FantasyOMatic

Welcome to part TWO in a series of Draft Prep articles leading up to training camp (read part one -WR, here). This week the focus is on fantasy QBs.

We ranked all 32 teams based on their Fantasy Points Against Strength. In this article, we will break down each team and profile each QB candidate.

You will also find helpful information on 2009 Yards Per Attempt, 2010 Strength of Schedule and 2010 Fantasy Playoff schedules.

Don’t worry about Fantasy Points Against data here being grabbed just from 2009. The algorithm used here at fantasyomatic.com has been hard at work cranking out “defensive ranking against fantasy position” projections all spring.

The “FPA” values you see here include 2010 adjustments for the draft additions, free agency additions, coaching changes in the offseason, defensive scheme updates, daily fantasy news updates and up to the day depth charts. In addition, the FPA values are also weighted against their strength of opponents in 2009 and then again against their strength of opponents in 2010.

Each week we will post a new skill position until we deliver a complete skill position Draft Sheet for your late summer drafts.

If you want FantasyoMatic algorithm perspective on your draft picks, hit us up at @FantasyoMatic on Twitter or join our Facebook discussion group here.

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Legend:

Team Rank: All teams are listed in order of our proprietary FPA Score rank. This translates to #1 ranked GB Aaron Rodgers having the least resistance against their position all season and the highest likelihood to score while  #32 ranked PIT QBs will face the toughest opponents against their position and be least likely to score.

In addition, we break down separate scores for Fantasy Playoffs (14-16) and the last 3 games of the season (making your playoffs). Extra most attention given to fantasy playoffs.

Then all three scores are analyzed together and weighted by RSZ% (see below) to give us our proprietary “FPA Score. Strength of Schedule and System Scoring Potential accuracy unlike any ranking process you will see anywhere.

Tip: Draft all players from the top 10 and ignore all players from the bottom 10 and use the middle to help you make tough decisions in your draft.

YPA: Yard Per Pass Attempt in 2009. This includes pass interference penalties because the player was involved in a pass route attempt. (Thanks KC Joyner) This is a good measure of the player being involved in long pass plays in the teams offense as well as potentially “Yards After Catch”, which benefit the QB. In TD only leagues this doesn’t matter but in performance scoring leagues this is gold.

Tip: Always take a player with a higher YPA when making draft decisions.

ADP: Average Draft Position in 2010 early drafts. This average is across about 20 of the top Fantasy Football sites and all their mock and expert drafts. (Thanks Fantasy Football Nerd). This is a great indicator of where other owners in your league may draft each player, NOT a ranking for our recommended draft positions. That Draft Sheet is coming this summer. This helps you see where players are most likely going to be available in your drafts. It is important to pay attention to how many fantasy points your league will award for a Passing TD. Many leagues give 4 or 6. For the first time ever, we recommend that owners in 6PT per TD leagues owners should seriously consider a QB in the lower half of the first round in 2010.

Tip: Use ADP to determine in what order to draft your players since players with a higher ADP will likely go fast in your draft.

Chart: Each chart is an exclusive look at the Fantasy Points Against ranking for each opponent for each week, given a 16 week season. The number reflects the rank of the opposing team factoring in the fantasy points given up to QBs. This is NOT based on 2009, this is fresh 2010 rankings provided our prognostication engine and can only be found here. Every other site or magazine you see is using straight 2009 totals, not the 2010 adjustments. It reflects over 100 hours of adjustments for scheme changes, coaching changes, injury returns, drafted immediate impact starters and weighted by the performance of the team over the last 5 weeks of the 2009 season only.

Tip: The lower the number, the better the start. #1 is the best matchup that week in the NFL, #32 is the toughest. BYE weeks are represented as gaps in the chart.

*Note: Pay attention to the HIGH end of each chart. You will notice that Romo’s chart caps out at 24, his highest rank against. Other players may cap out at a 32 HIGH (Actually 34, because the chart adds +2 relief).

*New* Red Zone Score Percentage: Within each breakdown you will see that we use a term we refer to as “Red Zone Score %” (RZS%). This is a percentage we calculated by tabulating all of the team’s Red Zone scores in 2009 and gave credit to the QB if he was involved in either a QB Rushing score, WR Pass, TE Pass or RB Pass. This percentage indicates what percent of the team’s overall red zone scores were credited to the QB and therefore the QBs System Scoring Potential. (QB Rush TD+ WR TD+ TE TD/ Team Red Zone TDs).

What to Look for: Players with high YPA and trends of low FPA ranks against especially during weeks 14-16 (fantasy playoffs). A good combination of low ADP and a high rank in FPA with a lot of involvement in the offense= value. Also watch for mentions of a high RZS% because this means the QB is involved in lots of Red Zone scoring.

Player Name Legend:

• PLAYER NAME (“Yards Per Pass Attempt” YPA #.#) “Average Draft Position” ADP: ### - ##% “Percentage of TD via Pass in Red Zone in 2009″ of ## “Red Zone Chances in 09″

———-

1. (FPA score: 85.3)

Key Players:

• Aaron Rodgers (YPA 8.2) ADP: 16 – 27% of 62

Outlook:

In 2010, Aaron Rodgers faces 8 of the top 10 ranked teams, ranked for giving up the most fantasy points to QBs (adjusted for 2010). He also finished as the #1 fantasy scorer in the league in 2009 (#2 in 2008).

What have you got to be afraid of? Astute NFL watchers will be concerned about the amount of times he was sacked in 2009. Thus, not allowing him to get downfield.

But look at this stat:

Rodgers was sacked a league leading 50 times in 2009, but 25 of those sacks came in the first 6 games. Then the team “called him out” for holding on the the ball too long and he corrected. Finishing with just 8 sacks in the last 6 games. Of course he did hold on to the ball a little too long in his final play of the postseason @ ARI in week one of the playoffs.

If you want a really cool look at the sack totals, you GOTTA check out this link to an interactive sack tracker:Interactive 2009 sack tracker

Why is Rodgers the #1 overall QB in 2010? One stat: he had 5 TDS (1st)  and 304 yds Rushing in 09 (2nd of all NFL QBs). Thats, 270 yd / 3 TDs more than Brees. GB was 5th in Red Zone scoring in 2009 with a strong 56% RZS%. 5 of those Red Zone TDs were Rogers rushing TDs and 8 of them were TE TDs. They only scored Rushing TDs in 44% of their scores.

He has the  4th easiest QB SOS season and 3rd easiest QB schedule in weeks 14-16. There is a strong case to make for taking him on the top 10 in your fantasy draft if your league awards 6 FPTs for a passing TD. He could finish as the top fantasy scorer in the league, again.

Coach Mike McCarthy praised Aaron Rodgers for his “commitment to the offseason program” and says the Packers will “challenge (Rodgers) with more things at the line” this season.

Our position is that Rodgers is a clear cut #1 QB above Brees and Manning, due to Rodgers’ great schedule (see Brees below) and his fantasy playoff matchups.

2. (FPA score: 86.7)

Key Players:

• Tony Romo (YPA 8.1) ADP: 37 – 30% of 50

Outlook:

Jerry wants a Super Bowl at home and he just might get it. Collectively DAL has the one of the easiest schedules in the league and at nearly every skill position.

Tony Romo passed for a career best 4,483 yards in 2009 while everyone undervalued him because of the Owens departure. However he found a rapport with Miles Austin and has even more depth this year with the addition of Dez Bryant. He also had a career LOW in interceptions in 2009.

If you choose to pass on the big three QBs in round one or even top of round two, then Romo is your guy. He affords you the opportunity to grab a top-notch RB and WR in the first two rounds and get Romo in the 3rd. And you still won’t be too far behind the top QBs.

DAL also ranked int he top 10 for QB RZS% with 62% and Romo even had 1 Rushing TD in the Red Zone himself.

He will assuredly give you 2nd round value and could possibly the top QB in fantasy during the playoffs. You know Jerry Jones is not taking his foot off the gas to close out this season, no matter what the situation.

Romo admitted to experiencing a sore arm after throwing 227 passes in 11-on-11 and 7-on-7 drills during the first four days of camp.

His early BYE lets you have him for a critical late season push and he has some serious streaks. Look twice at this chart as his worst rank against is 24. #1 rated SOS for QBs and a top 10 fantasy playoff rank.

Grab Miles Austin, Jason Witten or any of the WRs. Each has their own value at different points.The passing game might start slow, but will DOMINATE in the late season.

3. (FPA score: 93.2)

Key Players:

• Vince Young (YPA 7.2) ADP: 149 – 28% of 32

Outlook:

Can Vince Young learn to throw the ball for more than 180 yards a game? Or will you be praying for 45 yard runs to even out your fantasy week?

He has his flaws, like his 58.4% completion rate and only exceeding 17 completions twice in his 10 starts.

We are talking QB2 at best and he could end up being a really cheap 12th rounder with spot-start potential. You can’t argue about his price, so the risk is very minimal. Keep in mind that in 2009 he finished with these totals for fantasy points:

15, 21, 20, 15, 27 and 7

During his 10 starts in 2009, he averaged over 16 fantasy points a game and ranked among the top 10 QBs during that span.

Even though VY didn’t play an entire season, TEN enjoyed a 4th overall QB RZS% (63%) for all teams with over 20 Red Zone scores. This puts Young only one notch behind a McNabb/Vick Red Zone combination in PHI.

We foresee the same type of run for Vince during his 6-11 in 2010 so he is an excellent candidate for any QB1 you take with BYE weeks issues during that run. Keep in mind that he also gets a piece of all CJ’s receiving yards too.

Chris Simms may have smoked himself out of contention and the mere presence of Simms means TEN lost faith in Kerry Collins.

Commissioner Roger Goodell confirmed that Young will not face a suspension for punching a man in the face at a strip club in June.

4. (FPA score: 95.3)

Key Players:

• Trent Edwards (YPA 6.3) ADP: 278 - 21% of 38
• Ryan Fitzpatrick (YPA 6.2)
• Brian Brohm (YPA 7.5)

Outlook:

This QB situation is a tough one to invest in. They are #7 on this list because of their fantastic schedule, which will most likely benefit Lee Evans more than any QB.

Note that the Bills play the Jets for the second time in week 17, which is after most fantasy seasons are over.

BUF is pretty poor in the Red Zone. In 2009, they were tied for the leagues second WORST in Red Zone TDs with a putrid 50% RZS% for QBs. This team needs to make a large leap to even be a league average.

Coach Chan Gailey said last Friday he already knows who will top the QB depth chart going into training camp, but he’s keeping it to himself until late July.

“Well, it’s still open,” Gailey said of the QB competition. “Don’t read too much into who takes the first snap and who takes the second snap and who takes the third snap. … It’s close.”

Since all three QBs received equal reps throughout the offseason, one can only assume that Trent Edwards will enter camp as the No. 1 QB. Coach Chan Gailey revealed that Edwards outplayed Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Brohm in spring practices.

However, look out for Brian Brohm too: “This offense is suited for me,” Brohm said, according to the Louisville Courier-Journal. “I feel good about that. I’m comfortable with every read we have, every throw we have. Almost everything we’ve done, I’ve done it before either in college or my first couple of years in the league.”

Buffalo placed eight offensive linemen on injured reserve last season, so stability in personnel or “in combination” up front is not a luxury for any QB starter in BUF.

Chan Gailey has a reputation for opening up passing offenses. SO, it could be more than trivial to watch.

5. (FPA score: 96.7)

Key Players:

• Kevin Kolb ADP: 84 – 27% of 52

Outlook:

Even with all his sleeper hype so far this offseason, Kevin Kolb still has a 7th round price tag thus far in early drafting.

He could easily have QB1 value, even that late in the draft. You could have grabbed your two RBs and two WRs by then and still get a reliable QB with upside.

He has a #3 overall QB rank for the season and a #6 fantasy playoff rating. This means good things, especially in weeks 15 and 16. You may think he is unproven, but  take a look at his two starts last season:

He put up 21 and 31 fantasy points in two starts in 2009 (against NO and KC- who are poor-but he faces 8 teams ranked worse than them in 2010)

And both DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek had their best games of the season with Kolb tossing them the ball.

In just 2 games w/ Kolb in ’09, WR Desean Jackson averaged 100+ yds/ 1TD . He also caught his 2 longest passes of ’09: 71, 64.

In just 2 games w/ Kolb, TE Brent Celek ave’d 100+ yds/game (up from 75/game w/ McNabb).

Add to this the installation of a west coast offense in 2010 and the fact that Andy Reid will be calling plays.

Let’s hope Reid doesn’t mix thing up too much. In 2009, PHI was had the highest RZS% (68%) by any team with over 20 Red Zone Scores. A lead leading 5 QB Rushing TDs (2 from Michael Vick) and 6 TE TDs are worth noting.

Kolb has three good SOS stretches, with one coming very late and one to help get you into the playoffs.

6. (FPA score: 98.3)

Key Players:

• Jason Campbell (YPA 7.1) ADP: 153 - 21% of 29

Outlook:

Coach Tom Cable has called the job a “competition” involving Jason Campbell, Bruce Gradkowski, Charlie Frye, and Kyle Boller.

Campbell, though, got virtually all of the first-team reps during OTAs and is clearly the best option. Despite WAS’s horrible offensive output in 2009, Campbell passed for his career best 3,618 yds and 20 TDS.

While he could have trouble reaching those totals with OAK, he will put up QB2 totals as a result of having more talent around him this year (Chaz Shillens is back) and their very favorable schedule.

OAK shared the second worst Red Zone TD total (12) and matched their poor 50% QB RZS%. Although Campbell did rush for 1 Red Zone TD with WAS in 2009.

Campbell’s value comes after his BYE where he will run off a string of 6 out of 7 stellar match ups to end the season. He could be a great pickup during his BYE.

Also note the value of Zach Miller who will benefit from Campbell’s comfort with throwing to TEs.

However, It remains to be seen how long Campbell can last behind a porous offensive line. Do not forget that Campbell took 43 sacks behind a bad Oline in WAS last year, so he needs to get more accurate on the run.

Give him credit for picking a great offseason workout partner in Brett Favre, though.

7. (FPA score: 99.2)

Key Players:

• Matt Moore ADP: 217 – 20% of 40

Outlook:

Matt Moore may not have Steve Smith for a couple weeks this season (hopefully just the preseason), but when he did have him last year, WR Steve Smith had 378 yds and 3 TDs in 4 games with Moore as QB.

In his 5 starts last season, Moore passed for 632 yards and 7 TDs and NO INTERCEPTIONS! He ranked #5 as a fantasy QB during those weeks.

Darin Gantt of the Rock Hill Herald writes that “the gap between Moore and the rest of the [Carolina] passers is considerable.”

The Panthers have been experimenting with 4-WR formations this offseason, but lack the personnel to run it too often during the season.

CAR made the min 20 Red Zone scores for the top half of the league, but 12 of those were RB Red Zone scores. This left them with a league low 30% QB TD RZS%. They only threw for passing TDs in 20% of their 40 red zone visits in 2009.

Owners of Matt Moore in Dynasty leagues shouldn’t get too excited just yet. The Panthers remain a run-first offense, and outside of Steve Smith, they don’t have any proven playmakers in the passing game.

8. (FPA score: 102)

Key Players:

• Mark Sanchez (YPA 6.7) ADP: 148 – 16% of 49

Outlook:

First, Sanchez’s injury: All reports out of New York say Mark Sanchez made it through Jets OTAs and minicamps unscathed after undergoing early-offseason knee surgery.

He is apparently showing no signs of slowing down. He also did a good job of shaking off his rookie INT issues by the end of 2009. It was during his late season playoff push where he really found his groove. The addition of Santonio Holmes will help take heat off the other receivers…when Holmes rejoins the team.

You have to consider that NYJ will be one of the run heaviest teams in the NFL in 2010 so the numbers equate to only about 30 or so attempts a game for Sanchez. Jets only passed for TDs 16% of their 49 red zone visits in 2009.

Although 12 of the teams 24 Red Zone scores went to RBs in 2009, Sanchez rushed for 3 Red Zone Scores himself which gave him a decent RZS% for the QB of the team who led the league in rush attempts.

Its worth noting that Rex Ryan also said that he thought Dustin Keller would be a “fantasy sleeper” this season.

If things pick up for Sanchez late in the season and if the do not manage to maintain leads with their defense (for some reason), then you could have a fantasy playoff sleeper for weeks 14-15. Sanchez has a #9 SOS and the #2 overall fantasy playoff schedule for QBs.

9. (FPA score: 104.3)

Key Players:

• Peyton Manning (YPA 8.0) ADP: 16 -42% of 53

Outlook:

Peyton Manning will be staring right at you in your draft boards during round one and two this summer. He is always hard to pass up. He is going in the top of round 2, but we contend that this might be the year to pass on him. He will be a clear cut top 5 QB, but you might want to grab other less expensive QBs this season due to Manning’s 6 matchups against top 10 defenses against QBs.

Just to give you some perspective, in 2009 Manning outperformed his poor matchups on TWO occasions: Week 3 he put up 37 pts on a then-tough ARI secondary. In week 5, he put up 28 on TEN…who ranked tougher than their injury situation later dictated in week 5. Also in week 14 he lit up DEN for 26 fpts.

Other than that, he performed based on expectation due to his rankings in 10 other games. So he was held under 20 fpts 5 times last season, each time against top 10 Defenses against fantasy QBs.

With such an impressive aerial attack, IND scored 16 of their 35 Red Zone scores on the ground and none of those rushing TDs were by Manning. Manning did have a 54% RZS% due in large part to their 7 TDs to TEs in the Red Zone.

One undeniable plus, though, Indianapolis gave up the fewest number of sacks in the entire league last season (13)

His injury might scare you, but it shouldn’t. Manning’s surgical procedure was a minor one to fix a pinched nerve in his neck. Now healthy, he’ll work with Clyde Christensen at coordinator. He returned to practice during OTAs. Nothing to see there folks.

10. (FPA score: 105)

Key Players:

• Eli Manning (YPA 7.9) ADP: 76 - 23% of 56

Outlook:

Eli Manning posted career high numbers in 2009 with his talented group of young receivers. Steve Smith erupted on the scene and Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks also added depth downfield.

NYG is going to want to do a better job of establishing their running game, now that they have healthier backs. Even still, Eli will be drafted as a low end QB1 in round 6, but if you can get him as your QB2, you may have fantasy gold on your hands.

Consider him a perfect fit on your team if you plan to spot-start between two starters all season and spend your draft picks on RBs and WRs. Eli has an amazing 5 game run with none other than a top 10 easiest opponent.

In 2009, NYG was 10th in the league in Red Zone possessions with 56, but scored TDs on less than half of those. 13 Red Zone TDs came on the ground (1 of them was Manning) and had only a 48% QB RZS%.

However, the Giants still possess one of the best offensive lines in the NFL – David Diehl, Chris Snee, and Shaun O’Hara (all five starters are returning) and second year tackle William Beatty (depth).

Things are a little shaky earlier in the season, but if you have another similarly values QB, you should be able to balance well. Do not forget he was one of the 4,000 yard club in 2009, although the 10th out of 10. But this was still a big milestone for the “other” Manning.

11.. (FPA score: 106.5)

Key Players:

• Matt Stafford (YPA 6.1) ADP: 126 -25% of 36

Outlook:

Hopefully Matt Stafford can improve on his 20 INTs from 2009. He throws a lot and has only started 10 games. Yet still he will be given the freedom to audible at the line of scrimmage this year.

In addition he now has WR Nate Burleson and TE Tony Scheffler to break up defenses and RB Javid Best to become a threat in the backfield. Early reports already indicate that Scheffler and Stafford have already struck up “good chemistry”. Don’t forget about Brandon Pettigrew, who will be back from his torn ACL in time for camp.

The lions certainly improved in the Draft and in free agency, mostly on defense. This might actually hurt Stafford’s value since he is more valuable when the DET’s defense gives up lots of points. He was one of those QBs that you could rely on in the 4th quarter to throw to desperately try to make up a deficit. If their defense starts holding opposing offenses, the running game could become more of a factor.

Even though DET was 5th worst in Red Zone Scoring in 2009 (17 TDs- 47%), their QB 71 RZS% shows they are not afraid to call the QB’s number in DET. Combined, 3 of those 17 TDs were QB Rush TDs.

The offensive line is one of the oldest in the NFL and punished Stafford with 43 sacks in 2009. Many feel DET missed on a big O lineman in the draft to protect their young offensive stars.

Stafford (knee, shoulder) confirmed that his injuries are just about behind him. So if you want to take a flier on a low end QB2 in a very late round, Stafford might be be your man. There are a lot of “ifs” on health so do not take him any higher than the 10th round…leave that to the Lions fan homers in your league.

12. (FPA score: 106.7)

Key Players:

• Carson Palmer (YPA 6.7) ADP: 110 -36% of 50

Outlook:

According to ESPN’s John Clayton, Carson Palmer “looks as sharp as ever” this offseason.

It sounds like months of rest did him well, but reserve your own judgment until camp. The fate of Cedric Benson may also factor into Palmer’s success. If Benson receives any suspension, Palmer could repeat his same poor play he had without Benson in 2009. Carson Palmer attempted 30 passes or more only once in the final 7 games of 2009 with Benson ailing.

Palmer’s arm strength is also a concern as many fantasy pundits who observed Palmer’s late season throwing in 2009 saw issues with his accuracy. Palmer insists his throwing arm is “stronger than ever”, but this situation may be too iffy to bank on until later in the season.

They did sign WR Antonio Bryant from TB and that can only help Palmer with options. Do not get too excited about CIN drafting TE Jermaine Gresham. Carson Palmer has never thrown more than 30 passes to a TE in a season in his entire career as a quarterback. Those are backup or blocking TE target totals for any other team.

Despite the rushing focused offense in 2010, CIN enjoyed a 76 RZS% for QB, which was helped by their 3 QB Rush TDs and 16 to WRs. However, 0 (zero) TDs to TEs.

You have time to wait to see how this all comes together as Palmer’s great matchups do not happen until after CIN’s BYE in week 6. He could be welcomed back with 5 straight good passing matchups and a really solid playoff stretch.

Consider Palmer a “wait and see” with a ton of upside. Do not worry about other owners who draft him, since they may become disenchanted with his early season tough schedule and drop him on his BYE. Put a star next to him as someone to trade for later in the season if you need QB help. His value will be low until his BYE and then skyrocket.

13. (FPA score: 107)

Key Players:

• David Gerrard (YPA 6.9) ADP: 169 -21% of 47

Outlook:

Luke McCown said there is no quarterback competition going on between himself and David Garrard.

“It’s David’s job,” McCown said on Sirius NFL Radio. “There’s been a lot more made about it being a competition than there really should be.” Garrard needs to play better, but his Week 1 starting gig is not in real jeopardy.

Garrard said he understands where coach Jack Del Rio and owner Wayne Weaver were coming from when they questioned his performance this offseason. “I’m very thankful that I’m still here and have a chance to redeem all that,” explained Garrard. By all indications, Garrard had a phenomenal offseason and is no longer on the hot seat entering training camp.

JAX is one of the 10 run heaviest teams in the league, which explains how Gerrard led all QBs in rushing yards last year. He actually led all QBs in rushing yards in 2009. That gave him just under 2 extra points a game for fantasy owners.

In 2009, JAX had 3 QB Rushing TDs out of their 15 Rushing TDs. This still only gave Garrard a mediocre 50% RZS% since he only completed  9 TDs in the air in the Red Zone.

Jacksonville struggled once again in pass protection last year allowing 44 sacks (25th in the league). Although, you can expect the Jaguars’ offensive line to improve in 2010 with all 5 starters returning and the addition of guard Justin Smiley.

Remember they run a lot. Especially in the red zone where they only passed for TDs successfully 9 times.

14. (FPA score: 109.7)

Key Players:

• Brett Favre (YPA 7.9) ADP: 70 – 39% of 69

Outlook:

Tavaris Jackson tells Favre to take his time coming back. He is happy to get some time on the field.

We are not going to pretend for a second that we do not think Favre is back for another round. He wants a piece of the Saints and has had the necessary surgery. We will find out for sure just in time for week three of the preseason.

Besides a moderate matchup against NO in week 1, he does have a pair of softies before his early BYE week. Then its a tough Revis matchup that eventually slides down to a reasonable late season schedule. Your best bet, draft Favre as a QB1 and start him for the first three weeks. Then trade him during his BYE week or hold on to him if you have another QB with a better midseason schedule Carson Palmer (see chart above).

In 2009, MIN was second only to NO in total Red Zone possessions and they converted a league leading 43 of those. No QB rushing TDs but a whopping 13 TE TDs give Favre 56% RZS% of the Red Zone scores, even with RBs scoring 17 times inside the 20.

The Vikings’ offensive line is the 4th youngest line in the league and is the 3rd least experienced as well. . If the pass protection doesn’t improve, QB Brett Favre could take more of a beating this season and then maybe he really will have a reason to retire.

15. (FPA score: 112)

Key Players:

• Jay Cutler (YPA 6.6) ADP: 63 -37% of 51

Outlook:

Alright, we do not like Jay Cutler much in 2010. You can see that in our posting from earlier this summer here. However many folks like the trendy mix of Cutler and Mike Matrz.

But look closely at Mike Matrz. We all know he engineered the “greatest show on turf”, but now he is on grass in a foul weather city with offensive line issues.

While Martz’s teams have been explosive, they also explode. And it usually involves getting the quarterback sacked and intercepted while the running game struggles.

• Martz has been in charge of 10 team’s offenses, either as offensive coordinator or head coach: In each of the last seven years his teams ranked sixth or worse in giving up sacks. They were worst in the NFL at San Francisco in 2008 (55 sacks), second worst in Detroit in 2006 (63 sacks) and third in 2007 with Detroit (54). They were fourth, fifth or sixth with the Rams every year between 2002-05.

• His quarterbacks have ranked sixth or higher in throwing the most interceptions during each of the last nine seasons. They threw the fourth most interceptions or worse from 2002-2007.

• After his first three offenses finished first in scoring, he has had only one offense that ranked higher than 11th in scoring and every one of them except the 2005 Rams ranked 16th or worse.

Jay Cutler has his own issues:

• #1 in the NFL in INTs in 2009 ( by a 6 ints over some no-name QBs) and finished #2 in 2008 only to Brent Favre (BTW: both are managed by Bus Cook…coincidence??

• Cutler STILL has a career losing record as a starting QB at 24-29 =81-63 TD/INT and 33 fumbles. That’s -66 fantasy points in most leagues.

• 27TDs to 26INTs in 2009 (1 INT every 21 passes) and LEADS THE NFL over the past two seasons in those damaging red zone INTs.

• Jay Cutler has thrown more red-zone interceptions than any quarterback in the league since Week 13 of 2008. Cutler’s eight picks inside the opposing 20-yard line are easily the most over that span. Marc Bulger and Jake Delhomme are tied for second most, and they’ve only thrown three red-zone INTs apiece. The Bears have also scored in just 47% of their trips to the red zone which is good for 27th in the NFL in 2009.

One good stat for CHI’s passing game is that they ranked #1 in QB Red Zone scoring last year (83% RZS%). Led mainly by they 11 TDs by TEs in the red zone. Keep in mind the rushing game was in shambles (or the Oline) and were third to the last in RB RZ scoring last year. An uptick in rushing this year may bring that QB percentage down a bit.

BUT, he has an amazing schedule weeks 10-15, but has an evil date with Revis in week 16′s championship week. He ranks well, but just to show you we are not married to SOS, we say do not spend  too much for him.

He is going in the 5th round but you do not want him as a QB1, so unless you are stacked by then already, pass. His price makes him an awkward pick.

16. (FPA score: 116.7)

Key Players:

• Josh Freeman (YPA 6.4) ADP: 199 – 42% of 31

Outlook:

Coach Raheem Morris suggested that Josh Johnson will begin seeing time in Wildcat formations this year.

Josh Freeman will remain on the field, but Morris is looking for ways to get the ball in Johnson’s hands because he’s “so explosive … so talented.” The Bucs won’t use the formation enough to damage Freeman’s fantasy value. They’re just looking to create the occasional mismatch.

Freeman started nine games as a rookie, averaging 204.6 yards per game to go with 10 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. Note that in addition to those 18 picks, he also fumbled the ball 9 times in 9 games. That has to improve. With two promising rookies (Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn) set to become his starting wideouts, he’s actually the senior member of the passing game.

Bucs wanted a 60 percent completion rate, but now Van Pelt wants more. Freeman will need more weapons on offense after completing just 54.6% of his passes as a rookie. But with only 9 games experience, he still has more experience than his 2 starting WRs. Also the Offensive line is the least experienced in the NFL, however, TB was one of only six clubs to use two starting combinations on the line or fewer in 2009.

TB did have some poor stats in the Red Zone in 2009, only 31 appearances and 16 scores gave the starting QBs a horrible 44% QB RZS%. Although Freeman wasn’t the QB in all those visits.

Bucs offensive coordinator Greg Olson has decided to go with a more traditional West Coast scheme this season. This actually favors Freeman because he has much more accuracy on short, West Coast, routes.

Worthy of note: TBs fantasy playoff schedule on 2010. Freeman faces one of the best lineups of soft pass defenses in weeks 14-16.

17. (FPA score: 116.8)

Key Players:

• Donovan McNabb (YPA 7.9) ADP: 82 – 39% of 46

Outlook:

It is still a surprise to many PHI fans that McNabb was let go. Fantasy fans should be excited. McNabb finished int he top 10 for fantasy QBs in 2009 and has a top 10 fantasy schedule in 2010. Of course, he has a new team too.

WAS had some issues on the offensive line but that was helped in the draft by the addition of Trent Williams will bring stability and will fit their zone blocking scheme the best.

You may think Shanahan will go run heavy because of his fantasy spoiler history, but look closer and you may see reason to expect a pass happy approach in WAS this year:

Mike Shanahan‘s last 2 DEN teams posted 38 passes / 24 runs  and 32 passes / 26  runs per game. Plus, offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan ran the passing offense in HOU that led the NFL in passing in 2009. These certainly appear to be good indicators for McNabb.

As long as the suspension talk doesn’t heat up, Santana Moss is the Redskins’ No. 1 receiver. Having the big arm of Donavan McNabb on board will help with longer passes downfield and that feeds to Moss’ strengths.

One thing Donovan will not be used to is working behind a Redskins line that ranked in the bottom five in both yards per carry (3.9) and sacks allowed (46).

Last year WAS S had 8 less Red Zone visits as a team than McNabb did in PHI, yet they actually converted 2 more of those to TDs. 11 of those Red Zone TDs went to TEs giving the team in 2009 an impressive 62% QB RZS%. You can almost expect those TE totals to rise with McNabb.

McNabb enjoys seeing 8 of the 11 worst defenses against fantasy QBs in 16 games with his best pair of matchups coming in the fantasy playoff run, weeks 12-13.

18. (FPA score: 118.7)

Key Players:

• Matt Cassel (YPA 5.8) ADP: 152 -37% of 38

Outlook:

Matt Cassel has all the skills to be a great QB. He has good reads, elusiveness and accuracy. He just needs experience.

Matt Cassel was sacked just eight times in the Chiefs’ last six games, compared to 37 times in the first 10. Jamaal Charles also averaged 6.0 YPC in the final eight contests.

K.C. added talent to its offensive line for 2010, and found a potential building block in RT Ryan O’Callaghan to go with LT Branden Albert and LG Brian Waters. The nucleus will gain some valuable continuity with a full offseason together. This should give Cassel the time he needs to use his skills.

KC converted only 18 of their 38 Red Zone appearances in 2009. However 12 of those were through the air. This actually gives Cassell a surprising 6th overall QB RZS% with 67% of Red Zone scores credited to him. Charles proved to be an effective receiver in close so this could be an interesting stat to watch under Weis in 2010.

It all comes down to protection for Cassel. If he gets smacked around again in 2010, as he did in ’09, it’ll be another long season.

If not, he enjoys 5 really good matchups in 2010, most of which come in the first half of the season. He is going in the 12th round so if you find yourself looking for a QB2, then feel safe that he can pay dividends on spot starts and will actually have Dyanne Bowe and Chris Chambers for an entire season (barring injuries)

19. (FPA score: 119.3)

Key Players:

• Alex Smith (YPA 6.4) ADP: 167 -36% of 39

Outlook:

If you get fantasy points for having a chip on your QBs shoulder, then Alex Smith is your man. But if you are in a standard league, then you want your QB to score, then hope Smith can be the QB he was in his 4 20+ fantasy point scoring starts last year. Keep in mind that was only an 11 game season for him.

He should benefit from training camp with Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree for the first time.

The Niners toyed with some shotgun formations last season, but at the end of the day this team wants to play power football. However could still be considered a matchup-based starter. Even if Frank Gore becomes the entire offense, Smith will still throw him 50 or so passes in 2010.

11 of SFs 23 Red Zone scores went to RBs in 2009. But they scored 11 through the air ( 8 of those to TEs). Smith didn’t play the entire season so if he keeps his grove with Davis in close, this number could rise.

He has a rough late season run but his playoffs matchups are pretty notable. For a 13th rounder you can expect some value. If it boils down to Smith or a kicker, take Smith as your #2.

One big plus for Smith this season is that it will be his first NFL offseason with the same coordinator. The two first-round offensive linemen selected in April will help Alex Smith’s cause. Vernon Davis says Alex Smith is showing improved leadership skills so far this offseason.

20. (FPA score: 123.8)

Key Players:

• Drew Brees (YPA 8.5) ADP: 10 - 31% of 71

Outlook:

Drew Brees is regularly being taken in the 1st round in early drafts and is part of the discussion about the emerging value of QBs in fantasy football. He has all the right things going his way in 2010, mainly that his offensive line, which gave up the 4th fewest sacks in 2009, will all be returning for 2010.

He can rack em up too: Brees threw for multiple TDs in 9 of his last 15 games.

Also NO throws… a lot. They led all QBs in passing yards with 5,069 and pass attempts (635). The Saints were second in the NFL in Red Zone scores in 2009 (41 TDs), but interestingly, they were 4th WORST in QB RZS% with only 41%. When in the red zone, NO rushed for TDs over 51% of the time (21 TDs).

One bad thing, EA Sports announced that Drew Brees will be featured on the cover of the “Madden NFL 11″ video game, set to be released on Tuesday, Aug. 10. Curse?

The other bad thing, a pretty tough schedule. Yes, there are players that can rise above, but with 4 matchups against the leagues projected top 10 teams against the pass, you might have to temper your expectations. He only has two top 5 matchups and a pretty tough fantasy postseason.

Our message here isn’t that he will not be productive and win you lots of games, it is that he will cost you a top 10 overall pick and he needs to have everything, including his schedule, pointing toward production for that price.

For example, Aaron Rodgers is going in the first round but also has the BEST overall fantasy schedule for all QBs. You are finding Brees down here in the bottom 12.

21. (FPA score: 130)

Key Players:

• Joe Flacco (YPA 7.4) ADP: 81 -21% of 57

Outlook:

Anquan Boldin finally getting his payday with BAL. This will definitely help the passing game. But the run attack worked for BAL and worked well into JAN. Do not expect much of a change just because Boldin is on board.

BAL had the 3rd fewest pass attempts in 2009 but LED the NFL in rush attempts. Even though BAL went 6-4 to end the regular season, Flacco only passed for only 10 scores in his final 10 games in 2009.

BAL scored 15 of their 30 Red Zone scores by RBs and 1 Rushing TD by Flacco still only gave him a 37% QB RZS%. BAL simply runs the ball when they get close.

Pass protection is an issue as the offensive line gave up a mediocre 36 sacks. But your main concern should be 4 matchups against the leagues toughest fantasy defenses for passers and a much softer schedule for the run.

For a 6th rounder you almost need him to be a bottom end QB1, really he is a mid level QB2 for 2010.

22. (FPA score: 131.5)

Key Players:

• Chad Henne (YPA 6.4) ADP: 127 – 24% of 54

Outlook:

The biggest offseason pickup was MIA grabbing Brandon Marshall. This might be another situation where 2010 might not be the year this free agent pays dividends. Marshall is also finishing up his final weeks of rehab from offseason surgery.

Chad Henne revealed that the Dolphins have implemented more down-field passes into their offense this offseason to accommodate their new pass catcher.

Henne has the arm to go deep, and Brandon Marshall’s presence will open opportunities down the field for the other receivers. The Dolphins were already passing more down the stretch last season, and Henne finished as the 12th-ranked fantasy QB over the final five weeks.

MIA scored the 8th most TDs in the Red Zone in 2009 (33) but 22 of those TDs were RB TDs leaving Henne with a league worst 33% QB RZS%.

However we are not talking you into any players in the bottom 10, his schedule is terrible. Based on the fact that he is one of three QBs to see Revis in the post season alone we say stay away. He has the league’s 7th worst fantasy playoff schedule for QBs.

He could flirt with low-end QB2 value this year..at best.

23. (FPA score: 136.7)

Key Players:

• Matt Schaub (YPA 8.1) ADP: 35 - 33% of 63

Outlook:

Matt Schaub was our top sleeper of 2009 and he finished by leading the NFL in passing yards, attempts and completions. Schaub was also named the MVP of the Pro Bowl after leading the AFC to a 41-34 win.

However we loved Schaub last year because of his great schedule and top fantasy playoff schedule. You may think those things do not matter, but he delivered many championships last year as proof it does.

This year he has 6 really good matchups, which is more than you see down this far, but he has the 6th toughest fantasy playoff schedule for QBs.

He does get back his favorite security blanket in Owen Daniels, who told fantasyomatic.com  back in March that he will be ready for week 1.

While Schaub also took some big hits, he was only sacked 25 times last season (which ranked in the top five). HOU will also try to do a better job running the ball and have drafted accordingly. They attempted 554 passes last year and might  drop more into a 510 range with a more balanced attack.

HOU had  the 4th most Red Zone possessions of any team in 2009 and converted 33 of those to TDs. With no rushing attack to rely on late in the season, HOU still scored 16 of those through the run. Schaub had a surprisingly low 48% QB RZS% from inside the 20. If the running game pick sup in 2010, that number could actually drop. However Owen Daniels only had a chance to contribute 4 Red Zone TDs before getting injures so with him healthy, the number may correct itself.

He has enough talent around him and enough good matchups to be a QB1 on your team, but his 3rd round price tag is too expensive for a guy who will not likely break 20 pts in any fantasy playoff game. Oh yeah, he faces Revis this year too.

24. (FPA score: 141.7)

Key Players:

• Tom Brady (YPA 7.7) ADP: 30 – 25% of 65

Outlook:

Tom Brady says he’s able to work out harder this offseason than last, when he was rehabbing from knee surgery. Tom Brady’s personal coach, Tom Martinez, confirmed that the quarterback had a broken finger and three broken ribs last season.

Now that those bones have healed and he’s a full two years removed from the ACL tear, Brady should look much more like his old self in 2010.

Remember, FantasyOMatic.com was FIRST to break the news about Wes Welker returning for week 1. Click here to see the tweet. We heard it from Wes himself and this happens, it is a big boost for Brady.

Solid pass protection is the key to this line’s success as the Pats gave up only 18 sacks (3rd fewest) in 2009.

You can’t argue with Brady in the Red Zone, though. NE was 3rd in the league in Red Zone possessions in 2009, and 2 of those were QB rushing scores. giving Brady an impressive 53% QB RZS%.

This will all be great news for Brady weeks 7-12 but with TWO games vs Revis this season and a 9th worst fantasy plaoyff schedule.

We are not saying he isn’t a clear cut QB1 this year, but we are just saying that his top of the 3rd round price tag may be too high for 6 really tough weeks Brady will have this year. To put it in perspective, Brady had one of the toughest late season schedule going into week 11 last year. We TOLD you….but his name held more value than his matchups to many. Instead he scored less then 12 points in 4 of his last 6. he has that same schedule early and late this year, so you do the math.

25. (FPA score: 148)

Key Players:

• Kyle Orton (YPA 7.1) ADP: 193 -33% of 52

Outlook:

Coach Josh McDaniels has declared Kyle Orton the Broncos’ starting quarterback. However that leash couldn’t be shorter. Tim Tebow’s jersey is currently the top selling jersey in the NFL, so the fans are rallying.

“(Orton) is the starter, no doubt,” coach Josh McDaniels said. With a year in McDaniels’ quick-read system, Orton has been head and shoulders above Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow in offseason practices. He’ll have more job security than expected going into training camp, but the loss of Brandon Marshall should temper fantasy expectations.

He could also lose situational red-zone snaps to Tim Tebow throughout the season. Eddie Royal and Demaryious Thomas are both going in around the 8th or 10th rounds thus far, which is indicative of there being no clear but #1 just yet.

19 of DEN’s 25 Red zone scores went to  RBs in 2009 yet they only scored 48% of the time up close.

Broncos agreed to terms with No. 25 overall pick Tebow on a five-year, $11.25 million deal, including $8.7 million guaranteed.

Denver’s pass protection, which allowed only 12 sacks in 2008, took a step back last season allowing 34 sacks (16th best). This season could even go further back with the injuries;  LT Ryan Clady (torn patellar tendon), RT Ryan Harris (toe), and G/C Russ Hochstein (knee). All should be back for camp.

Of larger concern is DEN’s 6 games against projected top 10 ranked toughest defenses against fantasy QBs. Also a 10th worst fantasy playoff schedule. We think this is enough reason to not take a chance on drafting Orton.

26. (FPA score: 150.7)

Key Players:

• Matt Ryan (YPA 6.3) ADP: 83 – 29% of 56

Outlook:

Matt Ryan was a fantasy darling in 2008 and came back down to earth in 2009. Ryan ranked just 23rd in the league last season with 31 completions of 20+ yards. With both Ryan and Roddy White now 100 percent, the vertical attack will naturally improve.

The Falcons indicated they are increasing their no-huddle repertoire from 10-12 plays to about 30. Matt Ryan has a better handle on the offense, can better read opposing defenses, and now knows when to attack, so the Falcons are giving him more responsibility.

ATL scored 13 RB TDs out of their 29 Red Zone scores in 2009. Ryan ended up with a  decent 53% QB RZS% mainly because of his 6 TDs to Gonzales.

Somewhat of a post-hype candidate this season, Ryan is a good bet to increase his numbers across the board. Matt Ryan said that the Falcons have been focusing on their deep passing attack during OTAs.

Ryan ranked just 23rd in the league last season with 31 completions of 20+ yards. With both Ryan and Roddy White now 100 percent, the vertical attack will naturally improve. Ryan is a prime bounce-back candidate with upside.

Atlanta has done an excellent job protecting QB Matt Ryan as well, allowing only 27 sacks last season, good for eighth best in the league.

Our advice is to skip on Ryan this year. 6 bottom 10 matchups and a brutal week14 make him a QB2 at best.

27. (FPA score: 153)

Key Players:

• Matt Leinart  ADP: 156 – 41% of 54

Outlook:

Practice reports on Derek Anderson have been lukewarm at best, while Matt Leinart has allegedly taken a “step forward.” Look for Leinart to start on Opening Day against St. Louis. Obviously, he’ll have to win games to keep the job.

He should have a chance to do wo with 6 weeks of decent matchups. All reports out of ARI this offseason indicate they may try to run the ball more. Most of that comes from a lack of confidence in Leinart and the loss of Anquan Boldin.

ARI was a different team in 2009, and led the league with 70% TD conversion in the Red Zone. This gave Warner a 53% QB RZS% because of his 17 TDs to WRs, which was actually only one less TD than RBs scored in the Red Zone (18). Things will change in 2010.

The Cards’ line is already one of the best at protecting the quarterback (6th fewest sacks allowed in 2009), and the numbers on the ground should improve this season with addition of some depth  from Alan Faneca.

The passing game has a brutal week 15 and 5 bottom 10 matchups. If you want to take a flyer on Lienart early in the season, that may your best bet. They have the 4th worst fantasy playoff schedule for fantasy QBs. However you will not be a playoff team if you do not have a better option at QB late in the season.

28. (FPA score: 154)

Key Players:

• A. J Feeley
• Sam Bradford (r) ADP: 226 -24% of 34

Outlook:

Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo reiterated that A.J. Feeley is currently his starting quarterback.

“It would be an injustice to Sam and the rest of the team (to set a timetable for Sam Bradford),” Spagnuolo said. “He’s in the early stages of developing … He came into the league far advanced from some quarterbacks I’ve worked with. We’ll do first what’s right for the team and second what’s right for Sam.”

Bradford is expected to see time before the season is out. However if Feeley gets all the early season matchups then Bradford comes in around week 7 (most likely week 10), he will get pounded mercilessly until the season is over.

Newly signed No. 1 pick Bradford saw “significant reps” with the Rams’ first-team offense during Sunday’s practice.

STL only had 11 Red Zone scores in 2009. To give you perspective, 17 teams had more RB REd Zone scores than that! Last year they only allowed their QB a 48% QB RZS%, which is due to a poor O line and 11 of those 23 coming from RBs.

STL will need their offensive line to suck it up this year because the pass protection was a wreck last season, as the line surrendered 44 sacks (T-7th most).

If you play fantasy football, you shouldn’t be interested in drafting a STL QB in 2010.

.

29. (FPA score: 156.7)

Key Players:

• Phillip Rivers (YPA 8.9) ADP: 37 -29% of 63

Outlook:

Lots of folks talk about how SD was so pass heavy in 2009. However they were only 25th overall in pass attempts. They did have one of the league’s highest passing TD totals in the red zone, but this also factors in a poor rushing attack which should be improved with the addition of rookie Ryan Mathews. SD has the 7th most Red Zone appearances in 2009, converting 34 of those to TDs. 15 were RB TDs but Rivers was credited with 50% himself.

The biggest concern is not having their top pass catcher and one of their most valuable lineman. Chargers GM A.J. Smith indicated that the team fully expects Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill to hold out well into the season.

Plan on Jackson NOT getting dealt, but possibly not available until week 10. McNeil would be just as important for Rivers so watch that situation just as closely.

Here is your reason to pass on Rivers this year, he has the second toughest fantasy playoff schedule in the NFL. For a guy who is going in the middle of the third round, you should be able to rely on your QB1 in the postseason for that price. 6 bottom 10 matchups and 3 of them in the fantasy playoffs.

To give you more details on the tough SD playoff stretch: Rivers faces these three safeties (Eric Berry – KC, Dashon Goldson-SF, Chris Crocker-CIN). These safeties ranked in the top of the league against the pass in 2009 and have no drop off. Antonio Gates it matched up against  literally 2 of the top 3 defenders against fantasy TEs (Jarrad Page-KC, Michael Lewis-SF and Roy Williams-CIN). Floyd is matched up against 2 of th etop 5 WR defenders in the league (Brandon Carr-KC, Shawnte Spencer- SF and Leon Hall-CIN). Then VJax matches up against Brandon Flowers -KC (6.9 Yards Against is one of the best in the NFL), Then Nate Clemens (7.9 YPA), and Jonathan Jospeh-CIN (6.7 YPA is even better than Flowers). If you actually look at who the individual matchups are, these are some of the worst in the league for the fantasy playoffs at each position. Steer clear!

The other thing to note is that the SD rushing game has the #1 overall easiest schedule for RBs so this offense should balance out this year.

30. (FPA score: 161)

Key Players:

• Matt Hasselbeck (YPA 6.3) ADP: 194 -27% of 48
• Charlie Whitehurst ADP: 297

Outlook:

Coach Pete Carroll confirmed to SI.com that the Seahawks are holding a competition at quarterback, but Matt Hasselbeck remains the team’s starter.

“Matt’s our guy. He’s our starter,” said Carroll. “But Charlie’s going after him. He gives us what we want at every position … competition.” Hasselbeck is very likely to start Week 1, but Whitehurst should end up playing plenty. Hasselbeck is in a contract year. Charlie Whitehurst is Seattle’s QB of the future.

SEA had plenty of  chances to score in the Red Zone in 2009, with 48 appearances and only 19 TDs, this gave them the third worst number of Red Zone scores (19) in the league and one of the worst Red Zone TD percentages (40%).

This uncertainlty cannot help the value of any QB out of SEA. This is also another team that has a really soft schedule for their rushing game this year. 5th worst fantasy playoff schedule cannot be good for whomever is the QB late in the season.

The Walter Jones era is over but SEA has the BEST lineman in the draft blocking for them. Russel Okung will make an immediate impact. Hasselbeck gets a nudge up.

31. (FPA score: 167)

Key Players:

• Jake Delhomme (YPA 6.1) ADP: 262 – 23% of 39
• Seneca Wallace
• Colt McCoy

Outlook:

Dear Browns fans-

Sorry about Lebron.

…those should be the only people reading this outlook because there is simply nothing to see here or in CLE.

Jake Delhomme is the starter going into camp, but he has thrown more than 1 TD only ONCE in his last 20 starts. Delhomme is getting the bulk of first-team reps so far at Browns camp.

CLE only converted 44% of their 39 Red Zone appearances for TDs but 7 of those were credited to one of their QBs.

CLE will be installing even more wildcat packages this season to try to make plays. That doesn’t help in crease a putrid 39 Red Zone visits in 2009.

This passing game is still a couple seasons (and one Colt McCoy) away from being relevant.

32. (FPA score: 183.7)

Key Players:

• Ben Roethlisberger (YPA 8.5) ADP: 118 – 32% of 56
• Byron Leftwich ADP: 335
• Dennis Dixon

Outlook:

Coach Mike Tomlin suggested Thursday that Byron Leftwich will enter training camp as the favorite to start the season opener.

“I think how we distributed (repetitions) is an indication of our mindset at this juncture,” Tomlin said. Leftwich ran the first-team offense all spring, so Dennis Dixon will have to “play lights out” in August to upset the depth chart.

A healthier offensive line was still one of the worst in 2009 (50 sacks) and now just got two big holes blown in it for 2010.

PIT did switch to a passing team in 2009, with 16 of their 27 TDs coming through the air and 2 rushing TDs by QBs. This gave the team a respectable QB 63% RZS%.

There is nothing good here as even when Ben Roehtlisberger comes back after the teams week 5 BYE (projected), he will face 5 of the leagues toughest defenses against QBs in his last 8 games. Add to that the WORST fantasy playoff schedule of any QB and this should be enough for you to stay away.

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