New Orleans Saints

Jimmy Graham (ADP: 17) Round: 2
David Thomas (ADP: 300+) Round:
John Gilmore (ADP: 300+) Round:
Mike Higgins (ADP: 300+) Round:

Graham had elite totals in overall targets (led all tight ends and led second place by more than 20 targets), vertical targets (ranked second), overall yards (second), vertical yards (first), stretch vertical yards (first and more than 100 yards in front of second place) and short pass targets (second). He has the4th most favorable schedule among tight ends and faces a much lower set of cover personnel than Gronk.

Investing a draft pick in Graham may be the ultimate in buy high. If he plays to last year’s level, the investment will be worth it but if he has any type of drop-off, the price will not equal the production level. You will need to invest a second round pick for him in most leagues so the risk is high.

Graham is obviously one of the two best tight ends in fantasy football but how high in a draft should one take him? If he were to end up repeating last year’s point total (187), one could make a to select him in front of many of the WR1 candidates. If his point total drops off to more along the lines of 150-160, he falls below rating ahead of the WR1s. The thought here is that he will drop to that 150-160 point level and thus should not be selected as long as a WR1 is on the board. However, there will not be a league in the US that lets him drop that far. If you want him, you will pay for it.
David Thomas:

Saints TE David Thomas (concussions) is expected back healthy this season. After suffering a concussion in Week 3 last season, Thomas returned in Week 9, but was placed on injured reserve a week later, likely due to a relapse. Although it was fair to wonder about his future in the league, all signs point to Thomas making a full recovery in time for the 2012 season. He could have value in the scheme if Grham goes down, but he falls significantly short on the physical specimen that Graham is on the field.

New England Patriots

Rob Gronkowski (ADP: 16) Round: 2
Aaron Hernandez (ADP: 54) Round: 5
Jake Ballard (ADP: 300+) Round:
Daniel Fells (ADP: 300+) Round:
Visanthe Shiancoe (ADP: 300+) Round:
Dan Gronkowski (ADP: 300+) Round:

However, 2011 will be extremely tough to repeat. For one, Brandon Lloyd his in the mix, and that could eat into some of Gronk’s stats. For another, 18-touchdown seasons are tough to duplicate, even for someone with such an amazing skillset.

Finally, it seems like some are drafting Gronkowski as a first-rounder in their leagues as early mocks indicate. Th ePatriots have a deep TE core and also have one of the league’s worst schedules for TEs and WRs. While a huge regression may not be in store for Gronk, temper expectations. A season like 75/1100/13 may be much more reasonable.

His insanne 2011 campaign will change the way fantasy owners draft TEs, but if you are going to reach for a TE in the second round, make it Jimmy Graham this year instead. Gronk is too expensive condiering all the logical reasons for regression.

Aaron Hernandez:

Hernandez saw 10-plus targets in four of New England’s final six games last season. He lined up as an in-line tight end only 29 percent of the time and spent another eight percent in the backfield. Seven of his nine touchdowns came while lined up with his hand in the dirt, however. Pats plan to split Aaron Hernandez farther out from the line this season.

Both Gronkowski and Hernandez will be owned. If Gronkowski goes down, Hernandez, basically a WR, will move inside, but Daniel Fells will help out with some blocking. If Hernandez goes out, a wide receiver will take over most of his targets. Jabar Gaffney is that guy.

Hernandez is much more of a Wes Welker-type than Gronkowski, with an average depth of target of 7.1 in 2011. Hernandez also moved all over the field, whether it was at halfback, slot WR, outside WR or traditional TE. Hernandez’s game also relies on catching said short passes then making defenders miss — in 2011, he caused 23 missed tackles, more than double any TE not named Gronkowski. For 2012, a repeat of 2011 is not out of the question, though with the Patriots corps, err on the side of caution. He will likely be a TE1, and a season of 75/875/6 is attainable. Draft with confidence since he will have a much more reasonable draft cost than Gronk.

Jake Ballard:

9.9 yards per target in 2011, 16th in NFL overall

The Giants planned to place TE Jake Ballard (knee surgeries) on the PUP list before he was claimed off waivers by the Patriots. The recovery timetable is typically eight months, pushing the starting tight end from 2011 into at least October. If Ballard doesn’t take the field in 2012, he’ll be an exclusive rights free agent next offseason after catching 38 passes for 604 yards and four touchdowns in 2011.

Daniel Fells:

A former undrafted free agent, Fells spent the first three years in St. Louis before signing with the Broncos last season. He started 15 of 16 games. Primarily a blocker, Fells has 88 catches in 58 career games. He’ll be called on to block behind Gronkowski and Hernandez. Aside from potentially freeing up Hernandez from some of his blocking duties, Fells won’t make a fantasy impact for the Pats.

Visanthe Shiancoe:

Pats added TE Shiancoe to their roster as well. Nothing to see here unless both TEs go down with injury at some point.

San Francisco 49ers

Vernon Davis (ADP: 59) Round: 5
Delanie Walker (ADP: 300+) Round:
Justin Peelle (ADP: 300+) Round:
Nate Byham (ADP: 300+) Round:

He had it down by the end of the season, and Harbaugh suggested that Davis’ furious finish could be a sign of things to come in 2012. Davis’ last five games, including the playoffs, project to 90 catches, 1,715 yards, 16 TDs over a full 16-game schedule.

Part of the reason for Davis’ success is that he is consistently one of the more deep targeted tight ends in the league, finishing with 23, 18, and 15 targets of 20 yards or more over the last three seasons respectively. This may be a sign of things to come for Davis this season.

Alex Smith is an underrated vertical passer and that, when combined with the additions of Randy Moss and Mario Manningham to this offense, could raise Davis’ vertical production to another plane. Davis will be held back a bit by this offense but that isn’t enough to keep him from claiming a top-end TE1 rating.

Vernon Davis played 96.1 percent of time, while second tight end Delanie Walker was on the field 52.14 percent of the time in the regular season despite missing nearly two full games with a fractured jaw.

Delanie Walker:

Delanie Walker is the second tight end to Davis on the 49ers, but that, in-of-itself, does not prohibit him from having fantasy value. In truth, Davis is the number-one receiver of any kind on the team, whereas Walker plays a more-traditional tight- end role. Walker was a positive contributor as a blocker in 2011 but was slightly negative as a receiver. Perhaps if Vernon Davis were hurt, you could use Walker in deep leagues. Otherwise, he’s not worth drafting or holding on your roster.

San Diego Chargers

Antonio Gates (ADP: 45) Round: 4
Ladarius Green (ADP: 234) Round:
Randy McMichael (ADP: 300+) Round:
Kory Sperry (ADP: 300+) Round:

Since 2004, Gates has never failed to reach 70 receptions, 700 yards, or seven touchdowns, with a ridiculous average of over 71 receptions, 924 yards, and 9 touchdowns per year over that span.

Gates has missed nine games over the past two seasons with a troublesome foot injury, but Coach Norv Turner indicated that Gates is finally back to pre-injury form. “Gates looks great -— he’s back,” Turner said. “Physically, he’s back to where we want him to be.” Gates is joining teammates for OTAs after spending last offseason recovering from a plantar fascia injury.

Despite missing three games and playing through pain in several others, Gates still finished as the No. 7 fantasy tight end last season.

He remains one of the toughest players in the league, though, and did not miss a game from Week 7 on. A constant red-zone threat, Gates brings the biggest portion of his value by consistently being within the Top 5 in touchdowns at his position despite seeing his yardage and reception totals fluctuate. Despite his age, Gates has shown no reason why he should not yet again be an elite fantasy tight end, as he has a firmly established floor and the upside to lead the position in production.

UPDATE: Gates is apparently healthier than he’s ever been to start a season

Randy McMichael /Ladarius Green:

Randy McMichael already sees a ton of snaps as a blocker, but 4th round rookie Ladarius Green, an excellent receiving prospect, would slide into Gates’ pass-catching role.

Dallas Cowboys

Jason Witten (ADP: 67) Round: 6
John Phillips (ADP: 300+) Round:

Over the final five games, Witten finished 19th among fantasy tight ends — behind the likes of Dennis Pitta and Jeremy Shockey. It’s no coincidence that all three Cowboys receivers were healthy and productive in the final month. He could become more of a dink and dunk pass catcher. Witten will likely be overdrafted in 2012 standard scoring leagues.

Witten’s vertical game may not allow him to keep up with the top tier TEs, but he still managed to rank sixth among tight ends in fantasy points last year, leaving him a low-end TE1.

UPDATE: Witten is as best 50/50 to start the season. He will see his specialist next week for an update

John Phillips:

Cowboys coach Jason Garrett plans to use No. 2 TE John Phillips in the vertical passing game this season. Phillips’ role will increase with Martellus Bennett gone. “You will see him running down the field more than he used to, and then get more opportunities in the passing game,” Garrett promised. Phillips won’t get enough snaps and targets for fantasy consideration, but that could change if Jason Witten goes down.

Atlanta Falcons

Tony Gonzalez (ADP: 90) Round: 8
Michael Palmer (ADP: 300+) Round:

Gonzalez lines up with his hand in the dirt about two-thirds of the time, but was only targeted on seven percent of those snaps in 2011. That’s compared to seeing a Matt Ryan target on 21 percent of his slot snaps. In each of his three seasons with the Falcons, Gonzalez has seen, at least, 19 percent of the targets and has scored 21-plus percent of the receiving touchdowns.

It is clear that Gonzalez remains an effective security blanket. Despite being 36 years old, it looks like a productive floor has been firmly established for Gonzalez in the Falcons offense as a Top 10 fantasy tight end. Just remember that there is also no upside.

Nearly every other TE1 has at least one possible scenario that would point in the direction of significant upside potential. Gonzalez really doesn’t have that scenario unless one counts the possibility he will see more red zone targets, which is possible but not likely considering that Gonzalez hasn’t reached the double-digit mark in touchdowns in the past 3 seasons.
A good TE1 but one who falls short of top-end TE1 status because of his fantasy point ceiling. Yet, he does have a #2 overall TE watch list rating due to Atlanta’s excellent SOS for TEs.

Michael Palmer is a receiving option but wouldn’t see the targets that Gonzo would in the event that Gonzales’ age catches up with his production.

Washington Redskins

Fred Davis (ADP: 78) Round: 7
Chris Cooley (ADP: 300+) Round:
Logan Paulsen (ADP: 300+) Round:
Niles Paul (ADP: 300+) Round:
Dominique Byrd (ADP: 300+) Round:
Rob Myers (ADP: 300+) Round:

Interestingly, Baylor tight ends accounted for only 24 of the team’s receptions last year, so RGIII may have to get used to that change in the offense.
Bottom line: He would have been a top 5 tight end at season’s end if not for the suspension and should be able to replicate that performance. A high-end TE1.

Even with the additions at wide receiver, Davis’ well-rounded profile should allow him to remain a key cog in Washington’s pass-heavy offense.

Chris Cooley:

Chris Cooley is set to make $3.8 million in 2012 after missing 20 games with injury the past three seasons. Cooley has said he has “no doubt” he’ll be back in Washington, so it’s possible he’ll be amenable to returning at a reduced salary. Cooley will have to be an effective outside zone-run blocker in order to claim the backup job behind Fred Davis.

A healthy Cooley will force the Redskins into more two- tight end sets regardless, but he’d be a borderline TE1 if called upon to start.

Don’t forget that Cooley missed the bulk of 2009 and 2011 with a series of ankle, knee, and finger injuries. He is draftable as a handcuff to Davis in only the deepest of leagues.

UPDATE: Cooley getting reps at FB

Detroit Lions

Brandon Pettigrew (ADP: 91) Round: 8
Tony Scheffler (ADP: 236) Round:
Will Heller (ADP: 300+) Round:
J.J Finley (ADP: 300+) Round:

Pettigrew finished as a top-12 fantasy tight end only because he ranked second in targets (126) and third in receptions (83) at the position. As Titus Young and Ryan Broyles take on bigger offensive roles, Pettigrew’s relative lack of playmaking ability will sink his fantasy value. He’s a prime Dynasty league sell this offseason. He’s a volume tight end and not much else, but that volume level is high enough to make him a low-end TE1.

Pettigrew finished third in targets behind Gronkowski and Graham, but that’s where the similarities end. The Lions’ scheme combined with Pettigrew’s lack of vertical ability resulted in very pedestrian efficiency numbers. Entering his fourth year, Pettigrew could continue the improvement he showed in 2011 by cutting his drop rate from over 14% to 6%. Regardless, the 27-year-old is unlikely to emerge as a star in an offense that just added Ryan Broyles to the bevy of weapons it already possesses.

Tony Scheffler:

Already playing quite a bit in the slot, Scheffler would be among the most utilized tight ends in receiving situations if Pettigrew went down.

While he is technically a tight end, he lines up more often like a wide receiver, so his rate stats are more at par with wide receivers. 143 of his receiving yards came on five deep passes. That was the sixth highest total for tight ends in terms of yards on passes of 20 yards or more. There were just four games where he had more than two catches and just three games where he had more than three targets. His playing time was even more inconsistent, as it ranged from 12% of a game to 50% of a game, with the two extremes coming in back to back games.

Green Bay Packers

Jermichael Finley (ADP: 66) Round: 6
Tom Crabtree (ADP: 300+) Round:
Andrew Quarless (ADP: 300+) Round:
D.J Williams (ADP: 300+) Round:
Ryan Taylor (ADP: 300+) Round:

He was able to save his fantasy value by finishing with the third most touchdowns.

Finley averaged exactly five targets-per-game during the first 11 games of 2011 before seeing 7.3 per-game in the final six affairs. His only two double-digit target games came after Week 12. Finley saw 17 percent of Aaron Rodgers’ targets last season. It should be noted that 62 of his 118 fantasy points last year were tallied in four games, so he was consistent but in an entirely bad way (9 games with 6 or fewer fantasy points).
His 46 vertical targets were the third most of any tight end and his 48.4 percent vertical target percentage was sixth overall and second among high volume tight ends (90 or more total targets).

Yet, many fantasy owners were frustrated by his abysmal 12 drops last year, and despite being part of a top offense, he was only able to finish 11th among tight ends in targets, with 91.

He’s going to need to fix his drop problems if he wants to see more targets, but the talent and situation are there for him to be an elite fantasy option at tight end. The development of Cobb as an alternate middle of the field vertical threat could take some vertical targets away from Finley.

Outside of the elite two, the fantasy tight end realm is dotted with a lot of good/very good but not great talents. Finley fits right in with the rest of those and therefore has to be considered a mid-range TE1. There’s plenty of room for upside on his fifth-round ADP.

UPDATE: Finley has yet to play in the preseason

Andrew Quarless:

The Packers “feel good” about TE Andrew Quarless’ (torn ACL) progress. However, the “timing” of Quarless’ injury means there’s a chance he won’t suit up in 2012. Quarless didn’t undergo surgery until January after blowing out his right knee on December 4.

Andrew Quarless was a bust in the receiving game in 2010, but still has a leg up on the No. 2 job if his ACL heals. Tom Crabtree will do the blocking and deep leaguers can take a chance on D.J. Williams.

Tennessee Titans

Jared Cook (ADP: 138) Round: 12
Craig Stevens (ADP: 300+) Round:

Cook had great metrics but he also had only 74 total targets. That lack of target volume is why he had only 4 games with 8 or more fantasy points and 8 games with 3 or fewer fantasy points. Only two TEs with 40-plus targets had fewer targets 20-plus yards down the field than Cook in 2011.

Cook was primarily used in passing situations. Similar TEs in terms of their use were Jermichael Finley and Kellen Winslow. All three saw a majority of their snaps on passing downs. Of Cook’s 74 targets, 49 came from the slot position last year.

Being part of an offense with a ton of talented pass catchers will not make it easy for Cook to reach the 100-target mark that will be necessary for him to reach elite tight end status. However a top 5 TE schedule should give him opportunities. Cook’s late season run lends credence to the idea that he will continue that trend in 2012. Consider him a very good low-end TE1/high-end TE2.

UPDATE: Cook is our guy to wait on if you do not get Graham or Gronk

Craig Stevens:

Craig Stevens could lead the Titans TE unit in snaps, but he’s primarily a blocker. Daniel Graham will also be in the mix. Those two would be blocking pass-catching prospect.

Houston Texans

Owen Daniels (ADP: 143) Round: 12
Garrett Graham (ADP: 300+) Round:

Daniels was a consistent tight end with a drop rate of 3.3% which was amongst the best in the league. The Texans’ run-first offense is working against him, and certainly won’t help Daniels’ fantasy stock. The chances look to be 50/50 that he will have an increase on the three double- digit point games he posted last year. That equates to a high-end TE2.

Garrett Graham:

If Daniels goes down, FB Casey would surely see more work at TE and is worth an add at that point. Monitor Garrett Graham, who would be forced into 40+ snaps in an injury situation.

Philadelphia Eagles

Brent Celek (ADP: 134) Round: 12
Clay Harbor (ADP: 300+) Round:

While his catch rate is right around league average, his value comes with what he does once the ball is in his hand. His 8.0 YAC/rec. leads all tight ends with at least 15 targets. He averaged having a player miss a tackle on him on 16.1% of his catches, which was also amongst the league’s best.

Like a lot of other players on the Eagles offense, Celek was very hit-miss last year from a fantasy perspective. He had a rough start to last season with just 4 targets and 14.6 yards per game over the first five games. He improved that to 6.7 targets, 67.1 yards and 0.45 touchdowns per game, however. If there were such a thing as a spot start tight end, Celek would be a perfect fit for that role. Since there isn’t such a thing, he has to be considered a TE2.
Clay Harbor:

Clay Harbor remains the favorite to back up Brent Celek this season. The Eagles brought in veteran Donald Lee, but the blocker hasn’t been able to unseat Harbor yet. Harbor, a 2010 fourth-rounder, fits better on the roster thanks to his special teams ability.

Denver Broncos

Jacob Tamme (ADP: 104) Round: 9
Joel Dreessen (ADP: 244) Round:
Julius Thomas (ADP: 300+) Round:
Virgil Green (ADP: 300+) Round:

Broncos OC Mike McCoy says the tight end will be Peyton Manning’s first and second read at times this season. This is hardly a surprise based on the signings of Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen, who will team with physical freak Julius Thomas and H-back Virgil Green.

The Broncos also lack an impact slot receiver, so Denver will go heavy on two-tight end sets, and Tamme figures to pace the field in snaps. Tamme played, at least, half the snaps with Peyton Manning in 10 games back in 2010. In those games, he averaged 9.4 targets-per-game, which worked out to 24 percent of Manning’s throws. Ascending to a prominent role because of a season-ending injury to Dallas Clark, Tamme was targeted an eye-popping 90 times in 9 games, catching 73% of those throws from Manning. While 10 targets-per-game might be an unreasonable expectation, Manning utilizes his tight ends a lot.

Tamme may be getting competition from fellow signee Joel Dreessen for playing time, but the latter was likely brought in to block more whereas Tamme is a receiving tight end. Even with Dreessen taking some of his targets, Tamme could wind up being a Top 5 fantasy tight end in PPR leagues, making him an excellent value if he is being drafted outside the top eight at his position. He’s a borderline top-12 fantasy option.

Joel Dreessen:

Houston’s free-agent exodus included tight end, Dreessen. He received high marks from Pro Football Focus for receiving and blocking the past couple of years. He’s also proven capable of high-end TE2 fantasy numbers while filling in for Owen Daniels. Tamme and Dreessen are expected to share duties, but Tamme is the better pass-catcher. Dreessen would be a borderline TE1 if Tamme went down. T

Dreessen was a pass-blocker often in Houston, accounting for 31% of his passing snaps. He also excelled in the run game. Regardless of his role, Dreessen will be effective with limited snaps and capable of TE1 numbers if an injury occurs higher on the depth chart, just as in Houston.

Julius Thomas:

Before the signing of Tamme and Dreessen, we here at fantasyomatic saw Jimmy Graham type potential with Julius Thomas. A basketball player from Oregon state, he only played one year of college football  and tore up training camp last year until suffering a very early season high ankle sprain. This stunted his development and simply couldn’t find a role in the Tim Tebow circus/offense.

The Denver Post confirms the Broncos still like the potential of the 2011 fourth-rounder. The Broncos have signed Dreessen and Tamme, leaving Thomas to “battle his way into the lineup.” While we remain high on Thomas’ future value, his 2012 prospects are bleak. Peyton Manning will show more trust in the two veterans who are more advanced route runners.

Unfortunately, Thomas underwent surgery last week to repair ligaments in his ankle so he will be limited throughout Denver’s offseason program, but should be healthy in time for training camp meaning he has even more behind the other TEs.

Thomas has massive upside as a receiver, so he’d he be worth a speculative add in the event of injury at the position. Just remember this mid-season.

Indianapolis Colts

Coby Fleener (ADP: 147) Round: 13
Dwayne Allen (ADP: 240) Round:

Though he is an explosive athlete with the ball or running in the open field, he is somewhat stale at the line and needs to improve his strength to become a more complete player. His lack of strength can also hold him back in the passing game, as he tends to get jammed at the line and can have trouble getting back into his route.
His 6-foot-6, 247-pound frame matches up quite well with Gronkowski (6-6, 265) and Graham (6-6, 260), as does his performance when flexed out as a wide receiver. Last year, Fleener caught 13 of the 20 passes thrown his way as a wideout and gained 281 yards and two touchdowns. Fleener also had an 8.8 YPA on 20 targets when lined up tight and that he ran a 4.45 40-yard dash at his pro day.

What won’t helpFleener, however, is playing in a Bruce Arians offense. In his 8 seasons as an NFL offensive coordinator, Arians leading tight end has caught 17, 25, 18, 47, 48, 76, 42 and 51 passes. Those last five figures were all posted by Heath Miller, who has a somewhat similar skill set to Fleener, so look for Fleener’s reception range to be in that 42-76 range. He will probably get closer to 76 than to 42, but even if he gets all the way to 76, it still will place him well short of the top 10 tight ends in that category.

Chemistry will not be a problem with Luck, thus making immediate production more likely for Fleener. Still, just because Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski have lit the world on fire, do not let that affect your judgment of Fleener too strongly. The skill is there but the offensive limitations will likely keep Fleener from reaching his high-end TE1 potential.

One big thing workin gin his favor is his second best SOS for all fantasy TEs in 2012. Yet, consider him more of a mid-range TE2.

Cincinnati Bengals

Jermaine Gresham (ADP: 129) Round: 11
Donald Lee (ADP: 300+) Round:
Colin Cochart (ADP: 300+) Round:
Orson Charles (ADP: 348) Round:

With Andy Dalton besting expectations as a rookie, Gresham holds some sleeper appeal for the upcoming season. However, in order for him to emerge as a TE1, Cincinnati must commit more strongly to the new tight end receiving paradigm.

UPDATE: Gresham sprained his right knee in the preseason

Donald Lee:

Turning 32 this summer, Donald Lee will compete with Colin Cochart for the No. 2 tight end job.

New York Jets

Dustin Keller (ADP: 146) Round: 13
Jeff Cumberland (ADP: 300+) Round:
Matthew Mulligan (ADP: 300+) Round:
Josh Baker (ADP: 300+) Round:
Shawn Nelson (ADP: 300+) Round:

After posting 36 points in the first three contacts (when a lot of players were succeeding because of NFL defenses having lockout adjustment issues), Keller scored seven or more points in only four out of 13 games.

What’s worse, he scored less than 5 points in 7 of those 13 games. If the Jets keep their promises regarding going to a more run-heavy game plan, then Keller might have trouble even repeating last year’s inconsistent and mediocre performance.

He shouldn’t be relied upon as a TE1 but within TE2s, he can claim a spot in the mid-range of that tier.

Jeff Cumberland:

Cumberland, much like Keller, is more of a pass catcher than a blocker. Targets to the position would drop a bit, but he’d still be worth monitoring.

Carolina Panthers

Greg Olsen (ADP: 154) Round: 13
Ben Hartsock (ADP: 300+) Round:
Gary Barnidge (ADP: 300+) Round:

Olsen was the lesser producing TE last season after Shockey. Olsen does stretch the field and was fifth highest among tight ends with 20-plus targets. He saw 15% of his targets more than 20 yards down the field, although he only hauled in 23% of them. To compound matters, his 10% overall drop rate was among the worst at the position. Although in a favorable situation, Olsen must raise his game significantly to be fantasy relevant. He has the opportunity and a nice schedule but remains a low-end TE2.

UPDATE: Panthers brass claims Olsen could be as big as Graham or Gronk

Gary Barnidg replaces Shockey as No. 2 TE, but Tolbert will take on a heavy dose of those snaps in the short passing game.

Chicago Bears

Kellen Davis (ADP: 220) Round:
Matt Spaeth (ADP: 300+) Round:
Kyle Adams (ADP: 300+) Round:

Now Davis will be the unquestioned starter with the personnel and coaches around him to make him into a real sleeper. Davis said he expects a dramatic increase in production this season. The 6’7/262 Davis had a chance to sign elsewhere in free agency, but was intrigued by his opportunity with the Bears now that Mike Martz is gone. “I’d like to have between 40-60 catches at least,” Davis said. “I’m hoping to get out there and put some numbers up. … I get a lot of first reads on a lot of plays. So it’s all looking good for me right now.” There’s some serious sleeper appeal here thanks to Davis’ athletic skill set.

Even coach Lovie Smith believes Davis has the talent to be “featured” in the Bears offense. “Great size, great in-line blocker, skilled enough of an athlete to be able to move outside and do some things,” said Smith. “I really like him.”

Olsen went from 105 targets in 2009, before Martz, to 73 targets in 2010, with Martz. Davis could be due for a jump from his 31 targets in 2011, and that allows him double-digit touchdown upside. Plus, Davis is a decent deep threat. Davis’ role is a situation to monitor in training camp.

Matt Spaeth:

Blocking specialist Matt Spaeth is confident that the tight end position will have a bigger role in Mike Tice’s offense than the one Martz ran the past couple of seasons. Spaeth concedes the exact role in the passing game is uncertain, but “as of right now, I would say yes, the tight end is going to be involved a lot more.” Spaeth calls starter Davis a “tremendous, tremendous talent” and a “freakish athlete” whose “best stuff is yet to come.”

Miami Dolphins

Anthony Fasano (ADP: 222) Round:
Jeron Mastrud (ADP: 300+) Round:
Will Yeatman (ADP: 300+) Round:
Les Brown (ADP: 300+) Round:
Michael Egnew (ADP: 300+) Round:

The Dolphins did draft Michael Egnew with a third round pick and plan to utilize Charles Clay more, however.

Michael Egnew:

The Palm Beach Post expects Dolphins’ third-round pick TE Michael Egnew to be a “significant” contributor. Riding high after a junior season in which he caught 90 balls, Missouri’s Michael Egnew was thought to be one of the top tight end prospects coming into 2011. He failed to meet expectations last season, finishing with only 50 catches with a new quarterback throwing his direction. T

Beat writer Ben Volin believes Egnew could be an “immediate threat” in the red zone. A pure pass-catcher with above-average size (6-5, 252) and athleticism, Egnew is working “feverishly” on his blocking and “playing with his hand in the dirt.” With Fasano and Clay still in the mix, we’re skeptical.

He could pose matchup problems for linebackers and defensive backs if he can see the field early on. It took a couple of years for Jermichael Finley to become the player he is today, however, so expect a similar learning curve from Egnew.

Minnesota Vikings

Kyle Rudolph (ADP: 172) Round: 15
John Carlson (ADP: 262) Round:
Allen Reisner (ADP: 300+) Round:
Mickey Shuler (ADP: 300+) Round:

Rudolph’s target volume was terribly low for someone who played in 15 games. in 2011 His overall metrics at Notre Dame really weren’t that impressive and his overall metrics at Minnesota last year really weren’t that much better. If Ponder doesn’t progress quickly, Rudolph could be stuck in neutral. The idea of split targets isn’t helpful.

However, his catch rate was the fourth highest in the league for tight ends with at least 15 targets. He had just one dropped pass which also speaks to how consistent he is with his hands. He never had more than four targets in a game and the most yards he’s had in a game is 44 yards. He played 42.7% of the snaps for most of the season, but in the last three weeks he increased that to 77.2% of snaps.
John Carlson:

TE John Carlson is expected to be sidelined a few weeks after sustaining a sprained MCL in practice. Carlson also missed all of last year with an injury and could have some rust. Like Rudolph, he could be stuck in neutral if Ponder doesn’t progress and the idea of split targets isn’t helpful. Carlson has a history of TE2 production with Seattle and Minnesota expects to rely heavily on the position. Rudolph can gain some potential TE1 momentum with Carlson out.

In 2010, Carlson’s catch rate, yards per catch, and yards after the catch per catch were each below the league average. He also had five games with three catches each, and two games with five catches. The Vikings averaged 6.2 targets per game to their tight ends, which will likely be split between him and Rudolph going forward.

Carlson is expected to serve as the in-line tight end as the Vikings pair him with Rudolph. He did have 12 touchdowns during his first two NFL seasons. “In the red zone, he has a sense for zone and an ability to slide into an opening and then make a tough, contested catch,” Bill Musgrave said. The Vikings may decide to use him in a more vertically inclined role and that would improve his fantasy value.

Since Rudolph is technically the starter, he gets a TE2 or low-end TE1 rating (with Carlson out) versus Carlson’s “do not draft” rating, but both look to be risky fantasy picks as long as both are healthy. We see Rudolph as a high-end TE2 with potential to push for top-12 stats.

UPDATE: John Carlson (knee) still has not resumed practicing.

Baltimore Ravens

Ed Dickson (ADP: 227) Round:
Dennis Pitta (ADP: 256) Round:

His inconsistency makes him a risky proposition as a draft pick. There is some upside with Dickson, but he has not proven to be reliable enough to draft. He is certainly not worth more than a back-end TE2. He may not even be worth drafting at this point

UPDATE: Dickson has resumed catching passes after shoulder injury

Dennis Pitta:

The Ravens did not utilize Pitta as much as much as Dickson last season, but they did use him more effectively. Pitta had a higher catch rate (74.1%), than Dickson. If Pitta surpasses Dickson on the depth chart, he will make some noise in the fantasy world. Until that happens, however, Pitta is not even draftable. If you are in a deep dynasty league with multiple starting tight ends, he might be worth stashing on your bench, but that is about it.

Pitta also suffered a broken hand in training camp and the team hopes to have him ready by season opener.

Regardless of what coach Cameron indicates, uncertainty over target distribution and one of the bottom 5 series of coverage matchups this season will make it hard to give them a roster spot on draft day.

UPDATE: No timetable for Pittas return from broken hand 

Arizona Cardinals

Todd Heap (ADP: 267) Round:
Jeff King (ADP: 300+) Round:
Rob Housler (ADP: 300+) Round:
Jim Dray (ADP: 300+) Round:

He is the guy you want here.

Todd Heap:

According to the Arizona Republic, it’s “clear” that the Cardinals plan to incorporate the tight end more into the passing attack. Like everyone else on the NFL.

Todd Heap is 32 years old, but he was effective as a part-time player for the Cardinals in 2011. Most of that value is the result of stellar run-blocking. Heap caught 24 balls in 199 total pass routes, a shell of his peak performance, and those numbers will continue to dwindle as he approaches retirement. There is not a lot of fantasy potential at tight end on the Cardinals.

Jeff King:

Jeff King is another veteran, and he led the team in snaps last season. King (quadriceps surgery) is expected to be ready “at some point” during training camp. TEs coach Freddie Kitchens suggested the Cardinals will utilize more two-tight end sets this season. King will be the blocking specialist used in tandem with Todd Heap and breakout candidate Rob Housler, who “needs to play,” according to Kitchens.

New York Giants

Martellus Bennett (ADP: 189) Round: 16
Travis Beckum (ADP: 300+) Round:
Bear Pascoe (ADP: 300+) Round:
Adrien Robinson (ADP: 347) Round:

Travis Beckum:

The recovery timetable is typically eight months, pushing the starting tight end from 2011 into at least October. But after a recent medical checkup, Beckum (ACL surgery) suggested there is a “very good chance” he will be ready for the start of the 2012 season. Skepticism is advised. Beckum will be just seven months removed from surgery by Week 1. While it’s a good sign that he’s ahead of schedule, Beckum’s progress will likely have little effect Bennets early season opportunities.

Bear Pascoe will dabble at tight end and fullback, but will not see relevant number of touches.

Kansas City Chiefs

Tony Moeaki (ADP: 240) Round:
Kevin Boss (ADP: 274) Round:
Jake O’Connell (ADP: 300+) Round:
Anthony Becht (ADP: 300+) Round:

Of course, Moeaki is returning from a torn ACL and thus could have the typical subpar injury bounce back year. Even with the injury, Moeaki will be drafted at a big discount to his true talent and is worth a flyer late.
Kevin Boss:

One year removed from back-to-back 500-yard campaigns with NYG Boss was released by the Raiders and now the Chiefs may use both he and Moeaki in the lineup concurrently and thus increase their target opportunities.

Boss has a history of producing decent fantasy numbers, but he won’t do enough damage to warrant TE1 consideration. Add him only if you need a TE2. Boss will be the inline tight end with Moeaki (ACL surgery) ticketed for the more versatile “Joker” role.

They will benefit from the 7th easiest SOS for fantasy TEs this year, but Kansas City is not likely to dedicate enough targets to tight ends to get either of these two close to the triple-digit target volume necessary for becoming a viable starting fantasy tight end.

From a fantasy standpoint, Moeaki has the higher ceiling, though neither player is likely to exceed TE2 production.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dallas Clark (ADP: 210) Round:
Luke Stocker (ADP: 264) Round:
Zack Pianalto (ADP: 300+) Round:

Luke Stocker:

Clark figures to play second fiddle to the more well-rounded Stocker. Bucs GM Mark Dominik describes second-year Stocker as an “every-down tight end”. He will be the Bucs’ in-line tight end, often staying in to block. Clark will enter the game on obvious passing downs. We don’t expect either player to be a major fantasy factor will depend on whether the Bucs end up throwing more or running more this season. Most signs point to a run heavy approach with downfield passing rather than dink and dunk passes to the tight ends.

Too bad too, because their watch list score benefits from their #1 SOS for TEs, but is weighted by 2011 totals for TE targets and attempts yet that volume is expected to drop in 2012.

Seattle Seahawks

Kellen Winslow (ADP: 185) Round: 16
Zach Miller (ADP: 271) Round:
Anthony McCoy (ADP: 300+) Round:
Jameson Konz (ADP: 300+) Round:
Cameron Morrah (ADP: 300+) Round:

Seattle has a top 10 easy SOS for fantasy TEs in 2012. and it’s possible that Matt Flynn could cure all that ails him, but the career- best numbers for Miller make him a Top 10 option, not an elite one. After so massive a drop-off in production and with Kellen Winslow now in the mix, it would be difficult to draft Miller in the Top 30 at tight end.

UPDATE: Miller expects to play in this weekend’s preseason game

Kellen Winslow:

Kellen Winslow claims he “had to roll” from Tampa following the hiring of Greg Schiano. “You can’t laugh. You can’t joke around,” Winslow said. “So I decided not to go to OTAs.” Winslow has had off the field issues before being released so this was no surprise. Winslow should split snaps with Zach Miller and would be the team’s top receiving tight end if Miller missed action. Cam Morrah and Anthony McCoy would help out in 2-TE packages.
This is a split target situation and neither of these two is likely to see as many as 75 targets. Winslow has a varied injury history. It might be tough to reach low-end TE2 ratings

Cleveland Browns

Evan Moore (ADP: 261) Round:
Benjamin Watson (ADP: 277) Round:
Alex Smith (ADP: 300+) Round:
Jordan Cameron (ADP: 300+) Round:

UPDATE: Moore might be in danger of making the final 53

Between Watson and Moore, they make for ONE good fantasy tight end. The addition of Weeden could increase the Browns tight end target volume. Yet its more likely that neither will win the job outright and there will not be enough targets to make either of them a viable fantasy starter. Both are solid low-end TE2 candidates while considering their bottom 5 SOS in 2012.

Saint Louis Rams

Lance Kendricks (ADP: 276) Round:
Billy Bajema (ADP: 300+) Round:
Brody Eldridge (ADP: 300+) Round:
Michael Hoomanawanui (ADP: 300+) Round:
Stephen Spach (ADP: 300+) Round:
Mike McNeill (ADP: 300+) Round:

He did not have a touchdown either. From Week 1 to Week 13, he played in 52.9% of snaps, and that increased to 84.6% in the last four games of the season. Because he played better as the season went on, and played more, his numbers should be better in 2012.

Kendricks was deployed at fullback, on the line of scrimmage, and out wide during the offseason program. Schottenheimer’s 2010 starter at tight end, Dustin Keller, led the Jets in targets with 115.
Michael Hoomanawanui:

Blockers Mike Hoomanawanui and Matthew Mulligan would dominate the snaps if Kendricks went down. Neither are particularly good pass catchers, but they’d see a few targets each.

Michael Hoomanawanui played better than the heralded rookie Lance Kendricks in 2011, but neither was able to overcome the anemic Rams offense to turn in even a modest fantasy season. Hoomanawanui received only 13 targets, rendering him unusable in all formats. Hoomanawanui is big, and as such could be a deep sleeper in TD-only leagues, but in typical formats, he remains undraftable.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Heath Miller (ADP: 201) Round: 16
Leonard Pope (ADP: 300+) Round:
Weslye Saunders (ADP: 300+) Round:

Mike Tomlin suggested in the offseason that OC Todd Haley planned to increase Miller’s role. If Wallace ends up missing time, Miller could get the looks he needs to return to fantasy relvenace.

Perhaps with Rashard Mendenhall out for the season, he could duplicate those numbers. Chances are better that he will catch 50-something and not 70-something passes in 2012, and his target volume and tough Te schedule push Miller out of the Top 20. A late-range TE2 at best.

UPDATE: Miller isn’t getting any looks in camp

Leonard Pope:

One of the more experienced players remaining in a barren tight end market, Pope caught a career high 24 passes for 247 yards in Kansas City last season. A poor blocker, he’d provide pass-catching depth behind Heath Miller in Pittsburgh.

Miller is already just a borderline TE2 and Pope would see even fewer targets, especially considering the team’s deep WR unit. Wes Saunders is a better pass- catcher than Pope, but is suspended four games.

Oakland Raiders

Brandon Myers (ADP: 300+) Round:
Richard Gordon (ADP: 300+) Round:
David Ausberry (ADP: 300+) Round:

David Ausberry:

Converted wide receiver Ausberry would fill in for Myers, but Oakland doesn’t use the position in the passing game enough to warrant an add. Still, keep an eye on him, as he is a good pass-catcher. Despite an impressive offseason from Ausberry, the Raiders are likely to use a three-man rotation at the position. Look elsewhere for fantasy value at tight end.

Buffalo Bills

Scott Chandler (ADP: 271) Round:
Lee Smith (ADP: 300+) Round:
Mike Caussin (ADP: 300+) Round:
Fendi Onobun (ADP: 300+) Round:

Per the team’s official site, Chandler “was a daily fixture on the highlight reel for the offense, especially in the red zone.” during OTAs and minicamps.

Chandler will continue to be featured around the goal line. But owners should note that he had three or fewer catches in 11 of 14 games played last season. Chandler’s exists only in deep, TD-heavy leagues.

UPDATE: Chandler had a great camp

Lee Smith:

Bills TEs coach Pete Metzelaars even admits Lee Smith has limited pass-catching skills. “He is a powerful man,” Metzelaars said. “Now he has limitations the other way – the athleticism. So when this guy’s in, they’re running every time.” Smith’s roster spot sounds secure as a sixth lineman, but he’ll remain well off the fantasy radar.

Buffalo has a really tough SOS for fantasy TEs in 2012, so you shouldn’t expect too much out of Chandler even if his opportunities increase.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Marcedes Lewis (ADP: 262) Round:
Zach Miller (ADP: 272) Round:
Zach Potter (ADP: 300+) Round:

The number of targets he had was inconsistent from week to week, as he had 4 targets or less in 9 games and 7 targets or more in four games. Even in coach Mike Mularkey’s tight end-friendly offense, Lewis will need major strides from Blaine Gabbert to get back on the radar as a high-end TE2 fantasy option. His numbers should look more like 2011 than 2010 in 2012 thanks to Gabbert remaining at quarterback.

UPDATE: Jacksonville brass like Lewis as a red zone threat

Zach Miller:

Zach Miller was cleared to practice after undergoing shoulder surgery in October.The former quarterback believes he’s more ready to play tight end now than at any point in his career, but he acknowledges that the burden is on him to prove he can stay healthy for a full season. Miller won’t be a fantasy factor behind Lewis in 2012.