WR Julio Jones 

He led the NFL in Yards After Catch in 2011 as a rookie. Now Atlanta has prepared to pass EVEN MORE in 2012.

He enjoys the easiest schedule in the NFL for fantasy WRs. His most difficult matchups come in the first half of the season, but he will reward owners after his BYE when he faces 5 out of 7 matchups against bottom 10 defenses against WRs. Just when you need him most, in the playoff push and unto the playoffs.

He has a top 20 set of individual CB matchups which make him a WR triple crown. Expected high usage in a heavy passing offense, excellent schedule (just look at that chart!) and great individual cornerback match ups. His only concern is health…the same concerne with all the top WRs.

Jones was a poster boy for regression in 2011, failing to score his first NFL touchdown until Week 9 before going on to finding paydirt eight times in his last nine games. In the 14 games Jones appeared in, he saw 20 percent of Atlanta’s targets and reached double-digits three times.

He plays almost exclusively on the outside, but three of his seven targets from the slot resulted in a touchdown.ESPN’s Jerry Rice nominated Julio Jones as the NFL’s biggest breakout wide receiver for 2012. “I love this kid,” said Rice. “He’s awesome. He’s big, he’s fast. … I think he’s gonna have a breakout season this coming year.” Former longtime NFL personnel man Bryan Broaddus is on board, as well. “Did a bunch of work on ATL and he really looks special,” Broaddus wrote.

Jones “routinely put on a catching clinic” in practice sessions, continuing to impress teammates and coaches. Upon interviewing Dirk Koetter in January, the Falcons brass was convinced the new coordinator would take advantage of Jones’ dangerous vertical and run-after-catch skills.

Fantasy owners will not forget about Jones’ six touchdown outburst over the final four games of the regular season, so adjust your rankings accordingly. We say grab Julio in the second round no matter what. If you decide to not take our advice and he somehow slips to the third round then you MUST grab him there.

Worried about Roddy? Whie he shouldn’t be ignored, since he has all the same opportunities as Julio. Roddy is more valuable in PPR than Standard scoring, but we like Julio before Roddy in both cases.

Something else to think about:

In 2011 Roddy had 29 red zone targets, Gonzales had 10 and Julio only 9.

With some expected regression from both Roddy and Gonzo, you could expect Julio’s red zone usage to rise. Even if it rises a little bit, this makes him an elite player in red zone and long pass play opportunities. With his freakish physical talent, this would make him worth a grab even in the SECOND ROUND.

Through approximately six quarters in three preseason games, the unstoppable Jones has piled up 240 yards and a touchdown on 13 receptions. He’s flirting with first-round draft value. SO basically, if you want him, grab him with your second pick…and we say he is worth the reach. You have our permission to buy into the hype.

WR Brandon LaFell

LaFell finally earned a starting spot in Week 12 and started for the remainder of the year. The highlight of his season was the 91-yard touchdown catch he had in Week 16. He finished with 10.9 yards per target in 2011, 5th in NFL.

Panthers WRs have the 5th easiest schedule for all fantasy WRs in 2012 and the easiest first three weeks, so expect a fast start.

After that strong finish, LaFell offers promise as a downfield threat going forward. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah observes that Cam Newton is “developing very good chemistry” with third-year LaFell. Jeremiah noted that LaFell is more fluid as a route runner this year while “attacking the ball in the air.”LaFell is currently listed as the starter opposite Steve Smith on the Panthers’ depth chart.

Even ESPN’s Adam Schefter says the Panthers “really like” LaFell and believe he’s “poised for a breakout.”

LaFell himself said the coaches are “giving me a big role.”

Last year, Legedu Naanee and LaFell combined for 80 catches, 1,080 yards and four touchdowns while rotating at the No. 2 wideout spot. This year, LaFell has completely locked up the job for himself.

At 6’2/211 with quality skills, there’s third-year breakout appeal here. As an every-down receiver in OC Rob Chudzinski’s aggressive system, there’s a ton of breakout appeal in LaFell.

Plus, with an ADP of 198, you can get him for the cost of a kicker.

TE Jared Cook

Thirty-six of his 83 points last year were tallied in weeks 15-17, so he started to really get it together down the stretch. It should be noted that Jake Locker was the QB for those three games and out of Locker’s 580 passing yards, 335 of those (and a TD) went to Cook.

Cook has the physical talent to emerge as one of the better TEs in the game. At 6’5″ and 248lb, he’s a beast who runs a 4.4/40.

He excelled when flexed out as a wide receiver, as he posted an elite wide receiver-like 11.0 yards per average on 59 targets last year.

Cook had great metrics but he also had only 74 total targets. That lack of target volume is why he had only 4 games with 8 or more fantasy points and 8 games with 3 or fewer fantasy points. Once they made him part of the game plan he ended the season with 21 receptions in his last three games.

Only two TEs with 40-plus targets had fewer targets 20-plus yards down the field than Cook in 2011. Cook’s late season run lends credence to the idea that he will continue that trend in 2012.

Cook was primarily used in passing situations. Similar TEs in terms of their use were Jermichael Finley and Kellen Winslow. All three saw a majority of their snaps on passing downs. Of Cook’s 74 targets, 49 came from the slot position last year.

Being part of an offense with a ton of talented pass catchers will not make it easy for Cook to reach the 100-target mark that will be necessary for him to reach elite tight end status. However a top 5 TE schedule should give him opportunities to fulfill his sleeper status.

Here’s one thing you might not know: In the first eight games of last season, the Titans were tied for 11th in pass attempts. In the final eight games? Sixth-most pass attempts. And in the final three games, when Cook went off? Only the league-leading Lions attempted more passes. They’re much more of a passing offense than you think.

Everyone keeps asking us “who is this year’s Jimmy Graham” and our answer would have to be Jared Cook.We see him as a low end weekly starter so his ADP defines him as a sleeper.

WR Jonathan Baldwin

For those who believe in his talent, plenty of reasons for optimism remain. Baldwin only saw 70% of the team’s snaps once last year, but that number should rise significantly in his second season. He did see 28% of his snaps in the slot and could see the field in a variety of formations in 2012.

Baldwin’s rapid development has been “sensational” early in Chiefs camp. Baldwin is one of the handful of young NFL players drawing the most raves for his work over the past week. Coaches have been impressed with his ability to make spectacular catches seem routine.

NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks notes that he has also “started to figure out how to utilize his superior physical traits to dominate on the perimeter.” We’re anxious to see if Baldwin’s emergence pushes Steve Breaston to the slot.

Two reason we like Baldwin as a sleeper, Cassel has looked more comfortable with Baldwin than he ever did with Bowe and with the Chiefs enjoying a top 11 SOS, Baldwin has 4 green matchups to only two red and a easy schedule to end the season.

According to a report by Jim Trotter of Sports Illustrated, Baldwin has had a fantastic offseason: People in and around the organization say he has displayed greater maturity and focus and consistently made catches during workouts that had teammates and media members shaking their heads (in a good way).

All indications are that the 6’4″, 230-pound freak of nature is poised for a breakout season.

We like him as a WR3 value pick. He will be a weekly flex by season’s end.

RB Donald Brown

His 3.1 yards after contact was fourth best in the NFL among runners with at least 100 carries and averaged 2.9 yards after contact in 2010 as well. His problem at the NFL level has mostly resulted from anemic numbers before contact.

Despite being frequently cast aside for Joseph Addai due to pass-blocking concerns, Brown averaged more yards per route than the veteran in each of the last three seasons and may offer deceptive value in this area under a new coaching staff.

Andrew Luck and the addition of two tight ends in the draft could signal a Stanford-like offensive scheme based on a strong running game. Brown averaged 4.86 YPC from two-tight-end sets last year, which is similar to what Andrew Luck ran in college, and you’ll see a lot of that this year.

Brown accomplished the feat behind a truly dreadful offensive line that ranked 31st by PFF’s run-blocking metrics. The offensive line personnel have improved to 20th going into 2012.

Coach Chuck Pagano has “made it clear” that Donald Brown is his No. 1 running back. Brown “will share snaps and carries,” but he’s on top of a committee that also includes Delone Carter, Mewelde Moore and Vick Ballard. We wouldn’t rule out Brown pushing for 240 total touches, especially if he locks up the passing-down work. However, he’ll likely lose the goal-line reps to Carter and Ballard.

With Delone Carter (rib) sidelined, Brown was used as a goal-line back in the Colts game against the Steelers. On their fourth possession, the Colts worked their way into a first-and-goal from the 3-yard line. The first play was an incomplete pass, Brown ran for two yards on second down, and he then punched it in from a yard out on third down.

Don’t sell Brown short, over the second half of last season, Donald Brown had 492 rushing yards, 16th in the NFL and more than LeSean McCoy, C.J. Spiller, Frank Gore and Roy Helu had during that period.

Through two preseason games, Brown has rushed eight times for 32 yards (4.0 YPC) with that score and caught two passes for 72 yards with another touchdown. He’s the leader of this committee.

We love his lack of true competition and potential to grasp the new offense. Combine that with a top ten schedule for fantasy RBs and Brown could be a steal in the 7th as a starting RB with upside in both standard and PPR scoring.

RB Doug Martin

He is also one of the rare running back prospects who has the ability to play all three downs, as he has shown to be both a capable blocker and receiver out of the backfield.

He could be a solid RB2 now that its clear he overtook Blount. Even before Blount’s groin injury, that looked inevitable. Martin’s first-team reps grew exponentially from preseason game one to game two, and he’s clearly been the more dynamic player on the field, displaying better-than-expected cutting ability along with as-advertised versatility and burst.

Even since Blount’s injury proved minor, we like Martin to lead the Buccaneers’ backfield in 2012 touches. He’d share the early-down load with Blount and handle all passing downs. That’s about Martin’s “floor,” making him quite the low-risk fantasy pick.

Schiano is a run first play caller who likes to set up the down field pass so Martin’s plug and play rookie pass blocking skills will also keep him in the game on more downs that your average rookie.

We’ve seen every one of Martin’s preseason snaps, and he hasn’t made a single mistake. He should open the season as a 14-18 touch-per-game back, and be a 20-25 touch runner by early in the year.

We aren’t excited about TB’s overall SOS, but it gets easier after a 4 week block mid-season. He could perform as a solid RB2 on your team and help you come playoff time with his 9th ranked fantasy playoff schedule.

We are bumping him up our boards on opportunity alone and although he is now going to be a second rounder, he is less of a sleeper and more of a guy we give permission to reach for.

WR Antonio Brown

We pegged Brown as a breakout candidate last year because he was one of the most targeted wide receivers in the league on a per snap and on a per pass route run basis in 2010.

The stat we like is that in 2011, only Roddy White had more receptions on 3rd down than Antonio Brown. Thats out of the entire NFL. This indicates a ton of trust from Big Ben.

Starting with his Week 7 breakout game against Arizona (seven catches, 102 yards), he was 12th in the NFL in targets and tied for 17th in receptions, and he had the eighth-most receiving yards.

Over that same time frame, Mike Wallace was tied for 40th in targets, tied for 44th in receptions and 32nd in receiving yards. Wallace did have more touchdowns than Brown over that time frame, four touchdowns to two.

The proof is that he was 18th in the NFL in targets in 2011 and led the Steelers in targets with 120 and had 7 more than Wallace while wallace had over 300 more snaps!

Brown took advantage of the opportunity and overshadowed fellow teammate Emmanuel Sanders. The only downside to Brown’s breakout season was his touchdown totals.

After he signs his tender, Wallace will be going two or three rounds ahead of Brown.

Brown will again be a strong WR3 for your team.

He only had 2 TDs and you would like to see those rise a bit. Haley should call for throwing the ball more often so hopefully that increase in volume helps Brown.

RB Jacquizz Rodgers

Turner is slowly being phased out of Atlanta’s offense, which is expected to be more pass heavy in 2012. Also, Turner has a lot of wear on his treads in the four years he’s been a Falcon starter, carrying the ball 300+ times three out of the last four years, which included a whopping 377 in 2008.

Rodgers is already predicted to be involved in more passing and off-screen tackle plays. Rodgers is small at 5’9 and 196 pounds, but so was a certain guy named Warrick Dunn, who ran for 900+ yards four out of the six years he was in Atlanta.

If Turner goes down with an injury, Rodgers most certainly can carve out a big role. Falcons coach Mike Smith believes Rodgers is a “three-down back” capable of handling a bigger workload than a complementary player.

The Falcons are probably overrating Rodgers internally a bit, but he’s certainly a better fit for the new, up-tempo offense. “Quizz is someone that we feel is a three-down back,” Smith said. “He can come in and do the things that a three-down back does. He’s is not just a change of pace back.”

Through two preseason games, Rodgers had 57 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries (4.38 YPC), and four receptions for 14 yards.

With OC Dirk Koetter increasing the use of the no-huddle offense, Rodgers and Jason Snelling should combine to equal Turner’s snaps this season.

ESPN’s Pat Yasinskas projects Falcons 2011 fifth-round pick Jacquizz Rodgers as the breakout player in the NFC South this season. Yasinskas sensed “genuine excitement” in coach Mike Smith’s tone during a recent discussion about Rodgers.

We say in the 12th, grab and stash him and he could be one of those waiver wire gems that you look like a genius for drafting. He will be deep on all our rosters this drafting season.

WR Kendall Wright

He has ability to play in both the slot or on the outside, but Wright doesn’t have a huge catch radius and didn’t have to catch many balls in traffic at Baylor.

Wright still did plenty for himself and showed to be one of the better route runners at the college level. In Tennessee, he will likely be the number 2 receiver to Britt.

Wright is expected to be the Titans’ starting X receiver as long as Britt (knees, off-field) is sidelined this year. We fully expect a Britt suspension, and he may not be ready for full-time wideout snaps once he does return.

Although Wright learned all three receiver positions during OTAs, he took the majority of his reps at split end — Britt’s position. Nate Washington is the Z (flanker), and Damian Williams the third receiver.

Wright caught all three of his targets for 47 yards in Saturday’s preseason opener. Working with both the first- and second-team offenses, all three of Wright’s targets came from the hand of Jake Locker.

Wright figures to start at X receiver in Tennessee, across from Washington. The Titans are not counting on Kenny Britt.

Few rookies had a better offseason than Wright. He shined brightly in OTAs and minicamps and preseason and learned all three receiver positions and proved he could fill in for Kenny Britt (knee) if necessary.

Wright’s current ADP is late in the 13th round. There’s a lot of upside here in the flier range of fantasy drafts for a guy with an ADP around 175.

WR Randall Cobb

Cobb was the Packers wideout with the best receptions-per-target percentage last year. Cobb caught 25 of his 31 targets (80.6 percent) and led Packers receivers with 7.5 yards after the catch.

He’s currently going outside the top 160. Although there is a risk that Cobb’s direct involvement in the Green Bay offense may not come this year. Driver has been primarily a slot receiver the past four years but will be 37 years old this year and Cobb could inherit his role and thrive.

If Cobb’s snaps increase at Driver’s expense, the Packers offense will add another explosive element in the form of a Percy Harvin-like open-field talent.

Cobb led the Packers with 58 yards and a touchdown on four receptions versus the Chargers in the preseason opener so grab him in the late rounds of your leagues– before it’s too late.

For now, at least, Cobb has not bypassed Driver at slot receiver. We still expect the dangerous Cobb to emerge as Green Bay’s primary slot receiver this season. It will help his draft value that Cobb managed just 12 yards on two receptions in the Packers’ second preseason game against the Browns.

If your league gives bonus for return game players, Cobb is locked in as the Packer’s return man.

QB Matt Ryan

Especially in the passing game. Offensive assistant Andrew Weidinger reiterated that the Falcons are changing their identity this season. The Falcons haven’t tried to hide their up-tempo, vertical plans for the 2012 season. “When we first came in, coach (Mike) Smith said we were going to run the ball. Now, we are going to throw it too,” said Weidinger, who has been with the Falcons since 2007.

Keep in mind that Atlanta was already 4th in QB pass attempts last season, so throwing “more” sounds exciting from a fantasy perspective. Roddy White and Julio Jones give Ryan maybe the best 1-2 receiving tandem in the NFL. Yet, Ryan suffered 43 dropped passes last season, second most in the league. Ryan suffered 27 drops in 2010 and just 16 in 2009, so we can expect fewer drops in 2012.

In addition, he enjoys a top ten easy SOS. He should have an easy first half of the season with all defenses ranked in the bottom half against fantasy QBs. Most of his tough games come in a mid season stretch until week 13. Then he has a very manageable set of opponents in the fantasy playoffs, except for DET in week 16.

Last year was the most prolific of Ryan’s career and he still managed to land only slightly over the 4,000-yard passing mark and did not reach the 30-touchdown mark (29). Ryan doesn’t run the ball much (only 84 yds last year) but finished in seventh place in number of drop-backs, attempts, and completions.

Ryan ranked 11th in fantasy quarterback points last year. The sum of his situation still makes him a very good fantasy quarterback, but the depth at this position means he is a low-end QB1.

Matt Ryan has upside at his current eighth-round ADP and his fantasy numbers have improved every year since his rookie season, and this season that trend will continue.

QB Carson Palmer

Those are impressive numbers and they look even better when noting that Palmer placed 11th in the ESPN Total QBR metric.

Pro-rate Palmer’s 131 fantasy points in the last nine games the season to a full 16-game schedule and he would have racked up 232 points, a total that would have ranked 10th in the league. And don’t forget those figures were tallied after Palmer joined the team in midseason and had next to zero time to get in synch with his receivers.

Raiders also have the second easiest strength of schedule of all QBs. If Carson responds to his new offense he has nothing but easy sailing on the schedule. He has 7 bottom ten (weak defense) matchups – second best of all QBs.

He did very well against soft opponents last year (as projected here) and with another year under his belt in OAK, we except excellent value in the 10th round on schedule alone. Only Philip Rivers has a softer schedule.

He will see the weakest schedule of opposing pass rushers of any QB in the NFL in 2012, and a middle of the pack pass protecting offensive line should end up giving him more time than he is used to.

So he seems like a solid QB1, but there are some faults. For one, Palmer was also tied for eighth in interceptions in 2011. Plus, the Raiders are changing to a West Coast offense that may not be suited to take full advantage of Palmer’s vertical pass abilities. Palmer posted ten or fewer points in three of his last six starts, so fantasy point consistency could be an issue.

According to Palmer, new Raiders OC Greg Knapp’s playbook features a lot of play-action and move-the-pocket plays. “I think it’s really going to fit the personnel we have,” said an excited Palmer. “The style of play with the offensive line and the zone running scheme, and the speed we have in the backfield, it’s built for making a read, making one cut, and getting vertical and putting pressure on the defense with our speed and our running backs just heading north.”

If Palmer were running a vertically oriented passing attack, he would be a top twelve fantasy QB. As it is, there are enough positives here to rate Palmer as a high-end QB2. We love him as a QB2 in the 10th round, though.

WR Justin Blackmon

Jaguars signed their first-round pick Justin Blackmon and he has already been installed with the first-team offense in training camp practices. The coaching staff looking to get Blackmon as many reps as possible after his ultimately brief training-camp holdout.

Blackmon, at 6’1, will bring to Jacksonville Jaguars is a #1 wide receiver, finally. He wants the ball and most times it is a good idea to give it to him. Most college WR have difficulty at selling their routes, but the Oklahoma State offense went out of their way to get him the ball, but he was never shut down in his career, which is something no other WR in this draft class can say.

Justin Blackmon caught four balls for 48 yards and a touchdown in his preseason debut. Blackmon sat out Jacksonville’s preseason opener because he wasn’t ready to play following an ultimately brief holdout. He played extensively with the first-team offense against the Saints, though, hauling in a 16-yard touchdown pass from Blaine Gabbert for the first points of the game.

The Jaguars appear poised to run a quick-hitting, short-passing based offense in order to minimize Gabbert’s poor pocket presence and an inconsistent offensive line.

As a physical run-after-catch receiver, Blackmon could benefit from that kind of scheme at flanker in Mike Mularkey’s offense. (It’s Roddy White’s old position in Atlanta.)

Blackmon looks to be in great shape, and he’s a power player after the catch who’s gotten open regularly in two preseason contests. We’re liking him as a mid- to late-round WR4 with sneaky WR3 upside.

RB Trent Richardson

But before you get too excited about ANY rookie, consider that in the last three seasons, no rookie RB has averaged over 80 yds a game and played at least 10 games (same could apply for our Sleeper Martin for that matter)

Richardson had been going in the first round of very early season drafts. Unfortunately Richardson’s initial timetable had him back for Week 1, and he’s appeared to remain ahead of schedule. We’d still like to see T-Rich at least practicing. He’s not going to play in any preseason games, so his early-season workload is a major concern.

We tend to doubt he’ll play on passing downs at all this year. Brandon Jackson may enter the game on some third downs as a blitz-protection specialist, but Richardson should flirt with 325-350 touches.

Another concern is that Richardson was drafted behind the 26th rated run blocking offensive line, down from 23rd at end of 2011 season. He faces a decent SOS (11th) but the run specialist personnel he will see this year are in the top 10 in the league, which could make his schedule get tougher.

Don’t freak about about his division. He does not face PIT and BAL twice and will face BAL when they are still without Suggs.In eight games where he was healthy enough to play more than half the snaps last season, Peyton Hillis – an inferior talent to Richardson – averaged 18 carries and 3.5 targets-per-game. Under the same parameters in 2010, Hillis averaged 18 carries and 4.5 targets-per-game.

Richardson will step into a very similar role and should be even more efficient. Speaking of efficient, Richardson has only fumbled one time in his entire career and hasn’t fumbled in his last 550 carrer carries.

Why a BUST? We like that he has dropped from his first round ADP, but will still require a second round grab if you want him. We suggest only taking him as your second RB if that’s your plan. He is a third rounder, no higher. Two surgeries on the same knee in the last 6 months and hasn’t yet played a snap. He could pay off down the stretch, but as a first round or early second rounder, you are leaving guys like Charles and Peterson on th eboard and thats just not a value move.

QB Cam Newton

- First half of the season Cam averaged 299 pass yards a game- second 8 games he averaged 207.

- Over his last 8 games, Newton threw for just 59.1% with 10 touchdowns and 8 interceptions

Yes he was a goal line beast, but this same team just added a blue chip free agent FB to their backfield, for what? To run LESS? His 14 rushing touchdowns overshadowed a disturbing 8:10 TD:INT ratio on the road. The rushing scores will regress.

But yes, he had 14 TDs, which not only topped the quarterback world, they also beat out everyone else in the NFL minus only McCoy.

How much of Newton’s 2011 performance should be credited to the state of the league at the beginning of the season? The lockout really prevented defenses from getting up to speed in the area of blitzes and that was a primary factor in why passing offenses were so explosive early on.

This impacted Newton as much as anyone, as he threw for 374 or more yards in three of his first four games. Newton posted 21% of passing yds in just the 1st 2 games last year. Then managed not a single 300-yd day after week 4 and threw for 208 or fewer yards in five of his last six games.

Newton also led the league in combined interceptions/near interceptions (51). It should also be pointed out that 13 of his 14 rushing touchdowns came on planned rushing plays, and it is entirely possible that total will drop if Carolina tries to reduce some of the wear and tear Newton takes from running the ball.

Ok, so are you back down to earth now?

OC Rob Chudzinski is a pass-first mind with strong vertical leanings. In fairness, improvements can also be expected in Newton might be the most physically talented player in football. But he is not a top three QB.

Cam has a middle of the pack SOS for 2012. Nothing notable besides a game vs ATL in week 14.

He should grow as a passer, but his rushing touchdown total will regress, possibly by a factor of one-half or less. Newton’s fantastic fantasy production as a rookie will likely lead him to be overdrafted as a sophomore.

That, coupled with his rushing touchdown regression means he will not be good value at his ADP. We see him in the 280-300 point range. That makes him an upper-range QB1 but not worth his ADP. Grab McFadden, Forte or Jones-Drew at that spot instead.

RB Marshawn Lynch

Marshawn Lynch put up good numbers overall, especially late in the season, but we see significant room for improvement along the offensive line in 2012. They currently rate 28th out of 32 in run blocking going into 2012.

Lynch is listed at 215 pounds, down seven from last season. The drop in weight could lead to a few more big plays, but it’s fair to question whether he will continue to hold up to a heavy workload as one of the most violent runners in the league.

Lynch looked terrific in Seattle’s second preseason game, carrying six times for 37 yards against Denver. He has cut some weight and appears quicker this season.

Many owners fear suspension for Lynch. The Seahawks haven’t heard any news yet and no news is good news for Lynch. Previous reports have suggested that he won’t face a 2012 suspension because his pending DUI case won’t be finalized until after the season. Additionally, his most recent transgression involves the league’s substance abuse policy. All his previous incidents were related to the personal conduct policy. Still its an issue.

We do not like his 4th worst RB SOS and his third worst fantasy playoff SOS and the offensive line issues scare us too. We like Lynch in the early third round, but there is no way he lasts that long. He is going in the early to midiv align=”center”d second round and that’s a pass for us.

RB Frank Gore

Once a workhorse in San Francisco, Gore’s legs are catching up to him quickly at 29, already three years past the average peak for running back fantasy performance. The 49ers must have felt the same way during the draft as they took former Oregon burner LaMichael James with a second round pick.

49ers RBs coach Tom Rathman suggested one running back won’t carry the load in the backfield this season. “We need to keep (Frank Gore) healthy,” Rathman explained. ‘We need to keep him fresh so he’s an impact player for us.”After Gore’s receptions total plummeted last season, he’s in for a decrease in carries and goal-line work with the addition of short-yardage specialist Brandon Jacobs and change-of-pace back LaMichael James.

ICON SMI

We’d advise steering clear of Gore at his current late-third round ADP.

Another sneaky stat is that Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James and Kendall Hunter are not blocking backs. Unfortunately for Gore, he is. SO if they want to limit his carries, he might end up seeing a bunch of them as he comes in to pass block. No fantasy points for good blocking.

SF runners have the 5th toughest fantasy RB schedule in 2012 and the third worst fantasy playoff SOS.

Their offensive line is great as run blockers but this will be a shared-load approach so we do not like any of them at this point.

RB Michael Turner

HOWEVER, those 2011 totals were inflated because of a game vs the decimated the TB run defense for 172 yds and 2 TDs in week 15 late in the season. Also, six of Turner’s 11 touchdowns last season came in just three games: Week 4 at Seattle, Week 6 versus Carolina and the aforementioned Week 17 versus Tampa Bay.

In his prior 5 games (weeks 12-16) he averaged just 3.3 YPC, 53 yards a game, had fewer than 80 yds in all 5 and scored only one TD in those 5 games.

Coach Mike Smith indicated Michael Turner will have a reduced role in 2012. “We want to keep (Turner) as our feature back, but we need to make sure we some of the other guys carries as well,” said Smith, adding that he wants Turner on a “pitch count in terms of the numbers of carries.”

The cautionary tale with Turner is that he is going into his age-30 year. This is a season where he could join the long list of running backs who fell off a cliff at that age.

The reason we drop him down an entire round even though the Falcons have a decent SOS this year is because we love Jaquizz and more importantly, the Falcons already threw th eball a ton, but now installed an offense that will throw even more. Thats make a plodding bruiser of a back even less valuable in our minds.

Turner rushed three times for -3 yards and caught three passes for 14 yards against the Bengals in the Falcons’ second preseason game.

Dirk Koetter’s pass-first offense has seen 34 Matt Ryan pass attempts versus just eight carries (1.75 YPC) for Turner through two games. When the coaches go back to watch this film, they will find that Turner is an ankle weight on their fast-paced attack.

If the Falcons want to operate at peak efficiency, Turner will have to come off the field more often in favor of Jacquizz Rodgers.

WR Victor Cruz

He appeared in 20 games during one season. Despite not playing much the first two weeks, he saw 22 percent of Manning’s targets on the year – an average of 7.6 per game.

If you were lucky enough to land Cruz off waivers, you probably made it to the playoffs. Even with rookie Rueben Randle in the fold, Cruz will again be the primary slot option for Eli Manning this year. Cruz plays from the slot quite often, as shown by the fact that 115 of his 151 targets (76 percent) and eight of his 10 touchdowns (80 percent) last season came while lined up inside.

It’s important for Cruz’s fantasy value as well because Eli Manning has heavily targeted his slot receiver going back to Steve Smith.

Cruz achieved 11.6 yards per target in 2011, 4th in NFL. He had only one less target than Nicks did in 2011.

The Giants have a top ten easiest schedule for fantasy WRs, but Cruz gets the short straw out of this crew. He faces a league leading 9 red matchups this season including two in the fantasy postseason. Nicks only faces four and he has two green matchups to boot, Cuz has two of his own but little breathing room.

Last season Cruz only faced two red matchups last season and averaged 13 fantays points against them, while averaging over 20 fantasy points a game against green corners.

We like Nicks as the value Giants WR to pick out of these two. The 9 red matchups tell us he is bound for a regression. Only a second year starter and will face Brandon Carr, Carlos Rodgers, Nate Clements, Charles Woodson, Brent Grimes. Its like some video game where you throw the best corner against him to try to beat him down all year.

Expect a lot less than what we saw last year. If Cruz is in the slot, that leaves Ramses Barden with an advantage over Jerrel Jernigan for the No. 3 role.