reportedly showed during minicamps. The two were in sync all spring and others have speculated that Celek could push for 100 catches. A stretch, but Celek did catch 76 balls last year. He’s a rock solid TE1 that fantasy owners can wait on in drafts. Celek had only one catch for 19 yards in the week three preseason game at KC.

Draft Plan: Probably the most overlooked 2009 breakout start, Celek has solid value again this year. If a TE position run happens in the 4th and 5th, let Celek be the last TE you will want to grab in that bunch before waiting for a late round TE.

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DST

This one we will do a little differently. Since fantasyomatic.com advocates not drafting a DST too high and instead playing the matchups all year, we thought we would forecast the top 5 DST matchups for each week of the fantasy season so you can get an idea who you might be looking for on waivers each week and perhaps even allow you to see DST’s you can draft in your last round that can help you score points in the early weeks of the season.

In review, it looks like the following DSTs will haev some decent spot start value:

TB: Weeks 2, 3, 7, 10, 14 and 15 mean they lead the forecast with the most spot start possibilities. They are currently valued as a DST2 in early drafts, but we will go out on a limb and tell you that they can give you a lot of value off waivers (or even as a last round draft pick) if this longshot can get some steam going.

DAL: Could be the best undrafted DST to start in weeks 1 and 2. If you want to begin your spot-start campaign with a safe defense, let DAL be the DST.

MIA: 6 good spot start weeks mostly come late for MIA so you can expect to see them on your waiver wire by midseason. A good late season run could help you make your post season push.

NYG: Probably the closest spot start candidate to a tier 1 DST, the Giants have 6 good weeks to test their defense in 2010.

PHI: This clear cut top 5 DST might actually have higher value if they could stay healthy. With dominant matchups in weeks 2, 3 and 4, they could be the hottest fantasy DST out of the gate next to a Revis-Jets team.

Keep all these sleepers within their intended context. Do not reach for them over a higher valued player but make note of them at their individual positions in order to help you make tough draft and early season lineup decisions in 2010.

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