This is the next in a series of articles where we break down every defense in the NFL and provide defense performance performance vs fantasy position projections for the 2012 season.
We have already recorded every player performance grade from the 2011 season (thanks to profootballfocus.com) and have provided those rankings here: 2012 DEFENSE RANKS. We then took those cumulative scores and compared them against the 2011 personnel for the same teams.
This gives us all the data we need to evaluate each defense vs fantasy QB, RB, WR and TE for the 2012 season and how they will change from their final 2011 rankings. Our goal is to provide the only “True” Strength of Schedule data for the 2012 Fantasy Football season.
After we break down each division, we will use the projected “Fantasy Points Against” rankings to project the Strength of Schedule for each Offensive player in the NFL to determine the easiest and toughest schedules.
This will help you pick the players who will have the least resistance to high production while ignoring the players with a tougher road than others. This is an edge you can only get on fantasyomatic.com. All other sites determine Strength of Schedule based on how defenses finished in 2011.
LEGEND:
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Final Rank Against ( vs Position): |
2011 Final “Fantasy Points Against” rankings (1-32) or projected 2012 rankings:
1 = Defense is Easiest Fantasy Matchup vs Position 32= Defense is Toughest Fantasy Matchup vs Position
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Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against): |
Rankings of production of ALL opposing Offensive Players at each position over the entire season:
1 = Defense faced the MOST PRODUCTIVE set of players at this position 32= Defense faced the LEAST PRODUCTIVE set of players at this position
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Overall:
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Total of all “Ratings” for all starting defensive players |
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Run:
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Total of all “Ratings” for all starting defensive players vs Run |
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Pass Rush:
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Total of all Starting D Line players 2011 QB Sacks, Hits and Pressures +Total Starting D Line Pass Rush Score +Total Starting D Line Pass Coverage Rating +Total Starting Free Safety Pass Rush Score |
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Pass Cov:
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Total Starting DB Pass Cover Score + Starting Free Safety Pass Cover Score + Starting Strong Safety Pass Cover Score |
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Offenses Faced by Week: |
Chart shows 2012 opponents for each defense. The points on the chart break down the QB, RB, WR and TE they face each week and plot the position from 1-32 in order of Offensive Production from 2011.ie: if a defense faces #1 QB in week 1, they face the top producing QB in the NFL that week. |
This is all the information on free agency, draft picks, offseason moves, injuries and all information you need to evaluate each Defense for the 2012 season.
AFC WEST:
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Oakland Raiders |
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| 2011 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2011 Final Rank Against ( vs Position) | 2 | 6 | 3 | 15 | ||||
| 2011 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 19 | 21 | 26 | 23 | ||||
| 2011 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| 41.1 | 52.8 | 38.5 | 1.7 | |||||
| 2012 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2012 Projected Rank Against ( vs Position) | 3 | 5 | 7 | 15 | ||||
| 2012 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 24 | 21 | 19 | 29 | ||||
| 2012 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| 38.6 | 50.7 | 21 | -2.7 | |||||
| Breakdown | ||||||||
| A new coaching staff will be running the show now in Oakland, as Dennis Allen takes over as head coach and new defensive coordinator Jason Tarver.
New GM Reggie McKenzie feel into a terrible situation. Faced with serious salary cap issues, no real assets that they could afford to trade away and holding no draft picks until overall pick No. 95 at the end of the third round—a compensatory pick at that—McKenzie’s hands were tied firmly behind his back. There was only so much he could do with the hand that he was dealt.
With the few draft picks the Raiders had to work with, they drafted outside linebacker Miles Burris from San Diego State. A relentless pass rusher at San Diego State, Burris’ best position in the long term probably projects as SAM ‘backer. In OTA’s, Burris worked with the first-team defense at weak-side linebacker with Aaron Curry getting time off. Burris is learning both outside spots during the instructional workouts.They also added defensive end Jack Crawford from Penn State, defensive lineman Christo Bilukidi from Georgia State and outside linebacker Nathan Stupar from Penn State.
McKenzie tried to address the positions that he could, but he didn’t have much to work with in regards to picks, so this draft class will be hard-pressed to make a significant impact on the Raiders. As for offseason additions, the Raiders signed DE Dave Tollefson, LB Philip Wheeler, CB Patrick Lee, CB Shawntae Spencer and traded Bruce Campbell to Carolina for RB Mike Goodson. The Raiders were also able to restructure the contracts for veterans Richard Seymour and Michael Huff. Raiders also signed CB Ronald Bartell, formerly of the Rams, to a one-year, $3 million contract. Bartell lacked ball skills in St. Louis but had success shadowing opposing No. 1 receivers before last season’s neck surgery. Given a clean bill of health by the doctors of the Rams and Raiders, Bartell should slot in as Stanford Routt’s replacement. Raiders CB Ronald Bartell is fully healed from the neck injury that forced him to miss all but one game with the Rams last season. There was speculation Oakland might install a 3-4 when ex-Packers exec Reggie McKenzie was hired as GM, but McKenzie tabbed 4-3 proponent Dennis Allen as head coach. “We’re going to do what we always do — run four man,” Kelly said. “I’m just assuming. Heard he’s a guy that mixes it up, so you never know.” We’ll know for sure when OTAs start. 300-pound Tommy Kelly would be their best attempt at a “zero-technique” anchor on the 3-4. Richard Seymour and Lamarr Houston would be the defensive ends, with Matt Shaughnessy and perhaps Dave Tollefson at outside linebacker. Oakland would be much better off focusing on a 4-3 defensive scheme this season. Dennis Allen named NT Travis Ivey when asked about players sticking out at offseason workouts so far. Ivey, 25, is a 6-foot-4, 341-pound nose tackle, and Oakland is looking for an anchor for its new 3-4 fronts. “He’s a big powerful guy inside who has the ability to be a good run-stopping player,” said Allen. “We’ll see where we’re at when we get through camp and see if he’s good enough to make the team.” Raiders MLB Rolando McClain remains at risk of league discipline for his 180-day jail sentence, but participated in OTAs. McClain is appealing his conviction on four charges. The Raiders’ allowance of McClain to practice suggests he very much remains a part of the team’s 2012 plans, and isn’t necessarily being considered for team-imposed discipline. He should be Oakland’s starting middle linebacker in Dennis Allen’s new defense. The Raiders have their work cut out for them in 2012. They do face nearly the exact same level of opponents at QB, RB, WR and TE, but their personnel grades drop at every position this season. |
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| 2012 Offenses Faced by Week (each position) | ||||||||
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San Diego Chargers |
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| 2011 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2011 Final Rank Against ( vs Position) | 3 | 22 | 13 | 3 | ||||
| 2011 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 21 | 12 | 27 | 32 | ||||
| 2011 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| -7.4 | 14.8 | -2.1 | -10.6 | |||||
| 2012 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2012 Projected Rank Against ( vs Position) | 11 | 17 | 19 | 2 | ||||
| 2012 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 12 | 6 | 15 | 28 | ||||
| 2012 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| 23.1 | 36.5 | -4.7 | 4.4 | |||||
| Breakdown | ||||||||
| Chargers need help defending QBs. Their defense allowed a 68.2 Total QBR last season, highest in the league.
Prior to the start of the draft, the Chargers addressed a number of positions in the offseason, reaching a deal with outside linebacker Jarret Johnson. The Ravens wanted Johnson, but not enough to keep him in Purple. Jets coach Rex Ryan was also interested in reuniting with Johnson. Turning 30 in August, Johnson has established a niche as one of the league’s most effective outside linebackers against the run and least effective in reaching the quarterback. He won’t fill San Diego’s need for a pass rusher, but he can form an effective tag-team with Antwan Barnes. Johnson will also add a hard edge to a defense that had gone soft.
Chargers signed safety Atari Bigby, formerly of the Seahawks. Bigby made two starts as a rotational safety in Seattle last year, recording 18 tackles and a sack. He’ll likely compete for the same role with the Chargers following the departure of SS Steve Gregory to New England. Chargers brought in LB Demorrio Williams, formerly of the Chiefs. The 31-year-old will stay in the AFC West as a backup to Takeo Spikes and Donald Butler in San Diego. San Diego also brought back a number of players, like nose tackle Antonio Garay and defensive end Luis Castillo. Castillo, 28, has played 16-game seasons just twice since entering the NFL in 2004. He missed all but one game in 2011 with a fractured left leg. The Chargers also came up with a very good draft class. They snagged linebacker Melvin Ingram from South Carolina at No. 18 overall. Ingram seems like awfully good value for the Chargers who have been looking to fill that spot since Merriman got hurt. They have players who can bring pressure like Barnes, Phillips and Garay. Now more pressure. Ingram shined in a larger role during his senior season as an edge rusher, but the majority of his production came from the defensive tackle spot on third downs. Blessed with an amazing closing burst, Ingram excels when using his stouter frame to leverage and press the pocket. However, he only has 31.5″ arms, which likely turned off a few teams. Ingram is a creative defensive coordinator’s dream with the ability to line up and rush the passer from multiple angles. They also helped the defenseby drafting lineman Kendall Reyes from UConn and LSU safety Brandon Taylor. Reyes was a 4-3 defensive tackle at UConn, Reyes goes 6-foot-4, 299 and enjoyed a breakout senior season with 13.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Considered a “relentless” defender, Reyes will play five-technique end in San Diego’s 3-4. When you look at all of the additions the Chargers made on both sides of the ball, there is no reason they should not be back in contention for the AFC West title. They will continue to have a hard time against opposing TEs, they were one of the worst defenses against fantasy TEs again in 2011, but faced the EASIEST set of opposing TEs all season. Their pass coverage personnel improved and their opposing WRs production should drop. A huge increase in personnel grades for pass rush mean they should be able to do much better against opposing fantasy QBs in 2012 as well. |
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| 2012 Offenses Faced by Week (each position) | ||||||||
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Kansas City Chiefs |
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| 2011 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2011 Final Rank Against ( vs Position) | 9 | 11 | 29 | 6 | ||||
| 2011 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 6 | 3 | 10 | 22 | ||||
| 2011 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| 84.6 | 74.6 | 11.5 | 12.7 | |||||
| 2012 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2012 Projected Rank Against ( vs Position) | 17 | 18 | 18 | 4 | ||||
| 2012 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 32 | 14 | 3 | 7 | ||||
| 2012 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| 86.1 | 77.4 | 24.1 | 4.1 | |||||
| Breakdown | ||||||||
| The Kansas City Chiefs will welcome back their injured stars from the 2011 season and hope better health awaits them in 2012.
In regards to free agency, the Chiefs landed cornerback Stanford Routt, who turns 29 before the season. He is a press-man corner and fits Romeo Crennel’s scheme. While he allowed too many touchdown passes (8) and committed too many penalties (17) last year, Routt posted career highs in interceptions (4) and pass breakups (15). Pro Football Focus graded Routt as the NFL’s 19th-best corner in terms of coverage. While Carr will command more money, PFF had him 21st.
Kansas City also worked on their existing players and signed defensive tackle Amon Gordon to a new deal A journeyman former fifth-round pick, Gordon appeared in all 16 games for the first time in his career last season, tallying 23 tackles and two sacks in just 85 snaps. He’ll be used as a rotational pass-rushing specialist in 2012. Defensive end Tyson Jackson restructured his contract Jackson finally came close to playing up to his draft status in 2011, excelling against the run. The Chiefs invested their No. 11 overall draft pick in Memphis defensive tackle Dontari Poe The Chiefs didn’t re-sign Kelly Gregg, so Poe should be starting day 1. Probably will be a 2 down linemen. One of the more polarizing players in the draft, the 346-pound Poe saw his draft stock rise meteorically at the combine after running a sub 5.0 40-yard dash and putting up a combine-high 44 bench reps. He’s one of the classic examples of the debate between potential and previous production. His size and speed suggest he could be elite in the NFL, but just eight tackles for loss and one sack against Conference USA opponents in his final season is a concern. Kansas City had a vacancy at nose tackle following Kelly Gregg’s retirement. Poe could emerge as a dominant force in the middle of Crennel’s 3-4 defense or fall flat along the likes of former first-rounders Ryan Sims or Jimmy Kennedy. The Kansas City Star’s Adam Teicher believes sixth-round pick NT Jerrell Powe could get significant playing time as a rookie. Both of the Chiefs’ 2010 nose tackles, Ron Edwards and Shaun Smith, are free agents, and will both be over age 30 by Week 1. There’s still a pretty good chance Edwards is eventually re-signed, but Powe has certainly been drafted into the right situation if he was hoping for immediate playing time. They finished their draft with Alabama cornerback De’Quan Menzie, San Diego State defensive tackle Jerome Long. Chiefs SS Eric Berry tore his left ACL on September 11, 2011. “I’m doing very good,” he said. The Chiefs expect Berry to make a “full football return” before training camp starts in late July. Berry has progressed without setbacks since tearing his left ACL in Week 1 last season, and might even get in some work at the Chiefs’ June minicamp. Coach Crennel expects to see “good improvement” from 2011 third-round OLB Justin Houston this season. Houston closed out his rookie season with 5.5 sacks in his final five games after a late-season promotion. The Chiefs believe he can be a pass-rushing complement to right outside linebacker Tamba Hali. “He’s 270 pounds, and he can run,” ILB Derrick Johnson said. “Tamba even looks at him and he wishes he was that big and could run like that.” Injuries made it really tough to evaluate the Chiefs defense vs fantasy players last season. Without Berry and any depth in the secondary, they faced some of the easiest QBs in the league and still finished bottom 10. This year they face the EASIEST set of fantasy QBs in the NFL and have a lot more personnel to work with. Expect a jump vs QBs but some drop against WRs due to the strength of opponents. |
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| 2012 Offenses Faced by Week (each position) | ||||||||
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Denver Broncos |
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| 2011 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2011 Final Rank Against ( vs Position) | 6 | 13 | 19 | 20 | ||||
| 2011 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 11 | 8 | 9 | 18 | ||||
| 2011 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| 63.2 | 58.1 | 14.9 | -7.9 | |||||
| 2012 Fantasy Defense | ||||||||
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||
| 2012 Projected Rank Against ( vs Position) | 5 | 5 | 18 | 29 | ||||
| 2012 Opponent Scoring Rank (Position Scored Against) | 25 | 1 | 13 | 1 | ||||
| 2012 Defensive Personnel Ratings | Overall | Run | Pass Rush | Pass Cov | ||||
| 49.3 | 33.1 | 19.1 | -2.3 | |||||
| Breakdown | ||||||||
| John Fox dug into his coaching past to find a new defensive coordinator. The Broncos hired Jack Del Rio to replace Dennis Allen as the team’s defensive coordinator, reuniting Fox with his first defensive coordinator from Carolina.Denver also hired strength and conditioning coach Luke Richesson, who spent the last three seasons on Del Rio’s staff in Jacksonville. Richesson replaces Rich Tuten, whose contract was not renewed after 17 seasons with the Broncos.
Del Rio, a former NFL linebacker, joined Fox’s first staff in Carolina in 2002. After one year in that role, in which the Panthers’ defense improved from the No. 31-ranked defense in 2001 to No. 2 in the NFL, Del Rio was hired to be head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Del Rio inherits a Denver defense that improved from last in the league in 2010 to No. 20 this year under Fox and Allen, with three players (cornerback Champ Bailey, linebacker Von Miller and defensive end Elvis Dumervil) who were voted into the Pro Bowl. A fourth player, safety Brian Dawkins, made the Pro Bowl roster as an alternate. Del Rio’s defenses consistently ranked among the top 10 in yards and points allowed from 2003-06, but slid from 2007-09. The low point came in 2010, when the Jaguars ranked No. 28 in yards allowed and No. 27 in points allowed. Jacksonville climbed back to No. 6 in yards allowed this season, though defensive coordinator Mel Tucker (not Del Rio, as he had in earlier years) called plays. First-year defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio certainly has big plans for Miller. Del Rio has likened Miller to Peter Boulware, a linebacker/rush end combo player Del Rio coached in his three seasons with the Baltimore Ravens (1999-2001). Del Rio is comparing Von Miller to former Ravens pass rusher Peter Boulware. Boulware was an up-down defensive end/outside ‘backer hybrid, used similarly to Miller’s 2011 rookie role. Del Rio served as Baltimore’s linebackers coach from 1999-2001, a period during which Boulware averaged nearly 11 sacks and three forced fumbles per season. Boulware broke out as a first-team All Pro with 15 sacks in 2001, before Del Rio took Carolina’s defensive coordinator job. Broncos signed cornerback Drayon Florence,formerly of the Bills. Even after losing a step in 2011, the 31-year-old can still hold his own in coverage. Florence should represent an upgrade on Chris Harris as nickelback. Broncos then agreed to terms with CB Tracy Porter, reuniting him with the quarterback he intercepted in Super Bowl XLIV. The best cornerback left on the market, Porter had previously visited Tennessee and Cincinnati. Still just 25, Porter can start opposite Champ Bailey, allowing him to re-enter free agency in his prime after playing out the season on a prove-it deal. Porter will be the RCB in base packages, but cover opposing No. 2 receivers when the Broncos use Bailey to “shadow” No. 1s. Though Porter covered the slot with New Orleans, Drayton Florence is ticketed for that role in Denver. Porter will be the RCB in base packages, but cover opposing No. 2 receivers when the Broncos use Champ Bailey to “shadow” No. 1s. Though Porter covered the slot with New Orleans, Drayton Florence is ticketed for that role in Denver. Denver also added safety Mike Adams defensive tackle Justin Bannan. Then, re-signed linebacker Joe Mays, linebacker Wesley Woodyard and defensive tackle Marcus Thomas. In addtion, the Broncos were able to free up some salary cap space when defensive tackle Kevin Vickerson accepted a pay cut to stay in Denver. As for the 2012 draft, the Broncos decided to trade down and out of the first round, acquiring more draft picks in the process. They wound up taking Cincinnati defensive tackle Derek Wolfe, Arizona State cornerback Omar Bolden, Tennessee defensive end Malik Jackson and Kentucky linebacker Danny Trevathan. The Broncos have put all their eggs in the Manning basket. Hopefully he will remain healthy and deliver on his expected high level of past performance. The Broncos will face the #1 RBs and TEs in the NFL this season, so expect their ranks to take a hit. Their run defense personnel grade out a lot lower this season than last, so they could be weak against those top RBs. |
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| 2012 Offenses Faced by Week (each position) | ||||||||
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[...] commentary on team defenses that I’ve seen. Lots of good stuff here – will link to the AFC West article for my fellow Broncos [...]