Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 3) Round: 1
Graham Harrell (ADP: 300+) Round:
B.J Coleman (ADP: 300+) Round:

There is not much reason to think the game plan on offense will change much in 2012, with a weak corps of RBS and Starks under impressing in camp. His offensive line is improved and rates as one of the league’s best going into 2012 in pass protection. He lost Scott Wells, but gained Jeff Saturday. Even with Joe Philbin hired away by the Dolphins, Green Bay retains consistency by promoting Tom Clements from within.

It’s hard to put Rodgers’ 2011 into words, but consider: 39. That’s how many more touchdowns Rodgers threw than interceptions compiled in 15 games.

Rodgers is the clear No. 1. The difference between Rodgers and No. 2 – Tom Brady in 2010 – is the same as the difference between No. 2 and No. 11.

What’s more, he actually had a bit of an off-year in rushing, as his 257 yards were second lowest of his career and the three rushing touchdowns were a career low.

The only negative one can hit Rodgers is that he has the second toughest schedule of any fantasy QB this year. He has enjoyed a few very good fantasy schedules in the last few seasons. He also faces the WORST schedule against pass rushing personnel in 2012 as well. He does have a top ten pass protecting offensive line this season, but they will be put to the test. He can overcome.

Do not panic if he starts off slow against SF, CHI, SEA in the first month. he will bounce back with 6 straight bottom 10 defenses vs Fantasy QBs. If there is ever a time to trade for him, it will be in week 3.

Rodgers is one of those players for whom a tough schedule does not justify a reduction in fantasy draft value. He is the number one quarterback and number one overall player in you fantasy draft if you score 6 pts per TD in your league.

UPDATE: Rodgers reminds us all that his feet make him the best fantasy QB.  He currently leads the Packers in rushing in the preseason. Rodgers will likely finish the exhibition season 20-of-41 (48.8 percent) for 229 yards (5.6 YPA), one touchdown, and two picks — without Jermichael Finley and Greg Jennings for the most part

Graham Harrell:

After McCarthy touted Harrell as the backup of the future last August, the Packers more than doubled his practice squad salary. The team went on to promote Harrell to the 53-man roster in December to prevent the Bills from poaching him. The former Texas Tech star is slated to replace Matt Flynn as Aaron Rodgers’ backup.

UPDATE: Should be Colt McCoy here

New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees (ADP: 7) Round: 1
Chase Daniel (ADP: 300+) Round:

- No Sean Payton:

You hear things like the fact that In 2 of 3 games played w/o Sean Payton in 2011, Brees threw more INTs than touchdowns and had a passer rating below 75. HOWEVER, truth is that the Saints’ offense averaged 476.1 yards and scored more than 40 points six times in the 10 games Pete Carmichael Jr. called the plays last season. Carmichael took over play-calling duties after Sean Payton blew out his knee during a Week 6 sideline collision. The offense didn’t come close to missing a beat. Even with Payton suspended for the entire 2012 season, we wouldn’t downgrade Drew Brees.

- Losing Robert Meachem at wide receiver:

Meachem was valuable to Brees but was not a star receiver in an offense that focuses on one guy. Brees’ true top receiver is Jimmy Graham (146 targets) and he still remains with the Saints. The Saints were 3rd overall in targets to TEs and 22nd in targets to WRs.

He also still has Lance Moore (72 targets) and Marques Colston (105 targets) and BOTh of those WRs had more targets than Meachem did in 2011.

-Losing his best offensive lineman in Carl Nicks:
Nicks might be one of the best linemen in the NFL but he was replaced in New Orleans with Grubbs. Grubbs graded out as Pro Football Focus’ sixth-best left guard in 2011, but Nicks was significantly better in both run and pass blocking. Nicks is also more than a year younger. This is a downgrade, but Grubbs is capable.

- Brees plays better in domes than on grass:

In 2011 Brees scored 20.2 fantasy points per game on GRASS vs 25.1 in DOMES. He plays 1 more GRASS game in 2012 than he did in 2011, including 1(@NYG) in the fantasy playoffs (plus another @ Dallas).

- Brees plays better at home than away:

Brees performs at Rodgers’ level at home, but his yardage (7.5 YPA) and touchdown (4.6% TD/Att) rate stats are barely above league average on the road. Brees scored 20.75 fantasy points per game in away games and 26.75 per game at HOME. in 2011. Conversely, Bress scored 26.7 ffantaasy points per game at HOME vs 20.6 fpts/game AWAY. He plays 7 home vs 8 AWAY in 2012 and 2 of 3 away in fantasy playoffs.

This last point causes us most concern. Really just because he faces 2 of 3 away games outside (one of those is Dallas’ turf, though) in the fantasy playoffs. Yet of the big three, he has the softer fantasy playoff schedule.

However he finishes the regular fantasy season (10-13) with the most difficult schedule of all three. After week 8, he sees four top 5 projected defenses against fantasy QBs. The schedule isn’t trivial.

Brees is solid and you cant go wrong. Brady and Rodgers face very bad schedules this season so Brees’ soft schedule could make him the best value of each of those three. He will also most certainly be the last QB off the board of those three because of the offseason news.

However, his fantasy playoffs make us recommend to take him if he is still left in the top of the second round. He can certainly get you to the playoffs, almost guaranteed…but he might make you nervous in the second half of the fantasy regular season. But things look better once you get to the fantasy playoffs.

Lets look at the fantasy playoff matchups for each of the top three QBs (number represents ranks vs fantasy QBs w1=easiest matchup):
Rodgers= DET(25), CHI (27), TEN (16) -> 68
Brady= HOU (31), SF (28), JAX(23) -> 82
Brees= NYG (10), TB (20), DAL(18) -> 48

So of the big three, Brees is your guy in the fantasy playoffs. To tip him over to back to a safe play, he faces the third easiest set of free safeties in 2012 and has the 10th best pass protecting offensive line. 5 green matchups make him the most of all the top 5 QBs

Chase Daniel:

Considering the high-powered offense, Daniel is a must-add, but he’s not nearly as good as Brees and the Saints have the ability to turn to the run game. Stash him.

New England Patriots

Tom Brady (ADP: 6) Round: 1
Brian Hoyer (ADP: 300+) Round:
Ryan Mallett (ADP: 300+) Round:

In 2011, Brady, even without a prototypical deep-threat wide receiver, completed more passes longer than 20 yards than any other QB (71). He had nine more in the playoffs.Brandon Lloyd, Brady’s newest weapon, has caught more 20+yders than any WR since 2009.

This looks like a great combination for opening up the passing game a bit more downfield in 2012. Brady was one of only three quarterbacks to post a YPA of 8 yards or higher on a pass attempt volume of at least 600 passes. That gives him a rare combination of volume and productivity but he might actually be able to improve on both of figures now that the Patriots have added Lloyd to their vertical passing game.

NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi suspects the Patriots may “redefine” their offense this offseason, offering “a little bit more power.” The “dink-and-dunk” attack is lethal against lesser defenses, but Josh McDaniels figures to stretch the field more against quality defenses in 2012. The addition of two fullbacks suggests the Pats may look to incorporate more running plays as well.

The Pats won’t stop winging it, and Brandon Lloyd will open things up underneath.

But is Brady the top fantasy QB in 2012? We say no. Here is why:

Some physiologists say that the human body deteriorates more between the ages of 35 to 40 than it does at any other time frame, and Brady just hit the age of 35.

Lloyd had one great season under McDaniels tutelage but pretty much did nothing in the next season , part of which was also under McDaniels tutelage. If Lloyd doesn’t solve the Patriots stretch vertical issues, Brady will likely once again struggle in that very important metric..

Finally, even though Brady brings it against tough opponents, he has the 4th toughest schedule of all fantasy QBs. He faces 4 easy matchups all season, only two of those at home. However he has to deal with ARI, SEA, STL (all will be surprise secondaries in 2012) and then his fantasy playoffs are aweful with HOU, SF and JAX ( a bounceback secondary after they return everyone from injury).

Still, Brady is one of the safest picks out there in 2012…just not the top QB off the board and just barely under consideration int he fist round of 6pt TD leagues. Tom Brady remains a top-five fantasy QB regardless.

Ryan Mallett:

Much like with Matt Cassel a few years ago, Brady’s would-be replacement is a must-own if Brady goes down.

Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton (ADP: 11) Round: 1
Derek Anderson (ADP: 300+) Round:
Jimmy Clausen (ADP: 300+) Round:

Yes he was a goal line beast, but this same team just added a blue chip free agent RB to their backfield, for what? to run LESS? His 14 rushing touchdowns overshadowed a disturbing 8:10 TD:INT ratio on the road. The rushing scores will regress.

But yes, he had 14 TDs, which not only topped the quarterback world, they also beat out everyone else in the NFL minus only McCoy.

How much of Newton’s 2011 performance should be credited to the state of the league at the beginning of the season? The lockout really prevented defenses from getting up to speed in the area of blitzes and that was a primary factor in why passing offenses were so explosive early on. This impacted Newton as much as anyone, as he threw for 374 or more yards in three of his first four games. Newton posted 21% of passing yds in just the 1st 2 games last year. Then managed not a single 300-yd day after week 4 and threw for 208 or fewer yards in five of his last six games.

Newton also led the league in combined interceptions/near interceptions (51). It should also be pointed out that 13 of his 14 rushing touchdowns came on planned rushing plays, and it is entirely possible that total will drop if Carolina tries to reduce some of the wear and tear Newton takes from running the ball.

Ok, so are you back down to earth now?

OC Rob Chudzinski is a pass-first mind with strong vertical leanings. In fairness, improvements can also be expected in Newton might be the most physically talented player in football. But he is not a top three QB.

Cam has a middle of the pack SOS for 2012. Nothing notable besides a game vs ATL in week 14.

He should grow as a passer, but his rushing touchdown total will regress, possibly by a factor of one-half or less. Newton’s fantastic fantasy production as a rookie will likely lead him to be overdrafted as a sophomore. That, coupled with his rushing touchdown regression means he will not be good value at his ADP.

We see him in the 280-300 point range. That makes him an upper-range QB1 but not worth his ADP. Grab McFadden, Forte or Richardson at that spot instead.

Derek Anderson:

Plain and simple, Anderson isn’t very good. The Panthers will go extremely run heavy if Newton gets hurt.

San Diego Chargers

Philip Rivers (ADP: 57) Round: 5
Charlie Whitehurst (ADP: 300+) Round:

Antonio Gates was a distant second with four targeted interceptions. Jackson has departed San Diego, but Rivers’ success has never been a function of Jackson’s presence. Rivers led the league in yards when Jackson held out for most of 2010.

Over the final five games last season, no quarterback had a higher QBR than … Philip Rivers (94.4 out of a possible 100). Last season, Mike Tolbert and V Jackson had 12 drops in 186 targets. The rest of the Chargers had six drops in 354 targets. Mike Tolbert and Vincent Jackson are no longer with San Diego.

When you take out the impact of drops, his completion percentage has been either 75 or 76 % each of the last four seasons. Rivers really caught on down the stretch. After throwing for just seven touchdowns in his first seven games, he threw 20 touchdowns in the final nine games.

A correction on a poor 13 TD:12 INT ratio on the road will lead to better fantasy production in 2012. His numbers should bounce back in 2012. His 20 interceptions were a career high, and his 27 touchdowns were the fewest he’s thrown since 2007. A 30-touchdown season is quite likely.

But San Diego’s biggest question is, and will be right into the regular season: How will they take care of Rivers with a rebuilt offensive line? Jared Gaither has replaced former Pro Bowl selection Marcus McNeill at left tackle. Tyronne Green has replaced former Pro Bowl selection Kris Dielman at left guard.

Few personnel people in the league believe Green can raise his game to anywhere close to what Dielman did for the Chargers, so that could limit what Norv Turner’s offense can do in the middle of the field. For his part, Gaither has been sidelined by back spasms for the majority of training camp. The patient Chargers maintain that Gaither is “day-to-day,” but he’s not expected back on the field until late this month. Undrafted rookie Mike Harris is working on Philip Rivers’ blindside in the meantime.
It all means plenty of defensive coordinators will overload the left side, which is Rivers’ blind side, in the pass rush to see if Gaither/Harris and Green are up to the challenge.

The reason we like Rivers an entire round before his current ADP, is because of his deluxe strength of schedule. He has the 3rd easiest schedule for fantasy QBs. He faces 7 teams projected to be the bottom 10 against fantasy QBs. He should make the most of it. His toughest matchup is ATL and that is early in week 3.

And they will throw. Last year he was tied for 3rd most pass attempts in the NFL. He had 17 or more fantasy points in 8 contests last year, threw for over 300 or more yards in 6 games

If you miss one of the top 5, wait on Rivers.

UPDATE: We have been dropping him because he appears to still have arm strength issues. Rivers has thrown three interceptions and one touchdown through two preseason games.

Charlie Whitehurst:

Whitehurst has gone from Chargers third-stringer to Seahawks future starter back to Chargers third-stringer in the span of just over two years. Owner of a career 54.2 completion percentage on 155 pass attempts, Whitehurst simply isn’t accurate or aggressive enough to be more than a low-end backup. On the bright side, he knows Norv Turner’s system. The Chargers’ pass offense is strong, however, so he’s worth keeping an eye on.

Detroit Lions

Matthew Stafford (ADP: 14) Round: 2
Shaun Hill (ADP: 300+) Round:

Stafford has the arm strength and a wide receiver in Johnson, who can terrify a secondary. Stafford had 16 completions longer than 40 yards in the regular season and six more in the playoffs.

Yet, don’t be surprised if Stafford takes a step back with his team calling more run plays and so many other top quarterbacks racking up fantasy points with their legs. He only scrambled 13 times last season.

Stafford has the third toughest schedule of any fantasy QB (at San Francisco, at Tennessee, at Philadelphia, at/vs. Chicago, vs. Seattle and vs. Houston being among the biggest of the potential road bumps). We consider Stafford a draft risk due to his second round ADP. Considering he plays both ARI and ATL in the fantasy playoffs with another road game @ GB (only 14 pts per game vs weak GB secondary in 2011). He faces a total of 7 defenses currently projected to be the top 5 toughest vs fantasy QBs.

Last year he had a very soft strength of schedule and made the most of it. Not that he isn’t a big time fantasy QB…you just have to expect regression on schedule alone this year and he is not worth a second round pick. You’ll see, trust us.

It’s one thing for defenses to adjust to an opponent during the season and another to have a full offseason to devote to finding ways to stop him, so Stafford and this offense will have to show that they can adjust to the new adjustments.

No matter how tough the defenses are, Detroit will be going after them with a ton of passes. That should keep Stafford above the 600-attempt bar and even if he were to see a slight drop-off, that type of volume and quality still equals a high-end QB1. Just not a second round pick.

Shaun Hill:

The pass-heavy Lions offense would give Hill an extra couple of opportunities at fantasy points, but he’s not good enough to warrant starting consideration. Grab him for your bench.

Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning (ADP: 51) Round: 5
Caleb Hanie (ADP: 300+) Round:
Brock Osweller (ADP: 300+) Round:
Adam Weber (ADP: 400) Round:

But assuming he is healthy and his arm strength is back to normal, Peyton is still as dangerous as they come. He was the third-best QB in 2010. If that occurs again this year, it might mean as many as 650 pass attempts.

He is likely to last until late in the 4th or early in the 5th round in most draft rooms. A fantasy owner could use those first picks to stockpile elite running backs/wide receivers/tight ends and then draft Manning. If Manning turns out to be a top five fantasy quarterback, that team will be hard to beat.

That same owner could also wait until a couple of rounds later and then pick up a good QB2 (e.g. Rivers, Roethlisberger, Schaub, Cutler) as a high-quality insurance policy in the event that Manning isn’t back to being his old self (in addition to potentially starting the QB2 in certain matchup situations).

This opportunity may go away if Manning has a great preseason and sees his fantasy value move up into rounds 2-3, but until that happens, he offers unique value for a low-end QB1.

Many say Manning was product of the dome in Indianapolis and might not do as well on grass in the elements. Not exactly. Manning has a 32:18 TD:INT ratio at home, compared to 40:16 on the road over his last two seasons.

He has a 6.2 TD percentage in indoors games over his career and a 4.9 TD percentage in outdoor games. He has thrown nearly the same amount of interceptions in 14 less games outdoors. Assuming he plays all 16 games this season for the Broncos, Manning will play 15 games outdoors.

He also has to get used to something else, he has the 4th worst pass protecting offensvie line in the NFl this season. No one gets the ball out faster than Manning, so that will mask some personnel issues, but he might see a little more pressure than he remembers in his last active season.

We are going to rank Manning higher than most sites due to his schedule alone. We see his as a low end fantasy starter with risk, but a huge upside for where he is being drafted.

UPDATE: Apparently has issues throwing to his right

Caleb Hanie:

Going from Manning to an ineffective Caleb Hanie would be a huge letdown for the Broncos’ offense and your fantasy team. Instead, take a shot on rookie Osweiler, who would inevitably get a chance

Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan (ADP: 69) Round: 6
Chris Redman (ADP: 300+) Round:

The Falcons haven’t tried to hide their up-tempo, vertical plans for the 2012 season. “When we first came in, coach (Mike) Smith said we were going to run the ball. Now, we are going to throw it too,” said Weidinger, who has been with the Falcons since 2007.

Keep in mind that Atlanta was already 4th in QB pass attempts last season, so throwing “more” sounds exciting from a fantasy perspective. Roddy White and Julio Jones give Ryan maybe the best 1-2 receiving tandem in the NFL. Yet, Ryan suffered 43 dropped passes last season, second most in the league. Ryan suffered 27 drops in 2010 and just 16 in 2009, so we can expect fewer drops in 2012. H

In addition, he enjoys a top ten easy SOS. He should have an easy first half of the season with all defenses ranked in the bottom half against fantasy QBs. Most of his tough games come in a mid season stretch until week 13. Then he has a very manageable set of opponents in the fantasy playoffs, except for DET in week 16.

Last year was the most prolific of Ryan’s career and he still managed to land only slightly over the 4,000-yard passing mark and did not reach the 30-touchdown mark (29). Ryan doesn’t run the ball much (only 84 yds last year) but finished in seventh place in number of drop-backs, attempts, and completions.

Ryan ranked 11th in fantasy quarterback points last year. The sum of his situation still makes him a very good fantasy quarterback, but the depth at this position means he is a low-end QB1. Matt Ryan has upside at his current eighth-round ADP and his fantasy numbers have improved every year since his rookie season, and next season that trend will continue.
Chris Redman:

This offense continues to move away from Michael Turner and towards the passing game. Redman could be a decent emergency QB2 if called upon.

Philadelphia Eagles

Michael Vick (ADP: 35) Round: 3
Mike Kafka (ADP: 300+) Round:
Nick Foles (ADP: 300+) Round:
Trent Edwards (ADP: 500) Round:

He has a career high of only 21 passing touchdowns.

For Vick, 26 of his 40 passing touchdowns have come on the road over the last two seasons. Additionally, he scored on just 1.3 percent of his carries in 2011 after putting up a 9.3 percent mark in 2010. That will regress in 2012. Expect top-five production when he’s healthy.

Vick promises to make a “conscious…cognitive” effort to better protect himself from injury this season. “(My) motto has been this for the last six months, and I repeatedly said to myself: ‘Get the next yard on the next play,’” Vick said. “So I just want to give myself ample opportunity. Praying to God that I can play sixteen games. I know that’s the key to the season.” It’s hard to teach an old quarterback new tricks, but Vick certainly sounds committed to reining in some of his more reckless tendencies. Vick has appeared in all 16 games just once in nine seasons, though he did appear in at least 15 games four times between 2002 and 2006. Losing star left tackle Jason Peters to an offseason injury is not going to help keep the somewhat brittle Vick healthy.

The Eagles 622 rushing yards on quarterback scrambles were by far the most in the league and largely the result of Vick’s efforts. But maybe he could rush a few less times and maybe last an entire season.

It’s possible the Eagles will end up throwing the ball more often this year but keep in mind that Vick has never come close to throwing 500 passes in a single season. Vick is no longer a first round pick, but he can still score 20 points per game routinely “when healthy”. He’s a strong fantasy quarterback but the upside just isn’t there to rank him among the top five elites at that position.

UPDATE: We are dropping Vick on our boards as his injury issues seem unavoidable

Mike Kafka:

Kafka hasn’t shown that he’s NFL material, but the Eagles’ offense has a history of turning underwhelming quarterbacks into decent fantasy plays. He’s worth keeping an eye on. He worked ahead of Trent Edwards as the Eagles’ second-string quarterback during this week’s OTAs. Sporting a stronger arm after hitting the weight room hard this offseason, Kafka is making throws “which he didn’t come close to making in his first two years,” according to Eagles insider Adam Caplan. Kafka is clearly in the driver’s seat to be Michael Vick’s primary backup this season

New York Giants

Eli Manning (ADP: 50) Round: 5
David Carr (ADP: 300+) Round:

As a result, he had more completions longer than 40 yards last season than any other quarterback. Everyone saw in the Super Bowl just how accurate Eli can be when throwing deep.The development of Victor Cruz into an elite wideout and the addition of Rueben Randle in the draft should keep the Giants at or near the top level of pass catching talent in the NFL. Manning is one of the most durable quarterbacks in the league, as he has posted seven consecutive seasons with 16 starts.

However, the Giants have issues with their pass blocking line. They rank 3rd worst going into the 2012 season, but but luckily they do face the 11th easiest schedule against opposing pass rushers.

Eli has a bottom half SOS schedule in 2012. He has a couple nice matchups to get him into the fantasy playoffs, and only one bad matchup in the fantasy post. He does have 2 of 3 games AWAY in the fantasy post season this year.

The Giants also have turned over much of their tight end corps and their new primary pass catching tight end (Martellus Bennett) has a history of underachievement. Manning is like the Giants team in that he can be very inconsistent.

The Giants recent record of talent development provides confidence that the personnel changes will work out. Manning’s inconsistency is the only thing holding him back fantasy-wise but his durability more than makes up for that. He’s an upper-end QB1, but he is still a step below the top quarterbacks, and he should be drafted in mid-to-late rounds.

David Carr:

Carr, a former No. 1 overall pick, has some talent and plenty of experience. The Giants aren’t afraid to chuck the ball around either, which gives him a little bit of fantasy potential. He’s worth a look for your bench if Eli gets hurt. Just remember Eli never gets hurt.

Dallas Cowboys

Tony Romo (ADP: 52) Round: 5
Kyle Orton (ADP: 300+) Round:
Stephen McGee (ADP: 300+) Round:

Romo enjoyed an excellent SOS in 2011, as we projected here last preseason. However, he had injury and decision making issues.Of course, for those of you that owned him last year and managed to make it to your fantasy championship (like this editor) then he also ripped out your heart and threw it to a guy on the other team after his one pass and out performance. Hey, at least you got to enjoy your christmas.

Speaking of interceptions, much is made of Romo “choking” when the Cowboys need him most, but he continually delivers for fantasy owners. Romo tends to throw a lot more touchdowns at home than on the road, but curiously suffers a few extra interceptions on home turf.

He is also not afraid of the deep ball and enjoys some success chucking it as well, he had a 54.1 accuracy percentage on balls thrown 20+ yards downfield. He is pristine in the red zone and threw zero interceptions in 70 red zone attempts. Best in the league.

Romo still has Dez Bryant and Miles Austin – one of the best receiving duos in the league. He averaged 16.6 points per game in standard leagues last year even with the emergence of second-year back DeMarco Murray, the Cowboys will still lean on Romo.

The Cowboys personnel improvements on defense could lead to head coach Jason Garrett showing a greater willingness to lean on the passing game, as he won’t have to rely on the Dallas rushing attack to protect the defense as much.

In order for him to reach top 5 status, Garrett needs to call 600 pass attempts in a season. He is likely not going to do this with a bit of an emergence in the running game and Romos sketchy decision making.

His offensive line hasn’t improved much and currently ranks 26th worst in pass protection with the 8th toughest schedule of opposing pass protectors. This season Romo’s SOS is lower half ( top 5 last season) with difficult games coming in clusters W2-4 and W9-13.

Romo could be the best fantasy quarterback for an owner who doesn’t want to spend a first or second round pick on one of the blue chipped quarterbacks. We’d still take Rivers over him this season, though.

Kyle Orton:

Orton is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league, but would be too risky to start if called upon. He’d be a strong QB2 in fantasy, though, so grab him and stash him.

Should Romo become injured, Orton would be a viable replacement in deep and two-quarterback leagues because of the exceptional playmakers at receiver and a pass-heavy offense. However, your league would have to be very deep for that to make him an option on draft day.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger (ADP: 85) Round: 8
Byron Leftwich (ADP: 300+) Round:
Charlie Batch (ADP: 300+) Round:

So Haley plans to allow Big Ben to do the play-calling – with his input, of course – when the Steelers run their no-huddle offense. This is exactly what Roethlisberger has lobbied for, publicly and privately, for quite a while.

Ben enjoys the second easiest schedule for fantasy QBs. We love Ben as a QB2 with upside because of his soft schedule. He faces 8 bottom 10 defenses against fantasy QBs (most of any QB) and has a killer stretch of 5 of them out of 7 opponents mid season. His fantasy playoff schedule also projects to be rather soft.

In his eight-year career, Roethlisberger has thrown for more than 21 touchdowns just twice. He had just four games last season in which he threw for more than one touchdown. Roethlisberger has finished as one of the Top 3 most sacked quarterbacks in three of the last four seasons. The Steelers did address some offensive line needs by drafting linemen with their first two picks in the 2012 draft. These additions grade out the PIT offensive line as the third best pass protecting line heading into 2012 and combine that with the 6th easiest schedule for opposing pass rushers.

There are certainly worse options out there, but Roethlisberger will serve your team best as a backup. He’s just not consistent enough to be rated as a QB1 but the vertical pass prowess is more than enough to make him a high-end QB2.

Byron Leftwich:

Leftwich can be safely ignored. The Steelers would switch to a run-heavy attack, only allowing him to manage the game.

Houston Texans

Matt Schaub (ADP: 98) Round: 9
John Beck (ADP: 300+) Round:
T.J Yates (ADP: 300+) Round:

 
Shaub’s own comment on concerns about coming back from injury leave us confident that he is going to be okay; “I’m a pocket passer”. That pretty much wraps it up. Recovering from a severe, sometimes career-threatening injuryis tough, but he is no Mike Vick.2012 is a crucial year for Schaub because it’s the last season on his deal. Schaub threw for 29 touchdowns in 2009 but regressed back down to 24 touchdowns in 2010. Through Nov. 15 of last season (the last week Matt Schaub played), the Texans had 292 pass attempts, ninth fewest in the league. Thats the trouble with HOU they LOVE to run the ball.

Granted Schaub was one of the first fantasy QBs to get you to 4000 yds, but he has stayed there and been lapped by enough other QBs that he is a low end option now.

He faces the easiest set of free safeties in 2012 and the 6th easiest SOS for fantasy QBs. He finishes very strong with safety matchups and could save you if your QB goes down, he could be a great late season value and that’s what you look for in a backup QB

He has played a full 16-game schedule in only two of his five seasons in Houston. In every other season, Schaub has missed at least five games. Throw in Andre Johnson’s annual injury concerns and Schaub’s risk level moves even higher.

The fantasy quarterback pool is maybe as deep as it has ever been, so any level of injury risk carries more of a draft day penalty than usual. Even with that caveat, Schaub is a slightly risky low-end QB1.

T.J Yates:

Yates performed well for the Texans as a rookie, but he wasn’t much of a fantasy producer.

Oakland Raiders

Carson Palmer (ADP: 130) Round: 11
Terrelle Pryor (ADP: 300+) Round:
Matt Leinart (ADP: 300+) Round:

Those are impressive numbers and they look even better when noting that Palmer placed 11th in the ESPN Total QBR metric. Pro-rate Palmer’s 131 fantasy points in the last nine games the season to a full 16-game schedule and he would have racked up 232 points, a total that would have ranked 10th in the league. And don’t forget those figures were tallied after Palmer joined the team in midseason and had next to zero time to get in synch with his receivers.

Raiders also have the fourth easiest strength of schedule of all QBs. If Carson responds to his new offense he has nothing but easy sailing on the schedule. He has 7 bottom ten (weak defense) matchups – second best of all QBs. He did very well against soft opponents last year (as projected here) and with another year under his belt in OAK, we except excellent value in the 10th round on schedule alone. Only Philip Rivers has a softer schedule.

He will see the weakest schedule of opposing pass rushers of any QB in the NFL in 2012, and a middle of the pack pass protecting offensive line should end up giving him more time than he is used to.

So he seems like a solid QB1, but there are some faults. For one, Palmer was also tied for eighth in interceptions in 2011. Plus, the Raiders are changing to a West Coast offense that may not be suited to take full advantage of Palmer’s vertical pass abilities. Palmer posted ten or fewer points in three of his last six starts, so fantasy point consistency could be an issue.

According to Carson Palmer, new Raiders OC Greg Knapp’s playbook features a lot of play-action and move-the-pocket plays. “I think it’s really going to fit the personnel we have,” said an excited Palmer. “The style of play with the offensive line and the zone running scheme, and the speed we have in the backfield, it’s built for making a read, making one cut, and getting vertical and putting pressure on the defense with our speed and our running backs just heading north.”

If Palmer were running a vertically oriented passing attack, he would be a top ten fantasy QB. As it is, there are enough positives here to rate Palmer as a high-end QB2. We love him as a QB2 in the 10th round, though.

Matt Leinart:

Leinart didn’t accomplish much in Arizona when he had his chance to start, but he’s talented enough to warrant a spot on your watch list.

Washington Redskins

Robert Griffin (ADP: 76) Round: 7
Rex Grossman (ADP: 300+) Round:

He is going to see some of the toughest defenses against fantasy QBs in the first half of the season. bad timing for a rookie QB with a weak offensive line against pass rushers. It a lot of uphill battle. If he is to pull off a Cam Newton season, it will be against formidable personnel.

Cam Newton’s stellar rookie campaign will artificially raise the cost of this year’s top rookie quarterbacks, perhaps none more than Griffin because of his ability to score on the ground. While no quarterback, let alone rookie, is likely to approach Newton’s record-breaking touchdown performance on the ground, Griffin will find the end zone a decent number of times.

Griffin had fantastic metrics in games against BCS conference foes last year. Playing in a Mike Shanahan offense is a great fit for RGIII not only because he is physically suited to run the bootlegs but also because Shanahan is a very aggressive downfield playcaller. Last year the Redskins quarterbacks threw 216 vertical passes, a total that ranked third in the league, and they also threw 74 stretch vertical passes (ranked tied for 10th).

The additions of Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan to the receiving corps could help give Griffin better vertical threats than the Redskins possessed last year.

He’s by far the highest rated rookie for dynasty leagues but for redraft leagues there are just too many questionable elements (and tough quarterback competition) to rate him as a QB1 or a high-end QB2. The risk-reward payoff here is a mid-range QB2.

Rex Grossman:

Rex Grossman was the starter for most of the 2011 season for the Redskins. He took 886 snaps under center, which is close to a full-season of volume. However, his play never merited it. Griffin will start right away. Grossman will be the backup on his one-year deal, and he has little fantasy upside in the event of an injury to Griffin.

Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler (ADP: 93) Round: 8
Jason Campbell (ADP: 300+) Round:
Josh McCown (ADP: 300+) Round:

New Bears QBs coach and de-facto passing game coordinator Jeremy Bates hopes to take advantage of Jay Cutler’s athleticism in 2012. Bates was Cutler’s QBs coach his final year in Denver, where he threw for a career-high 4,526 yards. “We’re going to use his feet,” Bates said. “He’s athletic, he can throw on the run, he can see downfield on the run.” Bates also plans to have Cutler roll out more as opposed to the rigid dropbacks favored by Martz. This may help compensate for their terrible offensive line.

Tice’s promise of “explosiveness” coupled with Bates’ pledge to take better advantage of Jay Cutler’s wheels, should give Cutler a chance to eclipse his pace from 2011. But its that pace that isn’t so impressive. While playing, Cutler averaged less fantasy points per game in 2011 than Colt McCoy, Tavaris Jackson, and Rex Grossman.

They also face a top ten tough schedule against opposing pass rushers. With their offensive line, this doesn’t seem like a formula for getting the ball down field a lot.

You can see the result of that in 2011: Even though they were playing under a heavy passing and downfield target “Martz” offense, Cutler threw only 110 vertical passes in 10 games. Pro-rate that pace over a 16-game schedule and it equals 176 vertical passes, a mark that would have placed 12th among quarterbacks. Cutler has the ability to be a QB1, but he doesn’t throw the ball enough and makes far too many mistakes.

The Bears traded for Brandon Marshall this offseason, teaming Cutler up with his former teammate. While that is obviously a plus for Cutler, Marshall’s companionship does not make Cutler a must-own quarterback. Cutler’s reputation and the Bears’ desire to surround him with talent suggest that he will have a rebound year. But even a rebound year puts him, at best, in QB2 range.

Jason Campbell:

Cutler isn’t quite a fantasy starter, so Campbell wouldn’t be either. Still, he’s one of the game’s best No. 2 quarterbacks and is worth consideration for a bench spot if Cutler goes down.

Jason Campbell would be a middle-of-the-pack NFL quarterback if he were given the chance, but after six years of proving his mediocrity, he likely will not be given that opportunity. He will start the year as a backup for the Chicago Bears. If Cutler were hurt and Campbell became a starter for the majority of the season, 3,600 yards and 20 TDs would be the best-case scenario, and he’d still be outside of the Top 20.

Baltimore Ravens

Joe Flacco (ADP: 140) Round: 12
Tyrod Taylor (ADP: 300+) Round:

Baltimore is thought of as a run-first team, but Flacco’s 560 overall attempts last year ranked 10th among quarterbacks and his 199 vertical targets were seventh highest. The improvements in the receiving corps should move Flacco’s value upwards, but he still has to be viewed as a low end QB2.

UPDATE: Finished August 43-of-60 (71.7 percent) for 433 yards (7.23 YPA), three touchdowns, and the pick. In the new up-tempo offense, we’re beginning to really like Flacco as a value pick QB2 
Tyrod Taylor:

The Ravens seem to like Taylor, so he needs to, at least, be on your radar if called upon to start. Don’t waste a roster spot, though.

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck (ADP: 116) Round: 10
Drew Stanton (ADP: 300+) Round:

The return of Reggie Wayne plus the additions of Dwayne Allen and T.Y. Hilton via the draft could get that part of the Indianapolis aerial attack back to at least a middle of the pack ranking in a hurry. The Colts also drafted Coby Fleener, a college teammate of Luck’s. Assuming he maintains chemistry with Fleener and works well with Wayne, Luck has some decent offensive weapons in Indianapolis for his rookie season.

He won’t be as dynamic of a fantasy player as Cam Newton was as a rookie, but his dynasty league potential is through the roof.

Drew Stanton:

Stanton, a 2007 second-round pick, has posted a 66.9 passer rating in four career starts. Stanton has a history of decent production when called upon, but we aren’t talking about a strong pass offense here.

Cincinnati Bengals

Andy Dalton (ADP: 135) Round: 12
Bruce Gradkowski (ADP: 300+) Round:

Yet, fantasy owners expecting Dalton to make the leap to QB1 status in 2012 will be disappointed. He’s going to be a very good quarterback in the near future, but this season may be a lot like last season – some good games surrounded by some duds. A low-end QB2.

UPDATE: Dalton will likely sit out next week, finishing 17-of-40 (42.5 percent) for 219 yards (5.5 YPA) and one touchdown in three exhibition games

Bruce Gradkowski:

Gradkowski isn’t effective enough to warrant a roster spot.

New York Jets

Tim Tebow (ADP: 177) Round: 15
Mark Sanchez (ADP: 194) Round: 16
Greg McElroy (ADP: 300+) Round:

That’s about a value of a low-end RB2 with TD upside, but not worth wasting a spot in single-QB leagues. If you play in two QB leagues, then he is a great RB/QB second player at that position to couple with your potential 5,000 yard QB starter.

He will, however, be the waiver wire pickup of the year if Mark Sanchez gets hurt or loses his job. In that case, Tebow will make a strong case to start on your squad unless you already have a Top 5 quarterback.

If Tebow did get the starting job at some point, he could replicate last year’s feat of scoring 15 or more fantasy points in seven of his 11 starts.

Tebow may just be the only backup quarterback worth owning as a late-round bet that Sanchez will falter. Despite completing less than 50 percent of his passes last season, he scored plenty of points on the ground, which is why he will be fantasy-relevant if he starts at some point.

UPDATE: Tim Tebow has completed just 9-of-22 passes (40.9 percent) for 96 yards (4.4 YPA) and an interception through two preseason games

Mark Sanchez:

Sanchez quietly finished in the Top 12 fantasy quarterbacks last season. However, Sanchez’s fantasy value took a huge hit when the Jets traded for Tebow and thus reduces Sanchez’s playing time by a third.

Fantasy owners would be taking a huge gamble if they roll out with Sanchez as their starter. Sanchez completed just 56.7 percent of his passes, second to last for quarterbacks who took at least 75 percent of their team’s snaps. Sanchez also had 84 overthrows last season, fourth-most in the NFL. Interceptions also remain a problem for Sanchez and questions still linger about his leadership.

For what it’s worth, Sanchez was one of four quarterbacks with a lower passing grade than Tebow last season, according to Pro Football Focus.com.

Fantasy cons: Sanchez: Fixing the vertical passing game issues would move the leadership questions to the background but they would not solve them. The Jets do tend to respond to fan and media pressure more than most teams and therefore might be more apt to make a change at quarterback if Sanchez were to struggle. Even if Tebow doesn’t take Sanchez’s starting spot, the Jets will likely use a hybrid offense that features both QBs with likely the fewest touches of any QB in the NFL.

Looking at their schedule, there is a patch of three games W6-8 where they could produce in the passing game. The real interesting thing is that the Jets have the single best schedule for fantasy running backs during the fantasy playoffs. So if you consider Tebow a running back, he could blow up on the ground and if given the starting nod by then, he could have some significant late season value.

San Francisco 49ers

Alex Smith (ADP: 157) Round: 14
Josh Johnson (ADP: 300+) Round:
Colin Kaepernick (ADP: 300+) Round:
Scott Tolzien (ADP: 300+) Round:

The receiving corps has been greatly improved this offseason both via free agency (Mario Manningham & Randy Moss) and the draft (A.J. Jenkins). Yet, the truth is, the 49ers are a run first team. They passed the ball just 48.3 percent of the time last season, way below the league average, which severely limited Smith. When Jim Harbaugh was the head coach at Stanford and had maybe the best quarterback in college football in the form of Andrew Luck, his teams still ran the ball more often than they passed it.

He is a very good mid- to low-end QB2 who will be available in a ton of draft rooms as a QB3.

UPDATE: Local beats say the 49ers will NOT throw the ball more this season

Josh Johnson:

The Johnson-Jim Harbaugh reunion was bound to happen. After Harbaugh mentored Johnson to a remarkable 43-to-1 TD:INT ratio as a University of San Diego (Division I-AA) senior, the coach declared him the best quarterback in college football. Johnson will likely back up Alex Smith to start the season, with Colin Kaepernick remaining in the developmental third-string role. Johnson would likely do more damage with his legs than his arm, but he does have some upside as a passer. Keep an eye on him.

Tennessee Titans

Jake Locker (ADP: 211) Round:
Matt Hasselbeck (ADP: 237) Round:
Rusty Smith (ADP: 300+) Round:

In limited duty last season, Jake Locker led all fantasy quarterbacks in points-per-snap (0.5) and was only second in points-per- attempt (0.67) to Aaron Rodgers (0.72). Of course, there is a reason why thresholds are important when analyzing data — Locker’s performance, while impressive, was likely unsustainable over the long haul.

As many points as he put up while in the lineup, he also completed an atrocious 51.5 percent of his passes. He was also 73rd in the league with a 62.3 accuracy percentage. While his averages provide intriguing insight into his potential value as a starter should he take the reins in Tennessee, he will not come without risk.

UPDATE: Locker is moving up our board after being named the week 1 starter and having a decent preseason

Matt Hasselbeck:

Chris Johnson confirmed that the Titans plan to run more of a pass-heavy offense in 2012.
Titans second-year OC Chris Palmer has background in the run-and-shoot, and his scheme will become more fully integrated after Palmer’s first offseason in Nashville. “We were more of a smash-mouth team when I got here,” Johnson said. “Now it is more of a passing offense.” This is good news for fantasy sleeper Jake Locker, who will put up plenty of attempts when he replaces Matt Hasselbeck.

ESPN’s Paul Kuharsky says not to believe that “(Matt) Hasselbeck can’t lose the job.”
Even though the Titans have declared this a true open competition, the general sense among the local media is that it’s Hasselbeck’s gig. But Kuharsky, a former Titans beat writer, has repeatedly said that Locker will have a real chance to beat the veteran out. Either way, it’s going to be hard for coach Mike Munchak to keep Locker’s mobility and cannon arm off the field all season. The second-year man’s performance in August will be worth monitoring closely.

Matt Hasselbeck entered 2011 as the veteran placeholder at quarterback for Tennessee until Jake Locker got his shot. He ended up starting all 16 games and amassing 946 snaps. He was a fantasy-viable quarterback over the first month of the season with 1132 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INTs in four starts. However, once Kenny Britt was on IR, Hasselbeck limped to the finish in 2011, ending as the #22 QB in Pass Rating (-2.3) having just two games with a positive PFF pass rating over the last 12 weeks.

He was QB21 in YPA (6.9) and QB23 in the PFF signature statistic, Accuracy Percentage. Hasselbeck’s advanced metrics of QB23 in deep passing accuracy and QB28 in passing accuracy under pressure can’t inspire confidence to remain the full-time starter in 2012. Given Jake Locker’s efficiency with just 99 snaps in 2011, it is likely that Hasselbeck’s days are numbered as the starter in Tennessee.

Cleveland Browns

Brandon Weeden (ADP: 257) Round:
Colt McCoy (ADP: 300+) Round:
Seneca Wallace (ADP: 300+) Round:
Thaddeus Lewis (ADP: 300+) Round:

We’re expecting Weeden to act as a game manager while Trent Richardson carries the load for the Browns’ offense. Plus the Browns receiving corps of Greg Little, Mohamed Massaquoi and Josh Cribbs aren’t exactly the types of pass catchers who can strike fear in a defense.

Colt McCoy:

Browns president Mike Holmgren indicated that QB Colt McCoy has “no residual effects” from the concussion that knocked him out of the season’s final three games.
In his 21 career games McCoy has thrown 20 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, and averaged 205 yards a game. Put it this way: in just 38 more attempts, Aaron Rodgers threw 31 more touchdown passes than McCoy. His yards per attempt was an abysmal 5.9, second worst among starting quarterbacks. Tthe Browns have shown that they are moving away from McCoy and he should not be on your fantasy roster.

Seneca Wallace:

The Browns addressed their quarterback issues in the draft by selecting Brandon Weeden late in the first round. That does nothing to help Wallace’s fantasy potential and likely damages it unless Colt McCoy is traded.

Buffalo Bills

Ryan Fitzpatrick (ADP: 156) Round: 13
Brad Smith (ADP: 300+) Round:
Tyler Thigpen (ADP: 300+) Round:
Vince Young (ADP: 300+) Round:
Joshua Nesbitt (ADP: 300+) Round:

Coach Chan Gailey concedes that a severe rib injury led to a three-game slump for Fitzpatrick at mid-season in 2011. Fitzpatrick was clipping along with 6-of-7 games over 88.0 in passer rating before a three-game mid-season stretch of 52.0 or lower. This offseason, Gailey revealed that Ryan Fitzpatrick played the final nine games with two cracked ribs.

Prior to that injury, Fitzpatrick averaged 248 passing yards and two touchdowns for 15 fantasy points a game. He also completed 67.7 percent of his passes. After that injury, he completed 58.2 percent of his passes.

Regardless, Fitz needs to learn how to take a sack. He might stay more upright this season with the 6th best graded pass protecting personnel on his offensive line, while facing only the 4th easiest opposing pass rushers in 2012.

Fitzpatrick proved at the beginning of last season what he is capable of accomplishing. The Bills have many of their key players returning, and another year together should push Fitzpatrick to the upper half of fantasy quarterbacks.

Fitzpatrick fell just short of reaching the 600-attempt mark last year.Gailey’s pass-heavy offensive gameplan makes it quite possible Fitzpatrick could reach that mark with room to spare in 2012. He should bounce back with an improved TD:INT ratio in 2012.

Fitzpatrick’s 2011 point total says QB1, but everything about that season says it was a lockout generated anomaly. He’ll likely be valued as a low-end QB2 in most draft rooms.

Saint Louis Rams

Sam Bradford (ADP: 170) Round: 15
Tom Brandstater (ADP: 300+) Round:
Kellen Clemens (ADP: 300+) Round:

Getting into synch with those young wideouts could take a while. The Rams also drafted running back Isaiah Pead and could lean on the 1-2 combination of Jackson and Pead to the detriment of Bradford’s fantasy stats.

Jeff Fisher may not operate a pass-first offense but as long as Bradford stays healthy, he should be able to rack up somewhere in the neighborhood of 500-525 attempts.

Another strike is that he has the 5th toughest schedule of any fantasy QBs. He had one of the best schedules of any QB in 2011, making him one of our sleepers. But even if he gets better and stays healthy, he faces 6 weeks against the top 5 toughest defenses against fantasy QBs

His NFL future is still quite bright and he has some fantasy keeper value but for the 2012 season Bradford is a low-end QB2, maybe high end QB3 with his schedule.

Kellen Clemens:

Clemens hasn’t proven to be very effective and the Rams’ offense is still a work in progress. Stay away. Clemens completed 52.7 percent of his passes at 6.0 yards per for a 73.8 passer rating in a trio of late-season starts. Working in his favor, he played under new OC Brian Schottenheimer with the Jets. If he sticks as the No. 2 quarterback, the Rams will have one of the most worrisome backup situations in the league.

Kansas City Chiefs

Matt Cassel (ADP: 232) Round:
Ricky Stanzi (ADP: 300+) Round:
Brady Quinn (ADP: 300+) Round:

Cassel also has the benefit of a potentially explosive collection of running backs and therefore has one of the best composite sets of talents around him. He does a solid job of managing his risk taking. Very few passers in the league are better situated to have a superb 2012 season, yet he still hasn’t corrected his biggest weakness – vertical passing. His 9.5 vertical YPA ranked 27th in the league. He’s had issues with that dating back to the year he was throwing passes to Randy Moss in his prime. If he doesn’t fix those issues this year when he has a ton of offensive talent around him, it will be time for the Chiefs to throw in the towel on this experiment.

Since joining the Chiefs, he has yet to have a yards-per-attempt average above 6.9, a figure well below the optimal level of production for quarterbacks. Even with an array of explosive weapons in Kansas City, Cassel would be too risky for your fantasy squad even as a backup and that makes Cassel no higher than a low-end QB2.

Seattle Seahawks

Matt Flynn (ADP: 173) Round: 15
Tarvaris Jackson (ADP: 300+) Round:
Josh Portis (ADP: 300+) Round:
Russell Wilson (ADP: 300+) Round:

Truth be told, the best thing to do would be to avoid this until at least one of these passers puts some distance between himself and the others. Its not that promising of starter anyway, Seattle has the 10th worst line against pass rush and faces the 5th toughest schedule against opposing pass rushers.

Russell Wilson:

Russell Wilson is something like Flynn in that when he was surrounded with a nearly perfect situation at Wisconsin and posted great numbers but when he had a less than ideal situation at North Carolina State, his numbers were nowhere near as good.

He set an NCAA record for passer efficiency rating last year and was only a few plays away from guiding the Wisconsin Badgers to an unbeaten season. The talented receiving corps could be a plus for all three prospects if it plays to its talent level.

Although Russell is a legit play-maker with impressive pocket presence, smarts, the ability to throw accurately on the run, and a top-to-bottom release that helps his height deficiency, there’s only one Doug Flutie. At just under 5’11″, the odds are against the 2011 Big Ten Player of the Year carving out a career that will transcend that of career backup Seneca Wallace.

UPDATE: Sources claim Wilson could win the starting job with a strong week 3 preseason performance

Tarvaris Jackson:

Jackson started most of the team’s 2011 games, but he’s not good enough to warrant anything more than back-end QB2 consideration. It looked in many ways like last year was his performance ceiling and that factor seemed to drive Seattle to acquire Flynn and Wilson. It will take a turnaround by Jackson or a drop-off by Flynn and Wilson in order for Jackson to get the starting job back, so he may be the least likely to win this spot.

Miami Dolphins

Matt Moore (ADP: 252) Round:
Pat Devlin (ADP: 300+) Round:
David Garrard (ADP: 300+) Round:
Ryan Tannehill (ADP: 300+) Round:

A converted wide receiver, Tannehill draws comparisons to Jake Locker for his athleticism and accuracy outside the pocket. Tannehill’s play-action and bootleg skills also complement the Dolphins’ West Coast scheme. With just 19 college starts under his belt and tendency to lock onto his primary target, Tannehill will need a year or two to develop into a viable NFL starter.

UPDATE: Named the starter

Matt Moore:Dolphins owner Stephen Ross told NFL Network that he expects Matt Moore to be the team’s Week 1 starter. Moore, who opened camp as the Dolphins’ first-team quarterback, took issue with offseason reports that David Garrard was beating him out.
Garrard was pumped up relentlessly in the spring by the South Florida media, but Moore got the nod on the first day of camp. “If there’s already a depth chart, I don’t know about it,” Moore said. Then there was a depth chart and it showed David Garrard as the starter for the first preseason game.

Moore’s solid second half of the season performance last year evidently did not convince the Dolphins fans, front office, coaches or ownership that it was the real deal, as every one of those groups seemed to be on board with a quarterback change. Moore has also never shown that he has the requisite durability to start a full 16-game season. Moore will probably start the 2012 season as the Dolphins quarterback, but the odds are good he won’t be under center for 16 games. That makes him a high-end QB3.

You want more details, watch Hard Knocks.

Also consider that Miami lost Brandon Marshall to free agency and may now have the worst wide receiver/tight end corps in the NFL.

David Garrard:

Garrard is a bit of a mystery after missing all of 2011, but he was always quietly effective as a fantasy quarterback thanks to his running ability. He’s worth bench consideration. You can also roster Ryan Tannehill in case Garrard is finished.

Time will tell if a year off after back surgery has atrophied Garrard’s skills as a quarterback. It is difficult to foresee any playing time for Garrard with rookie Ryan Tannehill in the fold. Garrard was told he would have an opportunity to compete for the starting gig, but the likelihood Miami will put him in over Tannehill is slim. Even if Garrard is back to form, he is 34 years old and has never been particularly productive from a fantasy standpoint.

UPDATE: The Miami Herald expects the Dolphins to keep Matt Moore over David Garrard

Jacksonville Jaguars

Blaine Gabbert (ADP: 244) Round:
Chad Henne (ADP: 300+) Round:

Gabbert has too many things that he needs to improve upon before he can even begin to be thought of as a reliable fantasy quarterback.

Too bad he sucks, too. The Jaguars could have the most improved receiving corps in the NFL with the additions of Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson

He also has one of the easiest schedules of any fantasy QB this season. So at least he won’t be fed to the wolves. But cunning fantasy owners know that this could mean sleeper potential for Chad Henne. After two tougher matchups, 5 of 8 matchips to follow are some of the easiest defenses against fantasy QBs. So imagine this, Gabbert falters early after two tough weeks and a week two slaughtering my HOU’s secondary and then in comes Henne to chew up IND, CIN, OAK GB and INd again. Not bad. Especially since bioth NE and MIA are waiting in the fantasy playoffs.

Gabbert may not be as horrible as he looked at times last year, but it is going to take more than upgrades at wide receiver to solve his problems. He is a low-end QB3 because of pass volume and may even be a bit of a fantasy risk at that level.

UPDATE: Has early connection with Justin Blackmon

Chad Henne:

Henne is a decent backup quarterback, so you have to keep an eye on him, but the Jaguars’ run-heavy approach and overall ineffectiveness won’t lead him to many fantasy points.

According to SI.com’s Don Banks, there are members of the Jaguars organization who believe Chad Henne will beat out Blaine Gabbert by late August. It’s no surprise that Henne has backers in the front office. The Jags wouldn’t have signed him if they didn’t believe he could turn his career around. It’s telling, though, that the same Henne supporters believed he would have beaten out both Gabbert and Tim Tebow had the Jags traded for the latter. While the official party line is that there is no competition this summer, Gabbert isn’t going to have a long leash if he doesn’t show significant improvement from his rookie season

Arizona Cardinals

Kevin Kolb (ADP: 275) Round:
Richard Bartel (ADP: 300+) Round:
John Skelton (ADP: 300+) Round:

That may be difficult. Arizona is projected at the 32nd ranked pass blocking offensive line in the NFL for 2012 and they face the second toughest schedule of opposing pass rushers. Recipe for disaster for whomever gets the job. Throw that in with the fourth toughest schedule of all fantasy QBs and you should expect little to nothing.

John Skelton:

Rumors say the Cardinals players are “gravitating toward [John] Skelton a little bit more.”
McGinest is now an analyst at NFL Network and some of his “buddies” in Arizona prefer Skelton over Kevin Kolb. If he starts, he would also get the value of throwing to Fitz. We’ve seen Skelton in action and, although he’ll have a few decent games, he’s not worth rostering. If Skelton does win the job and starts to play badly, the Cardinals could switch back to Kolb.

UPDATE: This situation is getting worse….we might consider this the worst QB fantasy situation in the NFL if not for Fitz

Minnesota Vikings

Christian Ponder (ADP: 258) Round:
Joe Webb (ADP: 300+) Round:
Sage Rosenfels (ADP: 300+) Round:

The additions of wide receivers Jerome Simpson and Jarius Wright and tight end John Carlson could help. Percy Harvin notes that Ponder has “gotten head over heels better than last year. It’s night and day and it’s part of the process, which is a good thing,” explains OC Bill Musgrave, adding that Ponder has made market improvement in checks and audibles at the line of scrimmage

But what we cannot overlook is that the Vikings have the WORST schedule for any fantasy QB in 2012.

Thrown in some in some injury concerns and we cannot imagine any situation where you would want to lookat Ponder as a fantasy option.

Joe Webb:

Webb won’t do much through the air, but he will put up the points with his legs. He’s worth a look if you need a QB3, but he’s never worth starting.