7/7/2011– To make best use of the lockout downtime we wanted to look at observations baed on data we already know. This turned our focus to 2010 performances. For a fresh look at 2010 data that could give us some insight into 2011 performances, we decided we could crunch numbers on Player Performances vs. the Strength of the Opponents they faced over the 2010 16 game schedule.
With final numbers on the strength of defenses against fantasy positions and final data on fantasy player performances within each offensive position, we have all we need. What we found is we have some overachievers and some who did not take advantage of their opportunities. We feel thing can be a great indicator of 2011 performances, and some data to eventually apply toward 2011 SOS numbers once the lockout is lifted.
Thus far in this series, we have looked at: Wide Receivers. In this article we look at Quarterbacks.
First, a look at the top 50 Fantasy QBs from 2010 and their SOS:
KEY: Rank= Fantasy Ranking 2010 SOS= Strength of Schedule for Player’s position for 2010 (#1 easiest / #32 toughest)
The main thing to take from this is that last year’s rankings should not dictate next years perceived value. However, you can see which players were able to overcome a tougher road to success and could extrapolate that they should continue to find success next year. These same players could even see significant spikes if their schedules were easier than in 2010.
The players who performed well in 2010 but had very easy schedules, might warrant some reservation before gambling on them again in 2011. Take a “wait and see” approach with these players this season, especially if they have much more difficult schedules in 2011.
Rather than look at this list and take these ranks to mean their value in 2011, you can equalize the top ten and instead determine that going into 2011, the players rank this way:
- Tom Brady (#16 QB SOS in 2011)
- Michael Vick (#1 QB SOS in 2011)
- Drew Brees (#17 QB SOS in 2011)
- Aaron Rodgers (#22 QB SOS in 2011)
- Josh Freeman (#15 QB SOS in 2011)
- Matt Ryan (#24 QB SOS in 2011)
- Peyton Manning (#11 QB SOS in 2011)
- Phillip Rivers (#10 QB SOS in 2011)
- Eli Manning (#5 QB SOS in 2011)
- Matt Schaub (#28 QB SOS in 2011)
Not as Good as They Looked Last Year (so, do not overpay for them this year):
1. Michael Vick: Vick took the fantasy world by storm last year and many championship teams benefitted from grabbing him off waivers and trading away their drafted starting QB for depth at other positions. His season was outstanding but he also did it against the 4th easiest set of opponents. He only saw his two tough opponents in partial games. We loved Kevin Kolb last season because of this schedule, Vick enjoyed the spoils. Vick and Kolb will enjoy the #1 QB SOS in 2011. You might also want to note that Vick only played in 11 games and therefore averaged 30 pfts/game (Brady averaged 22), but if you are okay with having him for only 11 games again this year, grab him. Just grab another QB in the first 8 rounds or you could have issues. We have seen him with ADP as high as #2 QB off the board so far this summer, if he falls to the top of the second round, take him…he just might be too risky for a top 12 pick, even with a great schedule. He is hovering around an ADP of 14 to date. Good place to grab him.
2. Matt Schaub: After his fantasy darling season in 2009, many owners grabbed him again to hope for just as a productive season. Impressively, no other QB took a snap for HOU in 2010, allowing Schaub to finish as the #10 overall fantasy QB. However, look closer, he has the second easiest road of all QBs last year.He did produce fantasy starter numbers, but keep in mind that he has the #28 QB SOS in 2011. You can expect things to be a little tougher this season, making him a top 15 at best.
3. Eli Manning: Early analysis had Manning enjoying a top 10 fantasy schedule during last year’s preseason. By years end, it proved to be even better at #3. He was part of a greta passing game with a rotating group of fantasy WRs including Hakeem Nicks, a predicted fantasy breakout WR last year. He likely could have enjoyed that sweet schedule even more if he cut down on his league leading 25 INTs. You could expect decent things again this year with his #5 QB SOS in 2011, but those INTs could still make him worth grabbing as a solid #2 QB. He is the #11 QB going in early ADP, and thats about right.
Better Than They Seemed (so take a flier on them this year):
1. Josh Freeman: Josh Freeman was waiver gold last season. He did an amazing job with one of the worst schedules for any fantasy QB. He split a lot of time with Josh Johnson last season and we do not see that happening again next year. He only had 6 INTs and became a safe weekly starter. His schedule gets even better with a #15 QB SOS in 2011. We see him keeping his top ten spot and out producing his current ADP as the 12th QB off the board. We like him as your starter if you decide to draft all other skill positions first, then fill your QB spot with whats left. Freeman should pay off for those that do not take one of the regular studs early.
2. Matt Ryan: Last year Matt Ryan had a top ten season with a bottom ten fantasy schedule. Roddy White helped propel him to great numbers and with the addition of Julio Jones this year, things could get exciting. His #23 SOS in 2011 isn’t too attractive, but its basically the same schedule he had in 2010. More weapons this time around could make him a good grab at his current ADP of around the 5th round. He would be a 6th round steal worthy of starting weekly.
3. Joe Flacco: Flacco just barely finished outside the top ten fantasy QBs at #11 in 2010. He did so with the single worst schedule for any fantasy QB. The passing game clicked when it needed to and Ray Rice racked up points in the passing game. It’s tough to tell what could happen with pass catchers in BAL this year, but Flacco will have a slightly easier schedule in 2011 (#26). He is a great second tier QB pickup as he is currently going with a cheap 7th round pricetag so far this summer.
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This post was written by Fantasy oMatic