This is the second in a series of articles where we break down every defense in the NFL and provide defense performance performance vs fantasy position projections for the 2012 season.
We have already recorded every player performance grade from the 2011 season (thanks to profootballfocus.com) and have provided those rankings here: 2012 DEFENSE RANKS. We then took those cumulative scores and compared them against the 2011 personnel for the same teams.
This gives us all the data we need to evaluate each defense vs fantasy QB, RB, WR and TE for the 2012 season and how they will change from their final 2011 rankings. Our goal is to provide the only “True” Strength of Schedule data for the 2012 Fantasy Football season.
After we break down each division, we will use the projected “Fantasy Points Against” rankings to project the Strength of Schedule for each Offensive player in the NFL to determine the easiest and toughest schedules.
This will help you pick the players who will have the least resistance to high production while ignoring the players with a tougher road than others. This is an edge you can only get on fantasyomatic.com. All other sites determine Strength of Schedule based on how defenses finished in 2011.
LEGEND:
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Final Rank Against ( vs Position): |
2011 Final “Fantasy Points Against” rankings (1-32) or projected 2012 rankings:
1 = Defense is Easiest Fantasy Matchup vs Position 32= Defense is Toughest Fantasy Matchup vs Position
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Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against): |
Rankings of production of ALL opposing Offensive Players at each position over the entire season:
1 = Defense faced the MOST PRODUCTIVE set of players at this position 32= Defense faced the LEAST PRODUCTIVE set of players at this position
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Overall:
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Total of all “Ratings” for all starting defensive players |
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Run:
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Total of all “Ratings” for all starting defensive players vs Run |
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Pass Rush:
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Total of all Starting D Line players 2011 QB Sacks, Hits and Pressures +Total Starting D Line Pass Rush Score +Total Starting D Line Pass Coverage Rating +Total Starting Free Safety Pass Rush Score |
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Pass Cov:
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Total Starting DB Pass Cover Score + Starting Free Safety Pass Cover Score + Starting Strong Safety Pass Cover Score |
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Offenses Faced by Week: |
Chart shows 2012 opponents for each defense. The points on the chart break down the QB, RB, WR and TE they face each week and plot the position from 1-32 in order of Offensive Production from 2011.ie: if a defense faces #1 QB in week 1, they face the top producing QB in the NFL that week. |
This is all the information on free agency, draft picks, offseason moves, injuries and all information you need to evaluate each Defense for the 2012 season.
NFC SOUTH:
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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| 2011 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2011 Final Rank Against ( vs Position) | 16 | 1 | 15 | 18 | ||||
| 2011 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 4 | 4 | 15 | 1 | ||||
| 2011 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| -104.2 | -60.8 | 2.2 | -2.2 | |||||
| 2012 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2012 Projected Rank Against ( vs Position) | 19 | 7 | 25 | 13 | ||||
| 2012 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 3 | 5 | 5 | 22 | ||||
| 2012 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| -47.9 | -18.9 | 12.6 | -23.9 | |||||
| Breakdown | ||||||||
| After losing its final 10 games of the 2011 season, the Bucs were a team in need of a transfusion of new talent. It began with the hiring of ex-Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano and continued when the Bucs came away with the largest haul in free agency.
The Bucs defense got off to a very fast start by landing cornerback Eric Wright and defensive tackles Amobi Okoye and Gary Gibson. A former first-round pick, Okoye started 59 games over the past five seasons, and will likely be part of a three-man rotation with 2011 starters Gerald McCoy and Brian Price. Entering his age-24 campaign, Okoye has upside, and is capable of providing an interior pass rush. He registered four sacks in 16 appearances with the Bears last season. Tampa Bay also retained cornerback Ronde Barber and defensive end Michael Bennett. Barber will likely begin his 16th NFL campaign as the Bucs’ slot corner, but could slide further down the depth chart depending on his early-season play. Perhaps the league’s worst starting corner in 2011, Barber shouldn’t approach the 996 snaps he played last season, and is being brought back for his leadership as much as anything else. The National Football Post reports Barber could see time at safety in 2012. The Bucs’ strong offseason continued at the NFL draft, when they initially traded down in the first round to draft highly coveted Alabama safety Mark Barron. Tampa Bay selected a third impact player when it traded up in the second round to draft Nebraska linebacker Lavonte David. Other draft picks include West Virginia inside linebacker Najee Goode and West Virginia corner Keith Tandy. Bucs GM Mark Dominik is holding out hope that DE Da’Quan Bowers (Achilles’ surgery) will play late in the 2012 season. It’s a long shot, but does confirm Bowers will be placed on PUP rather than I.R. “He’s going to do his rehab with Shannon Merrick, who is one of the best rehab gurus in the NFL, which is why guys have been able to come back like they have at a quicker pace,” Dominik said. “We hope it does the same thing for him.” New Bucs coach Greg Schiano believes third-year DT Gerald McCoy “can be a dominant force in this league.” McCoy has actually been a better run defender than pass rusher through two seasons, but Schiano hopes to maximize his all-around talent. “He plays defensive tackle the way I like,’’ Schiano said. “He’s a penetrating guy who can change direction. We’ve got to keep him healthy.” Through two seasons, the Bucs have gone 11-8 with McCoy in the lineup. They’re 3-10 when he’s been out. With regards to the coaching staff, Schiano hired ex-Giants QBs coach Mike Sullivan as offensive coordinator, ex-Dolphins LBs coach Bill Sheridan as defensive coordinator and added Butch Davis as an assistant coach. When you examine the entire scope of moves that the Bucs made, they have done the most to improve their team during the 2012 offseason. In 2011, they faced top 15 talent at every offensive position and in 2012 they actually face just as tough of a set. |
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| 2012 Offenses Faced by Week (each position) | ||||||||
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Carolina Panthers |
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| 2011 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2011 Final Rank Against ( vs Position) | 11 | 2 | 24 | 16 | ||||
| 2011 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 15 | 24 | 11 | 9 | ||||
| 2011 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| -5 | -.6 | 8 | -20.9 | |||||
| 2012 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2012 Projected Rank Against ( vs Position) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 20 | ||||
| 2012 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 2 | 9 | 7 | 24 | ||||
| 2012 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| -2.5 | -16.6 | 8.5 | -20.9 | |||||
| Breakdown | ||||||||
| The Panthers run defense was gold for opposing fantasy RBs in 2011. Mainly due to an early streak of major season-ending injuries on their defensive line.
Those players are back in 2012. Panthers WLB Thomas Davis (ACL surgery) expects to be ready for training camp. Davis says his knee feels better than the past two surgeries. His optimism has become a right of spring, as this is his third ACL recovery in three years. He can make history by returning at a high level of play. Panthers SLB James Anderson expects the Carolina defensive to dial up more pressure in 2012. It will be Sean McDermott’s second year as defensive coordinator, and he comes from the blitz-heavy Jim Johnson school. “I’m quite sure when coach McDermott gets his whole, full system in, you’ll see everybody going after the quarterback,” said Anderson. McDermott only had about five weeks to install his defensive last season, after the lockout ended in late July.
The Panthers were in a difficult situation during the 2012 free agency period due to a salary cap scenario that jeopardized their ability to be an aggressive player in the market.With the money the Panthers did have available, they brought in free-agent safety Reggie Smith. However, outside of a seven-game stint to close out 2010, Smith has been a reserve and special teamer in 44 games dating back to 2008Another interesting development in the offseason was that Panthers linebacker Thomas Davis waived an $8 million offseason roster bonus so that he could remain with the Panthers and avoid being released. Carolina also re-signed defensive end/outside linebacker Antwan Applewhite. A favorite of coach Ron Rivera, Applewhite gets high marks for special teams prowess and locker room presence. He’s also flashed pass rushing ability going back to his early career with the Chargers. Applewhite will be a backup in 2012 after recording 21 tackles and two sacks last season. With respect to the 2012 NFL draft, the Panthers are looking for big things from Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly , whom they took with the draft’s No. 9 overall pick. The Panthers also drafted Oklahoma defensive end Frank Alexander, Coastal Carolina cornerback Josh Norman and California safety D.J. Campbell. The Panthers made whatever moves they could with their salary cap space, but they hope the talent they have added on defense will make a difference on their record. Still to be determined will be the health of linebackers Thomas Davis and Jon Beason, who have been hit hard with injuries. Even with another big year from Cam Newton, the defense will have to step up for the Panthers. With a depleted Defensive Line in 2011, the Panthers were the second worst defense against fantasy RBs while only facing the 24th most talented set of RB opponents. However do not expect much of an increase in production as the Panthers face top ten talent at QB, RB and WR in 2012. |
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| 2012 Offenses Faced by Week (each position) | ||||||||
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Atlanta Falcons |
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| 2011 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2011 Final Rank Against ( vs Position) | 23 | 31 | 12 | 22 | ||||
| 2011 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 5 | 5 | 16 | 4 | ||||
| 2011 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| 98.8 | 56.9 | 46.6 | -5.2 | |||||
| 2012 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2012 Projected Rank Against ( vs Position) | 25 | 25 | 13 | 26 | ||||
| 2012 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 8 | 20 | 11 | 23 | ||||
| 2012 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| 106.4 | 41.8 | 45.6 | 16.9 | |||||
| Breakdown | ||||||||
| The Atlanta Falcons would certainly like to take advantage of the New Orleans Saints’ issues and rise up to capture the NFC South division title in 2012.
The key offseason moves that the Falcons made to try to bridge the gap were signing free-agent linebacker Lofa Tatupu to a one-year deal after Tatupu was unable to get on the field in 2011 coming off of twin knee surgeries. His signing all but assured that highly graded MLB Curtis Lofton was allowed to walk in free agency. Pro Football Focus rated Tatupu as one of the league’s worst linebackers in 2010. They also traded a seventh-round draft pick to Philadelphia for corner Asante Samuel, before inking Samuel to a three-year, $18.5 million contract. Samuel will presumably slide in at left cornerback, with Brent Grimes seeing slot work and Dunta Robinson manning the right side. Still a playmaker at age 31, Samuel has earned a Pro Bowl berth in four of the past five seasons while averaging 6.5 interceptions over the last six. The Falcons haven’t upgraded their pass rush much, but they absolutely have a good-looking secondary. However, the biggest key to Atlanta’s offseason was how many of its own free agents it was able to reach deals with. Atlanta re-signed safety Thomas DeCoud, defensive end Kroy Biermann, defensive end John Abraham and corner Brent Grimes. The Falcons also restructured the contract of corner Dunta Robinson. As for the draft, the Falcons were spectators for quite awhile, as their first turn on the clock came at overall pick No. 55. The Falcons selected Troy defensive end Jonathan Massaquoi, Mississippi State safety Charles Mitchell and South Carolina nose tackle Travian Robertson for defensive depth. While this draft class won’t make a huge impact, the team’s main offseason focus was to try to keep as many of their key free agents as they could. Overall, they succeeded in that strategy and now we will see if they can leapfrog the Saints in the NFC South this season. Their opponents get a bit easier this year, especially at RB and they hope to meet a Saints offense that is not at full strength after a rough offseason and who have yet to sign their top free agent QB, Brees. They definitely improved in their secondary and should see a leap in defensive production against fantasy WRs. |
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| 2012 Offenses Faced by Week (each position) | ||||||||
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New Orleans Saints |
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| 2011 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2011 Final Rank Against ( vs Position) | 7 | 10 | 6 | 27 | ||||
| 2011 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 17 | 25 | 18 | 16 | ||||
| 2011 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| -62.7 | 2.6 | -32.6 | -28.2 | |||||
| 2012 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2012 Projected Rank Against ( vs Position) | 14 | 18 | 6 | 28 | ||||
| 2012 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 5 | 15 | 10 | 12 | ||||
| 2012 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| 5.2 | 37.5 | -18.3 | -18.8 | |||||
| Breakdown | ||||||||
| The biggest news in the NFL on defense was the hit that the Saints took due to bounty suspensions.
The Saints have paid fines, have lost head coach Sean Payton for the year and will have general manager Mickey Loomis and assistant head coach Joe Vitt suspended as well. Saints GM Mickey Loomis’ eight-game bounty scandal suspension will not begin until Week 1. Whereas coach Sean Payton’s suspension begins on April 1 and Rams DC Gregg Williams’ is effective immediately, the NFL was nice enough to let Loomis conduct business during the draft and 2012 training camp. In other words, Roger Goodell felt Payton and Williams were guilty of more wrongdoing than Loomis. Loomis, of course, will be working with a much less attractive deck. The Saints traded their 2012 first-rounder for Mark Ingram, and their 2012 second-rounder has been stripped by the league’s punishment.They lost a second-round draft pick, defensive end Will Smith for four games and might lose linebacker Jonathan Vilma for the entire season. In free agency, the Saints were able to sign wide receiver Marques Colston, linebacker Chris Chamberlain, linebacker Curtis Lofton, linebacker David Hawthorne, defensive lineman Remi Ayodele, defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley and extended corner Jabari Greer. However, other moves could mean that their defense won’t be as hobbled as it may seem. For example, even though MLB Jonathan Vilma is likely out for the entire season, the Saints agreed to terms with MLB Curtis Lofton on a five-year contract.Considered a ”two-down player,” Lofton is a prototype 4-3 middle linebacker and figures to improve on Vilma’s production. Lofton is very much an upgrade in run defense, an upgrade in pass rush, although Vilma has a little bit of an advantage in coverage. Lofton has recorded 90-plus tackles in each of his first four seasons and has never missed a game to injury in his NFL career. Vilma is still very much in danger of being handed his walking papers and this suspension could have let the Saints off the hook. Lofton will move back to the middle with David Hawthorne on the weak side and Scott Shanle on the strong side. Chris Chamberlain, signed away from the Rams, could end up competing for snaps with Shanle. One thing they already realized before they found out the results of which players would be suspended and for how long was they needed to be proactive in free agency. Because of the moves the Saints made in free agency, they have a better outlook. OLB Chris Chamberlain is reunited with defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, under whom Chamberlain spent the last three seasons. The 26-year-old started 13-of-16 games in 2011, racking up 81 tackles, two sacks, one forced fumble, and an interception. Look for Chamberlain to compete with Scott Shanle to start at weak-side ‘backer. Saints signed DT Brodrick Bunkley to a five-year, $25 million contract with $9 million guaranteed. Bunkley has only six sacks in six seasons, but he is an effective one-gap, 4-3 nose tackle. He projects as an upgrade. Another positive note was that the Saints restructured contracts with defensive end Will Smith, guard Jahri Evans, linebacker Jonathan Vilma and corner Patrick Robinson. Those deals will help to free up the cash needed to ink Drew Brees to a new deal, hopefully sooner than later. As for the Saints draft, there wasn’t that much to get excited about. The Saints didn’t own a pick until No. 90 overall, so the cream of the crop was already off the big board by then. The Saints drafted Canadian defensive tackle Akiem Hicks and Samford safety Corey White. Sadly the caliber of their offensive opponents will increase in 2012, making things that much more difficult for this team in shambles. |
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| 2012 Offenses Faced by Week (each position) | ||||||||










