Atlanta Falcons

Julio Jones (ADP: 25) Round: 3
Roddy White (ADP: 26) Round: 3
Harry Douglas (ADP: 249) Round:
Kerry Meier (ADP: 300+) Round:

If you wanted to get nit- picky, White’s drop rate rose for the second straight season, resulting in him leading the league in drops last season.

But this is more a problem that comes about by being the most heavily targeted receiver in the league. In fact, despite the addition of Julio Jones, White’s targets continued to rise, as it’s done each of the last three seasons. There’s no reason to expect anything less than him being a league leader in targets, receptions, and yards again this year.

For all the reasons that we like Julio, we have to like Roddy. But with the offense changing around him, you can expect targets and red zone targets to evne out in 2012, tippign the advantage to Julio at his current ADP. Both may go in the same round, but we would rather have the long ball hitter in Julio.

Roddy faces 6 red corners this season while julio faces only 4 and Roddy gets Chris Gamble and Jabari Greer twice. Roddy has a stretch of 5 out of 7 games to end the fantasy season against red matchups, expect that Julio will be pulling away by then.

Julio Jones:

Yep. he is our “must own” fantasy player of the 2012 draft.

Why do we love him? Let me count the ways.

He led the NFL in Yards After Catch in 2011 as a rookie. Now Atlanta has prepared to pass EVEN MORE in 2012.

He enjoys the easiest schedule in the NFL for fantasy WRs. His most difficult matchups come in the first half of the season, but he will reward owners after his BYE when he faces 5 out of 7 matchups against bottom 10 defenses against WRs. Just when you need him most, in the playoff push and unto the playoffs.

He has a top 20 set of individual CB matchups which make him a WR triple crown. Expected high usage in a heavy passing offense, excellent schedule and great matchups. His only concern is helth.

Jones was a poster boy for regression in 2011, failing to score his first NFL touchdown until Week 9 before going on to finding paydirt eight times in his last nine games. In the 14 games Jones appeared in, he saw 20 percent of Atlanta’s targets and reached double-digits three times. He plays almost exclusively on the outside, but three of his seven targets from the slot resulted in a touchdown.

Appearing on SportsCenter Wednesday, ESPN’s Jerry Rice nominated Julio Jones as the NFL’s biggest breakout wide receiver for 2012. “I love this kid,” said Rice. “He’s awesome. He’s big, he’s fast. … I think he’s gonna have a breakout season this coming year.” Former longtime NFL personnel man Bryan Broaddus is on board, as well. “Did a bunch of work on ATL and he really looks special,” Broaddus wrote.

Jones “routinely put on a catching clinic” in practice sessions, continuing to impress teammates and coaches. Upon interviewing Dirk Koetter in January, the Falcons brass was convinced the new coordinator would take advantage of Jones’ dangerous vertical and run-after-catch skills.

Fantasy owners will not forget about Jones’ six touchdown outburst over the final four games of the regular season, so adjust your rankings accordingly.

Worried about Roddy? Wehe shouldn’t be ignored since he has all the same opportunities as Julio. But you cna get Julio AND a RB2 in the same draft by simply skipping over Roddy at his current 25 ADP. not a bad value move.

Something else to think about:

in 2011 Roddy had 29 red zone target s Gonzales had 10 and Julio only 9.

With some expected regression from both Roddy and Gonzo, you could expect Julio’s Red zone usage ro rise . Even if it rises a little bit, this makes him an elite player in red zone and long pass play opportities. With his freakish physical talent, this would mek him worth a grab even in the SECOND ROUND.

Then Jones racked up 109 yards and a touchdown on six receptions in the first quarter of the Falcons’ preseason opener. SO basically, if you want him, grab him with your second pick…and we say he is worth the reach. Buy into the hype

Harry Douglas:

The Falcons have implemented a three-wide set as the primary formation in their offense this season. New coordinator Dirk Koetter is calling for his “11″ personnel often. It features a now-healthy Harry Douglas in the slot, one back, one tight end and no fullback. Simply put, it’s another step in the Falcons’ transition toward a pass-first, aggressive offense and away from Michael Turner as a focal point. Rotoworld’s Mike Clay points out that Atlanta with a three-wide set on 51 percent of its snaps last season (13th highest).

If White or Jones go down, Douglas will move into the starting lineup. He warrants an add in all leagues, but he’s a risky start, as Matt Ryan would lean heavier on the healthy starter and Tony Gonzalez.

New York Giants

Victor Cruz (ADP: 30) Round: 3
Hakeem Nicks (ADP: 34) Round: 3
Reuben Randle (ADP: 191) Round: 16
Domenik Hixon (ADP: 300+) Round:
Ramses Barden (ADP: 300+) Round:
Jerrel Jernigan (ADP: 300+) Round:

On a per-game basis, Nicks saw just under 30 percent of the Giants’ targets in 2010, but that figure fell to 25 percent in 2011 thanks to the emergence of Cruz. Still, Nicks saw seven-plus targets in 14 of the 19 games he appeared in during the 2011 season. He’s still an elite option despite the foot injury.Nicks missed the New England game in Week 9 of 2011, and still had a career high in games played (15). Nicks’ touchdown totals dropped to 7 from 11 in 2010, but his yards per reception increased by over 2 yards. His targets per game also dipped from 9.7 to 8.8.

Nicks was still the sixth most targeted wide receiver in the league. While Cruz operated from the slot last year, Nicks played exclusively on the outside and shared basically equal time on the left (50%) as on the right (45%).

With the Giants shifting their focus to the passing game, Nicks is primed to continue his fantasy dominance. The broken foot he suffered in May should be healed just in time for Week 1. He should be on your on radar in the third round.

The injuries may keep him from being a top-end WR1 but his penchant for fighting through them and posting dominant numbers combine to make him a mid-range WR1.

UPDATE: Nicks back at practice and on track for week one

Victor Cruz:Victor Cruz rewrote the team record books to the tune of 1,536 receiving yards in the regular season. As a rookie he scored 3 touchdowns in a Jets preseason game. But then Cruz saw just 4 snaps in three games during the regular season. It wasn’t worth fantasy owners drafting him going into the 2011 season. He appeared in 20 games during one season. Despite not playing much the first two weeks, he saw 22 percent of Manning’s targets on the year – an average of 7.6 per game.

If you were lucky enough to land Cruz off waivers, you probably made it to the playoffs. Even with rookie Rueben Randle in the fold, Cruz will again be the primary slot option for Eli Manning this year.

Cruz plays from the slot quite often, as shown by the fact that 115 of his 151 targets (76 percent) and eight of his 10 touchdowns (80 percent) last season came while lined up inside. It’s important for Cruz’s fantasy value as well because Eli Manning has heavily targeted his slot receiver going back to Steve Smith.

Cruz achieved 11.6 yards per target in 2011, 4th in NFL. He had only one less target than Nicks did in 2011.

The Giants have a top ten easiest schedule for fantasy WRs, but Cruz gets the short straw out of this crew. He faces a league lading 9 red matchups this season including two in the fantasy postseason. Nicks only faces four and he has two green matchups to boot, Cuz has two of his own but little breathing room.

Last season Cruz only faced two red matchups last season and averaged 13 fantays points against them, while averaging over 20 fantasy points a game against green corners.

We like Nicks as the value Giants WR to pick out of these two.

The 9 red matchups tell us he is bound for a regression. Only a second year starter and will face Brandon Carr, Carlos Rodgers, Nate Clements, Charles Woodson, Brent Grimes. Its like some video game where you throw the best corner against him to try to beat him down all year. Expect a lot less than what we saw last year.

If Cruz is in the slot, that leaves Ramses Barden with an advantage over Jerrel Jernigan for the No. 3 role.

Reuben Randle:

ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reports that the Giants have been thrilled with second-round pick Rueben Randle. “(The Giants) thought he was the most NFL-ready receiver in the draft. What they’ve seen so far has justified that,” Mort said on ESPN 32. With Nicks nursing a fractured foot, Randle was fast-tracked with first-team reps during training camp. Even if Nicks makes it back for Week 1, Randle should open the season no worse than the Giants’ No. 3 receiver.

Randle should be considered the overwhelming favorite to open the year as the No. 3 receiver in an offense that averaged 308.3 passing yards per game last season. In 2011, Mario Manningham averaged 6.4 targets per game for New York, but he departed to San Francisco during the off-season. Randle figures to get most of those looks in the year ahead.

Randle looks like the early favorite to replace Mario Manningham in three-receiver sets. He and Nicks would be the outside wideouts with Cruz in the slot. He is arguably the 3rd most talented receiver on the team, so it is his spot to lose.

Yet, Eli Manning suggested that the Giants could use a committee at No. 3 receiver. It wouldn’t shock, the Giants used three-wide or more sets on just 46 percent of their offensive snaps last season, 21st in the league. Domenik Hixon, Rueben Randle and Jerrel Jernigan are all vying for the No. 3 job this year. “Well, I think some guys do some things better than others,” Manning said. “So, I think, depending on the route, on the concepts, on where you want to put that player. Whether that receiver is going to be playing inside or outside, you can decide who’s going to be in that situation.”

New Orleans Saints

Marques Colston (ADP: 43) Round: 4
Lance Moore (ADP: 117) Round: 10
Nick Toon (ADP: 239) Round:
Devery Henderson (ADP: 261) Round:
Adrian Arrington (ADP: 300+) Round:
Joe Morgan (ADP: 300+) Round:
Courtney Roby (ADP: 300+) Round:

He led the Saints WRs with 105 targets and 40% of the team targets but Sproles beat him out with 107 and Graham had 146. He didn’t have a single game with more than 8 catches in 2011.Colston is almost like a tight end playing wide receiver. He has the size (6-4, 225 pounds) to push cornerbacks around but still has the speed to rack up at least 50 vertical targets. Colston tallied 106 targets last year despite missing two games due to injury indicates he has 120-130 caliber target potential.

With a new five-year deal signed this offseason Colston is ready to maintain his status at the top wide receiver on the depth chart and likely second option in the passing game behind TE Jimmy Graham.The Saints have a tons of upside with a 3rd easiest schedule for fantasy WRs, but Colston’s lone 2 green matchups come early in the season. making him more of a draft and trade candidate than a draft and hold. We actually see the Saints soft WR schedule as a plus for BREES, rather than any of the WRs.

He’s too hit/miss for a true WR1, as he tallied six or fewer fantasy points in six contests last year. The durability issues and hit/miss scoring nature do drop him out of WR1 contention but the incredibly strong metrics and target volume keep him rated as a high-end WR2.

Lance Moore:

Lance Moore has long been a highly efficient receiver in New Orleans and 2011 was another successful season in that regard. He was second in Saints targets for WRs but that means he was 5th in targets overall on the team. Given the departure of Robert Meachem in free agency, there are targets to be had in New Orleans in 2012 and Moore remains one of Drew Brees’ favorite receivers.

We actually like Moore as a sneaky add in the 9th because of the Saints great SOS and his team leading 5 green corner matchups in 2012. Take him late!

Nick Toon:

Toon missed the Hall of Fame Game and the second exhibition due to a recurring foot injury. He’s making no headway in his fight for snaps. Saints interim coach Joe Vitt does anticipate Toon returning “sooner than later.” Toon will have missed three preseason games and a large chunk of training camp, diminishing his chances at securing the Saints’ fourth receiver job. It’s important to remember that Toon’s foot has been a problem since his senior season at Wisconsin. We’re not optimistic about rookie-year fantasy impact.

Devery Henderson:

After two games last year, it looked like Devery Henderson finally turned the corner in his career at age 29. Henderson had 9 receptions for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns at that point. In his remaining 14 games, he totaled 23 receptions for 300 yards and no touchdowns. Although Henderson often starts and logs significant minutes for the Saints – he is no better than the fifth option in the passing game.

Plus Henderson has 7 red corner matchups and 5 of them in the last 7 games. Worst of all pass catchers on the Saints. Trying to predict the week that he scores a long touchdown can be maddening. Look elsewhere late in your drafts for a sleeper option in a high-powered offense.

Philadelphia Eagles

Jeremy Maclin (ADP: 56) Round: 5
DeSean Jackson (ADP: 63) Round: 6
Jason Avant (ADP: 288) Round:
Riley Cooper (ADP: 300+) Round:
Chad Hall (ADP: 300+) Round:
Ronald Johnson (ADP: 300+) Round:
Marvin McNutt (ADP: 342) Round:

He has yet to top 1,000 receiving yards in this three-year career, but does have a 10-touchdown season under this belt and appears primed for a breakout.The Eagles have a top 5 fantasy playoff schedule and a top 7 regular season schedule. Of the two WRs, Maclin sees 4 red matchups, which is half of what Desean will see.

Maclin’s targets per game have steadily been on the rise from 6.1 in 2009 to 7.2 last year. All injuries aside, Jackson had only one more target than Maclin, yet Maclin had over 100 fewer snaps all season.One Eagles coach “didn’t hesitate” to nominate Maclin when the Inquirer asked for a player who will make his first Pro Bowl this season.

Although Maclin strained his hamstring in warmups ahead of the preseason opener, he’s good to go, and that’s good to know. Maclin caught a ten-yard touchdown in Sunday’s practice during red-zone drills.

Make Maclin a guy you trade for. Here is why:
Philly gets all 4 of their tough secondaries within the first 5 weeks of the year! So expect some low production and trade for him just before his week 7 BYE from an owner expecting more. Then you can enjoy a second half of the season with 4 projected bottom ten secondaries and two of them in the fantasy playoffs. BIG upside and a mid season trade steal.

Or just draft him. Consider him the WR2 to own with low-end WR1 potential. Maclin is the ideal target in the late third round of your fantasy draft even though current ADP is the middle of round five.

DeSean Jackson:

DeSean Jackson finally got his wish this offseason – he was paid a lot of money to stay in Philadelphia with a five-year contract extension. Lets not forget what an imature child he was about it last season, though. That potential for a meltdown is always going to be there.

Fantasy owners will need to watch Jackson’s performance closely. His PPR fantasy points per game have declined for two straight years, from 16.7 to 14.5 to 12.1 in 2011. His targets have dipped recently too, but that also coincides with the emergence of Maclin and LeSean McCoy in the passing game.

Jackson also failed to find the end zone on a rushing attempt, after scoring a touchdown on the ground the last three years. He managed just two red-zone catches in all of 2011.

He has 8 red corner matchups so you shouldn’t expect anything short of more regression.

According to STATS.com, Jackson had nine overall drops (13%), leading the Eagles’ top three wide receivers from a year ago (Maclin 6% and Avant 2%). Jackson dropped four balls that were 20+ yards downfield. To be exact, they were 40, 25, 43 and 50 yards downfield. Even if you take away YAC and assume Jackson would have been tackled right away, adding in those four catches would have made his 2011 numbers look like this: 62 catches, 1,119 yards and 18.0 YPR.

What’s the point? For starters, Jackson is still getting open. He’s still beating defensive backs. And the Eagles are still designing plays to get him the ball and hit on big plays. Something as simple as catching the football in 2012 will likely determine whether he has an OK year or an outstanding year.

It should be noted that Jackson has had issues with drops for most of his career, so until he proves that they’re not an issue, it’s fair to be skeptical.

Jason Avant:

Jason Avant finished just outside the Top 50 wide receivers in PPR leagues and had the best fantasy season of his career in 2011. The Eagles’ slot receiver quietly caught 52 passes for 679 yards, but only scored one touchdown.

He did pad those stats in garbage time in losses to the Bills (9 receptions for 139 yards) and Patriots (8 receptions for 110 yards with a touchdown).

With Jackson fresh off signing his new five-year contract extension and Maclin locked down as the outside receivers, Avant appears headed to the same role in 2012. You could do worse for a reserve wide receiver in deeper leagues, but you certainly could do a lot better also. He does have 4 green matchups when on the field this season.

Riley Cooper:

WR Riley Cooper has been diagnosed with a fractured left collarbone. Cooper went down trying to reel in a deep bomb from Michael Vick. The Eagles have yet to release a timeline, but Cooper should be considered doubtful for Week 1. It’s an ill-timed injury for a player who was thought to be locked in as the Eagles’ No. 4 receiver, but highly unimpressive on offense last season. Despite Cooper’s edge in blocking and special teams play, his injury opens the window for sixth-round rookie Marvin McNutt to make a run at his job.

Dallas Cowboys

Dez Bryant (ADP: 42) Round: 4
Miles Austin (ADP: 46) Round: 4
Kevin Ogletree (ADP: 300+) Round:
Raymond Radway (ADP: 300+) Round:
Andre Holmes (ADP: 300+) Round:
Dwayne Harris (ADP: 300+) Round:
Danny Coale (ADP: 333) Round:

While his teammate Miles Austin saw more time in the slot, Bryant was almost exclusively used at split end. Jerry Jones concedes that Bryant must improve his route running to gain Tony Romo’s trust.

In 2011, Dez led all WRs in targets (mainly due to Austin’s injury), but he still trailed Witten (114). In addition to being the downfield option for Dallas, he’s one of the most dangerous red zone threats in the league – he has 9 career touchdowns on just 21 red zone targets.

Bryant’s early-season quadriceps injury caused him to miss one game and disappear for long stretches of others. After working with strength and conditioning coach Mike Woicik this offseason, Bryant feels “stronger than ever” and more explosive coming out of his breaks.

ESPN Dallas’ Todd Archer believes there’s a “decent chance” Dez Bryant will face a one-game suspension for his domestic violence arrest.

Also, Bryant was a consistent option week to week – he almost topped 1,000 receiving yards in 15 games despite never having more than 90 in any week. Now that Robinson has left for Jacksonville, Bryant could be in line for an additional 1-2 targets each week that could lead to an even better finish in 2012. We expect double-digit touchdowns with Tony Romo’s red-zone security blanket, Robinson, out of the picture.

UPDATE: Local beats predict Dez will play week one

Miles Austin:

Two separate stints of missing three games in a row due to hamstring problems caused Miles Austin to disappoint fantasy owners in 2011. Miles Austin confirmed that the hamstrings in both of his legs are now back to 100 percent. “It feels good,” Austin said. “Absolutely not an issue.”

Jerry Jones indicated that the injuries were entirely to blame for Austin’s decline in production last season. Neither Jones nor Austin is worried that the hamstrings will be a recurring problem going forward.

Austin got off to a fast start through two games with 14 receptions (on 24 targets) for 233 yards and 4 touchdowns before the hamstring problems struck him down.

His fantasy numbers were down 88 points from 2010, but his 7.2 targets per game were the same as 2010. Austin will be a nice value draft pick this year.

The Cowboys used three-plus receiver sets on 42 percent of their plays, with Austin as the primary slot receiver.Miles Austin lined up in the slot on 44 percent of his snaps last season. Slot candidates such as Cole Beasley, Dwayne Harris and Danny Coale have failed to separate from the competition this summer, leaving Austin as the favorite to assume the duties again. It’s good news for Andre Holmes, who is strictly an outside receiver

Even though Dallas has a top 9 strength of schedule in 2012 and a top ten easy SOS to end the season., Austin has 9 red corner matchups this season with three in the fantasy playoffs.

That makes Miles the DAL WR to pass on this season. We suggest aking Dez over Miles.

UPDATE: More hamstring issues for Austin in the preseason but no setbacks

Kevin Ogletree:

Receivers coach Jimmy Robinson said Kevin Ogletree has a slight lead in the No. 3 WR battle. Ogletree is also running as the No. 2 receiver while Miles Austin (hamstring) sits out. Now in his fourth season with the Cowboys, the former undrafted free agent out of Virginia is taking advantage of his experience edge. Still, the competition will be decided in preseason games.

Carolina Panthers

Steve Smith (ADP: 41) Round: 4
Brandon LaFell (ADP: 198) Round: 16
Joe Adams (ADP: 289) Round:
Louis Murphy (ADP: 300+) Round:
David Gettis (ADP: 300+) Round:
Kealoha Pilares (ADP: 300+) Round:
Armanti Edwards (ADP: 300+) Round:
Seyi Ajirotutu (ADP: 300+) Round:
Darvin Adams (ADP: 300+) Round:

He will start off fast with three straight weeks of soft secondaries with Lafell seeing 6 straight red corners leaves Smith the obvious target in those games.

Cam Newton provided Steve Smith with a renaissance season for the Panthers in 2011, and there is no reason he cannot have a repeat performance in 2012. Smith was the top WR in CAR last season too as he had almost 40 more targets than the next nearest Panther pass catcher.Smith had the fifth-highest yards/reception average in the NFL with a minimum of 100 targets. He also reeled in 79 catches, 10th-most of wide receivers.He is a rare combination of big-play ability with volume safety, and that makes him a likely Top 10 receiver in drafts. Smith has No. 1 wide receiver upside if Newton takes a step forward as a passer.

We love him as a low-end WR1 and a steal in the early 4th but worth a late 3rd round take, especially if you can afford him as your second WR.

UPDATE: Smith is on crutches nursing his foot infection

Brandon LaFell:

Brandon LaFell has not lived up to expectations thus far. He struggled to find playing time as a rookie over David Gettis, and last year had a difficultly earning more playing time than Legedu Naanee.

LaFell finally earned a starting spot in Week 12 and started for the remainder of the year. The highlight of his season was the 91-yard touchdown catch he had in Week 16. He finished with 10.9 yards per target in 2011, 5th in NFL. LaFell offers promise as a downfield threat going forward

NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah observes that Cam Newton is “developing very good chemistry” with third-year LaFell. Jeremiah noted that LaFell is more fluid as a route runner this year while “attacking the ball in the air.” LaFell was listed as the starter opposite Steve Smith on the Panthers’ initial depth chart. Even ESPN’s Adam Schefter says the Panthers “really like” LaFell and believe he’s “poised for a breakout.”

As an every-down receiver in OC Rob Chudzinski’s aggressive system, there’s a ton of breakout appeal in LaFell.

UPDATE: AMBIEN ALERT LaFell is having a great camp and coaches are allegedly giving him a “bigger role”

Oakland Raiders

Denarius Moore (ADP: 94) Round: 8
Darrius Heyward-Bey (ADP: 108) Round: 9
Jacoby Ford (ADP: 221) Round:
Juron Criner (ADP: 283) Round:

Keep in mind Moore essentially had no offseason in 2011 due to the lockout. He exploded immediately onto the scene in training camp, however, and finished the regular season as the Raiders’ leader in receiving touchdowns (five) and yards-per-catch average (18.7).

The Contra Costa Times’ Steve Corkran views Moore as the Raiders’ No. 1 receiver this season. 

It’s a bit of a surprise in that Darrius Heyward-Bey led the team in receptions (64) and yards (975) last season while finishing as a top-10 fantasy receiver over the final five weeks. Carson Palmer has absolutely gushed about Moore’s talent this offseason, however, and it’s clear that the two are on the same page. Corkran expects a “sharp” Palmer to have a “huge season” in 2012.

Moore completely disappeared last year when he was covered by a red or yellow- rated cornerback. That could be a huge problem with a 2012 cornerback schedule that includes 13 red/yellow-rated cornerbacks. Moore also fell well short of acceptable metric totals at the short and medium route depth levels and that doesn’t bode well for his ability to quickly integrate into Oakland’s new West Coast passing scheme.

Moore also racked up 50 vertical targets, a number that placed him in a tie for 28th place with three other wideouts. The other three? Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings and Julio Jones, all of whom are strong WR1 candidates.

According to Pro Football Focus, no NFL player was targeted deeper downfield than Denarius Moore in 2011. Pro Football Focus charts the depth of each NFL pass target. The result is “average depth of target” or “aDOT” for short. In 2011, Moore’s normalized aDOT (removes the impact of the quarterback) was 18.7, which paced the entire NFL. The explosive Moore will continue to be utilized as a deep threat as the team’s projected starting flanker in 2012.

But again, that was last year’s scheme and west coast doesn’t mean long ball. He could be the best vertical threat on the Raiders but unless he develops his game to the next level, Moore could also find his overall opportunities limited. That risk caps his fantasy draft day value to a mid- to late-end WR3.

UPDATE: Moore and Ford still could be ready by week 1

Darrius Heyward-Bey:

After two years of being the poster child for Al Davis’ obsession with speed over production, Heyward-Bey took a huge step over the second half of 2011. Although it was slightly obscured by the run-heavy nature of the Raiders’ offense, Heyward- Bey’s 2.26 yards per route was 11th best in the NFL. Nobody played better down the stretch. The deep threat caught less than 40% of his passes in his first two years combined but rebounded to 60.4% last season.

The Contra Costa Times’ Steve Corkran doesn’t expect Darrius Heyward-Bey to be a starter in 2012. We find that odd since he led the Raiders in targets with 106, Danarius Moore was next closest with only 73.

The Raiders’ receiver corps struggled mightily with injuries in 2011, but such a move would be surprising for a team with many other needs. It would ultimately be an upset if Moore, Heyward-Bey and Jacoby Ford aren’t the Raiders’ top three wideouts in 2012.

New Raiders coach Dennis Allen says the team isn’t going to “rush to judgment” on Darrius Heyward-Bey’s April DUI arrest. DHB may face league discipline, but with this being his first brush with the law, he’s unlikely to draw a suspension.

The Raiders do not have a bad or goo dschedule. DHB has 7 red matchups and will have less opportunities in the long passing game. If he falsl to the 10th round, give him a try. Otherwise leave him to the Raider fans in your league.

Jacoby Ford:

Jacoby Ford suffered a foot injury in the Raiders second preseason game and was spotted on crutches in the locker room afterward. Keep in mind Ford missed a bunch of time with a foot injury last year. The Raiders’ slot receiver turned in an error-prone preseason opener and followed it up with a potentially serious injury in the second exhibition contest. We should have an update on the extent of Ford’s ailment early this week.

According to Pro Football Focus, Jacoby Ford played just 38.8 percent of offensive snaps when he was healthy and in the lineup last season.
It was clear in 2011 that when healthy, Ford was third fantasy option behind Heyward-Bey and Moore. Expect Ford to remain the No. 3/slot receiver, gadget player, and explosive return specialist in 2012…if he plays.

Detroit Lions

Calvin Johnson (ADP: 5) Round: 1
Titus Young (ADP: 115) Round: 10
Nate Burleson (ADP: 207) Round:
Jarett Dillard (ADP: 300+) Round:
Maurice Stovall (ADP: 300+) Round:
Dominique Curry (ADP: 300+) Round:
Ryan Broyles (ADP: 300+) Round:

Johnson had 6 weeks where he scored multiple TDs,Johnson was targeted fewer than eight times in just six of 17 games during the 2011 season. “Megatron” has been responsible for 22-plus percent of the Lion’s targets each of the last four years and 41-plus percent of the receiving touchdowns three of the last four seasons.

If Young or Broyles are able to upgrade the other side of the receiving corps, it will be even harder for defenses to stop Johnson. This is way he is going in the first round of all drafts.You cannot agrue his raw talent and his role in one of the highest passing offenses in the league. But you pay for that. With an ADP of 5 overall, you need to have all variables line up toward success. The problem with Calvin (and the rest of the NFC North passing game players) is a very tough schedule through the air. He actually has the 3rd toughest fantasy WR schedule in the NFL. He also is bottom 10 in individual CB matchups. Granted he is not coverable, but NFL defenses will be giving him their best this season, making him valued just below his current ADP.His two best matchups come in weeks 13 and 14 but 15 and 16 are two of the tougher ones.

To put it in perspective, he will face Carlos Rodgers, Tim Jennings, Richard Sherman, Woodson and Brent Grimes….a selction of top ten corners in the NFL.

If Johnson takes even a partial step backwards production-wise, the difference between his fantasy value and the value of the next best wideouts may not be enough to justify the additional draft day cost Johnson’s 2011 season is bound to command. Johnson is a very good matchup-buster wideout but even he could be somewhat impacted by seven red-rated cornerback matchups.
Bottom line: He is hands down the best wide receiver in this year’s fantasy draft and is worthy of a first-round selection.

Trust us, he is stil the best WR value in the league and we are digging deep for things wrong with Megatron, but we will skip him in the first.

Titus Young:

Drafted to provide a vertical presence opposite Calvin Johnson, Young’s debut season was mildly disappointing when you consider he saw 80 targets and 486 routes. Among fantasy-relevant rookies, only Greg Little averaged fewer yards per route than Young’s 1.25, and no one in that peer group was targeted on a smaller percentage of their snaps.

According to MLive.com, Lions WR Titus Young has been “almost impossible to stop during practices.” That’s during OTAs, minicamp and training camp. Per beat writer Anwar Richardson, Young has “noticeably stood out,” and appears “poised for a breakout year.” Young himself agrees. “I always feel like the sky is the limit for me,” Young said.

SI.com’s Chris Burke backs up beat writer sentiment that WR Titus Young “continues to look like he’s on the verge of a huge season.” Burke follows the Lions as closely as any team, so he has a good read on Young’s progress. Coach Jim Schwartz calls Young “an important part” of the coaching staff’s plans this season. Young is the favorite to finish second on team in receiving yards behind Calvin Johnson.

MLive.com reports Titus Young has been barred from Lions OTAs after getting into a fight with FS Louis Delmas last week.

Burleson works more from the slot with Young emerging, but he’d move outside if Johnson went down and Ryan Broyles (worth a look in deeper leagues) would man the slot. Assuming Young is owned, Burleson would see a spike in looks and should be your first target.

Smaller, speed receivers tend to be less consistent season-to-season than their taller brethren, but Young possesses considerable upside in a Detroit offense that finished first in total drop backs a season ago.

As a 10th rounders, he is worth a flier. Just do not get too crazy and buy into him as an earlier round grab due to lack of opportunities and a tough schedule. WR4 with upside.

Nate Burleson:

2011 was probably the last fantasy viable season of Nate Burleson’s career. Starting opposite Megatron, the Lions receiver recorded the second most pass routes in the NFL with 643. Unfortunately, he turned those opportunities into a WR32 finish, Broyles’ selection could have meant the end of Burleson’s time in the Detroit, but Burleson is most likely safe for one more year after restructuring his contract.

Burleson works more from the slot with Young emerging, but he’d move outside if Johnson went down and Ryan Broyles (worth a look in deeper leagues) would man the slot. Assuming Young is owned, Burleson would see a spike in looks and should be your first target.

The Lions were acutely aware of Burleson’s struggles and selected Ryan Broyles to be his eventual replacement. That could happen as soon as mid-season if Broyles recovers quickly from his ACL injury.

Ryan Broyles:

Rookie Ryan Broyles is expected to be the No. 4 receiver “at best” this season. According to ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert, the second-rounder has been limited by “residual soreness” in his surgically repaired knee during training camp. Behind Nate Burleson and Titus Young on the depth chart, Broyles is unlikely to make an impact before Halloween.

Lions coach Jim Schwartz hasn’t ruled out the possibility of rookie Broyles (ACL surgery) being ready for Week 1. “There’s a lot of ground between now and then, but he’s on a good path,” Schwartz said. “He’s had a good rehab so far, he showed it in his pro day and he’s shown it here.” Broyles recently declared himself “back to doing everything normal,” but both Schwartz and GM Martin Mayhew have made clear that’s not the case. The tea leaves suggest Broyles will begin the year on the PUP list.

Green Bay Packers

Greg Jennings (ADP: 24) Round: 2
Jordy Nelson (ADP: 37) Round: 4
Randall Cobb (ADP: 151) Round: 13
James Jones (ADP: 205) Round:
Donald Driver (ADP: 218) Round:
Shaky Smithson (ADP: 300+) Round:

Jennings had only 3 more targets than Jordy did last year and only 5 more than Finley. Even though he had only 103 targets last year, if that total were pro-rated over a 16-game season, it still would only equal 126 targets. That is a very good mark but falls short of the volume of some of the elite wideouts in fantasy football.

Bottom line: Jennings is a lot like Rodgers in that he makes up in quality for what he might lack in quantity. He is a definite mid- to upper-range WR1.

Greg Jennings will be 29-years-old in 2012 and highly likely to remain the most targeted receiver in one of the most dynamic passing attacks in the NFL.

Jordy Nelson:

Jordy Nelson led all receivers with 0.45 fantasy points per snap in 2011. His amazing 13.3 Yards per Target in 2011, led the NFL and put him firmly on fantasy radars. His TD efficiency was off the charts, of Jordy’s 68 receptions, 22% of them were TDs. He can expect that to adjust downward this season.

Coach Mike McCarthy plans to expand Jordy Nelson’s route tree, including more snaps in the slot. McCarthy plans to make Nelson “more of the focus” by taking advantage of matchups. “It’s more about having the opportunity,” said McCarthy, “because statistics speak for themselves.” Nelson isn’t going to repeat last year’s ridiculous deep-ball efficiency or touchdown total, but the expanded offensive role should help offset the decline in those areas.

Nelson has been among the best players at Packers camp through two weeks. Now entering his fifth season, Nelson is picking up right where he left off in 2011. “Wow!” receivers coach Edgar Bennett said. “This guy just continues to improve. He is an elite receiver. … He has those three ‘S’ words: size strength and speed. This guy is a difference-maker.”

Jordy Nelson had his way with stud Browns CB Joe Haden during the second preseason game. Early on, Nelson beat Haden and was wide open in the end zone but Aaron Rodgers overthrew the ball. A few plays later, Nelson leapt over Haden for a 20-yard touchdown. It’s further proof that last year’s breakout was not a fluke. Nelson is among the game’s elite wideouts.

Our concern is over Jordy’s 3rd and 4th round ADP is that Jordy had really good corner matcups last season and made the most of it. We are concerned with an extremely difficult four game stretch to start the season against Calros Rodgers, Tim Jennings, Richard Sherman and Jabari Greer, all in a row. He only has one green matchups and the packer recievers have a middle of the rankings schedule over all.

These red matchups are a challenge no matter how well a wideout fares against top competition. He had a somewhat alarming boom/bust tendency, as he had five games where he scored five or fewer fantasy points. The boom/bust and possible one-year factors notwithstanding, Nelson is still the No. 2 wide receiver in one of the most explosive passing attacks in the NFL. His breakout 2011 campaign will probably drive his draft day value a bit higher than it should be, but if he can be had for a mid-range WR2 choice, it’s a reasonable price to pay.

Randall Cobb:

We consider Packers WR/KR Randall Cobb as the No. 1 “breakout player” in the NFC North this season. After spending some time at Packer’s training camp this summer, we like Cobb to push Donald Driver for slot receiver duties in training camp.

Cobb. was the Packers wideout with the best receptions-per-target percentage last year. Cobb caught 25 of his 31 targets (80.6 percent) and led Packers receivers with 7.5 yards after the catch. He’s currently going outside the top 160.

Although there is a risk that Cobb’s direct involvement in the Green Bay offense may not come this year.Driver has been primarily a slot receiver the past four years but will be 37 years old this year and Cobb could inherit his role and thrive. If Cobb’s snaps increase at Driver’s expense, the Packers offense will add another explosive element in the form of a Percy Harvin-like open-field talent.

Cobb led the Packers with 58 yards and a touchdown on four receptions versus the Chargers in the preseason opener so grab him in the late rounds of your leagues– before it’s too late. For now, at least, Cobb has not bypassed Donald Driver at slot receiver. We still expect the dangerous Cobb to emerge as Green Bay’s primary slot receiver this season. It will help his draft value that Cobb managed just 12 yards on two receptions in the Packers’ second preseason game against the Browns. Watch game three and adjust accordingly.

Donald Driver:

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Bob McGinn doesn’t consider Donald Driver a lock for the Packers’ 53-man roster. However, McGinn doesn’t believe the 37-year-old wideout has noticeably slipped this summer. It’s hard to see the Packers cutting their veteran leader after revising his contract in May. Driver won’t be higher than fifth on the depth chart, however.

James Jones:

James Jones and Jordy Nelson have dropped the fewest passes among wideouts in Packers camp. It’s notable because Jones’ struggles with drops have really hampered his progress. Over the last three seasons, he has the worst drop rate in the entire league. While Jones won’t push Nelson for No. 2 wideout reps, eliminating drops will lead to more snaps in three- and four-wide sets.
This would help him make the most of his opportunities on the field. He gained 11.8 yards per target in 2011, 3rd in NFL and has developed into a solid reserve fantasy receiver capable of breakout games in the right matchup. Given his usual status as the fourth or fifth option for Green Bay – it can be tough to find the right week to put Jones in your lineup.

His primary role is at outside receiver (91%), allowing Greg Jennings to work from the slot on three receiver sets or larger. Jones has 17 touchdowns the last three years, with a career high of 7 last year – but we can expect that rate to regress this year. Jones could be your player if you are looking for a potential home run pick late in your draft, although it would take a significant injury to Jennings or Jordy Nelson to fulfill that upside.

Tennessee Titans

Kenny Britt (ADP: 84) Round: 7
Nate Washington (ADP: 121) Round: 11
Kendall Wright (ADP: 175) Round: 15
Damian Williams (ADP: 247) Round:
Lavelle Hawkins (ADP: 300+) Round:
Marc Mariani (ADP: 300+) Round:

Kenny Britt was on top of the fantasy football world early in the 2011 season before tearing his right ACL in Week 3. By almost every measure, Britt was on his way to a breakout season before injury struck. Coach Mike Munchak said Kenny Britt (knee surgeries) has a chance to be active for the Titans’ preseason finale. It’s a sign that Britt has had no recent setbacks and is progressing well. He’s on track to avoid the reserve/PUP list, meaning he’d be eligible to play as soon as he’s cleared.

Six months removed from right ACL surgery, Britt “guarantees” he will be “110 percent better” than he was prior to the injury. Now running without a knee brace, Britt is already planting and cutting. Boasting a 25.5-inch vertical off his left foot, Britt is already back up to 25 inches off only his right foot.Drafting Britt this year does not come without risk, but by all accounts, he is ahead of schedule and will be ready for training camp. He is one of the few players you can draft after the mid-third round that will greatly out produce his average draft position. Count on a Top 10 finish from him in 2012. Of course, we’re still waiting to hear from the league office regarding Britt’s impending suspension. Aggressive owners viewing Britt as a “stash” should be prepared to exercise patience. Britt may be on a “pitch count” even once he’s activated and off suspension.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter says Kenny Britt could end up with a “short suspension.” Britt has been arrested eight times since entering the NFL in 2009, but other than his recent DUI most of the charges have been relatively tame. “Doesn’t sound like it’s going to be as significant as it could’ve been,” Schefter said on SportsCenter. With Britt working his knee back into shape and a mere 1-3 game suspension now seeming likely.Britt is on active/PUP, meaning he can’t work out with the team. But his twice surgically-repaired right knee is holding up well as he makes cuts. When asked when he would return to practice, Britt said, “sooner than you think.”

UPDATE: No timetable for Britt’s suspension

Nate Washington:

Nate Washington was a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners in 2011, topping 1,000 receiving yards and finishing in the Top 15 wide receivers in PPR leagues for the first time in his career at age 28. Washington made the most of the early season injury to Kenny Britt with career highs across the board.

Despite the quarterback situation, Washington was able to post 7 touchdowns – 4 of which were from rookie QB Jake Locker. With Kenny Britt returning from injury and the addition of rookie WR Kendall Wright, expect Washington’s production to mirror that of his first two years in Tennessee as a Top 50 option.

Kendall Wright:

In a draft lacking elite playmakers, Kendall Wright stood out. He is the type of receiver that you want to get the ball into his hands and Baylor did that quite often through his career.

He has ability to play in both the slot or on the outside, but Wright doesn’t have a huge catch radius and didn’t have to catch many balls in traffic at Baylor. Maybe more than any wide receiver in the draft, he benefitted from a gimmicky offense which used fake handoffs, pump fakes, and screen passes to tease the secondary. Wright still did plenty for himself and showed to be one of the better route runners at the college level. In Tennessee, he will likely be the number 2 receiver to Britt.

Kendall Wright is expected to be the Titans’ starting X receiver as long as Kenny Britt (knees, off-field) is sidelined this year. We fully expect a lengthy Britt suspension, and he may not be ready for full-time wideout snaps once he does return. Although Wright learned all three receiver positions during OTAs, he took the majority of his reps at split end — Britt’s position. Nate Washington is the Z (flanker), and Damian Williams the third receiver. Wright’s current ADP is late in the 13th round.

Wright caught all three of his targets for 47 yards in Saturday’s preseason opener. Working with both the first- and second-team offenses, all three of Wright’s targets came from the hand of Jake Locker. Wright figures to see more work as the preseason progresses and is favored to start at X receiver in Tennessee, across from Washington. The Titans are not counting on Kenny Britt.

Few rookies had a better offseason than Wright. He shined brightly in OTAs and minicamps, learned all three receiver positions and proved he could fill in for Kenny Britt (knee) if necessary. There’s a lot of upside here in the flier range of fantasy drafts for a guy with an ADP around 175.

UPDATE: Kendal Wright led the Titans with four receptions for 44 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals in the third preseason game.

Damian Williams:

Damian Williams saw the first significant action of his young career with the injury to Kenny Britt last year. After splitting time at all three wide receiver positions as a rookie, If Britt suffers a setback in his rehab, Williams will get the first call – otherwise he will be lucky to get a handful of snaps each week and can be ignored in all league formats.

Kansas City Chiefs

Dwayne Bowe (ADP: 55) Round: 5
Jonathan Baldwin (ADP: 164) Round: 14
Dexter McCluster (ADP: 225) Round:
Steve Breaston (ADP: 260) Round:
Terrance Copper (ADP: 300+) Round:
Jeremy Horne (ADP: 300+) Round:
Devon Wylie (ADP: 311) Round:

A top-20 fantasy receiver in each of his last three healthy seasons, Bowe is reporting with plenty of time for his current mid-sixth round Average Draft Position to rise back up into the fifth-round range. His big variable seems to be TDs. In 2010, he had 15, which is unsustainable.

In both seasons, he was targeted 15 times in the red zone, so it seems likely he’ll fall closer to 5 than he will 15, especially with Jon Baldwin improving and Tony Moeaki back healthy. Target Bowe as a low- end WR1, especially if he reports to camp in shape.A notable talent, Bowe should benefit this season from a rejuvenated Kansas City running game forcing defenses to keep eight defenders in the box. The Chiefs have a top 11 Strength of schedule and Bowe has 5 red matchup and seven weeks of tough secondaries. However peppered in there are 7 GREEN secondaries. Which is very good. But only as a low end WR1

Just do not forget that Bowe had seven drops and seven interceptions on passes intended for him last season. The 14 combined drops/interceptions were tied for second most in the NFL.

Jonathan Baldwin:

Jon Baldwin, not Dwayne Bowe, has been the most important player for the Chiefs during the preseason, and boy, has he answered the challenge. Baldwin is emerging as a player who looks like a young star who could give quarterback Matt Cassel a tall, powerful option down the field. Baldwin, not Bowe, is doing everything right when the man who was supposed to be his mentor is making a career mistake by refusing to sign his franchise tender immediately and allowed a second-year receiver to show the Chiefs how it’s done.

For those who believe in his talent, plenty of reasons for optimism remain. Baldwin only saw 70% of the team’s snaps once last year, but that number should rise significantly in his second season. He did see 28% of his snaps in the slot and could see the field in a variety of formations in 2012.

Baldwin’s rapid development has been “sensational” early in Chiefs camp. Baldwin is one of the handful of young NFL players drawing the most raves for his work over the past week. Coaches have been impressed with his ability to make spectacular catches seem routine. NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks notes that he has also “started to figure out how to utilize his superior physical traits to dominate on the perimeter.” We’re anxious to see if Baldwin’s emergence pushes Steve Breaston to the slot.

Two reason we like Baldwin as a sleeper, Cassel has looked more comfortable with Baldwin than he ever did with Bowe and with the Chiefs enjoying a top 11 SOS, Baldwin has 4 green matchups to only two red. We like him as a WR3 value pick. He will be a weekly flex by season’s end.

UPDATE: Sleeper status in jeopardy with a slow preseason

Dexter McCluster:

Dexter McCluster worked exclusively with the wide receivers during Chiefs OTA practice Monday.The Chiefs tried to turn McCluster into a slot receiver as a rookie, but it didn’t work. He was 8th in RB targets in 2011. He moved back to tailback in 2011 and struggled mightily. The ticket to McCluster earning a roster spot in 2012 might be punt returns. We’ve previously speculated that McCluster could be on the bubble in training camp.

Steve Breaston:

Ready to emerge as a mid-season sleeper in 2011, Breaston was the Chiefs receiver hurt the most by Matt Cassel’s injury. In four of the last five games before Cassel broke his hand, Breaston reached double digit points in PPR leagues. With Cassel at the helm, Breaston averaged 15.5 yards per reception. He also saw only 25% of his snaps in the slot, nor was he used inside extensively during his time with Arizona. Lacking true vertical or possession skills, Breaston’s upside is probably as a WR4. Baldwin could be a threat to his snaps, and Kansas City’s conservative offense is yet another concern.

Washington Redskins

Pierre Garcon (ADP: 80) Round: 7
Santana Moss (ADP: 169) Round: 15
Leonard Hankerson (ADP: 255) Round:
Josh Morgan (ADP: 265) Round:
Anthony Armstrong (ADP: 300+) Round:
Brandon Banks (ADP: 300+) Round:
Terrence Austin (ADP: 300+) Round:

Garcon played the same receiver position all year, with 94% of his snaps on the right side. After playing a secondary role to Reggie Wayne the last three years, Garcon now gets his chance to be the featured split end receiver for the Redskins after signing a free agent deal with them this offseason.

Redskins coach Mike Shanahan says Pierre Garcon has been “everything we’re hoping for.” “I’m very impressed with how he handled himself,” Shanahan said. “He has speed and explosion. He’ll block. He’s competitive. He has great hands. He will definitely be a big time receiver for our team.” Washington’s undisputed No. 1 receiver, Garcon will need a big year from rookie signal caller Robert Griffin III and further improvement with his hands to post his first 1,000-yard campaign.

His run-after-catch skills suit Shanahans’ West Coast offense, though the club will be disappointed if it expects Garcon to emerge as a double team-drawing No. 1 wide receiver. He’s ideally suited as a complementary-type, No. 2.

Garcon was exclusively an outside receiver with the Colts and figures to stick there. Hankerson mostly played outside last year, but only appeared in four games. Although he’s mostly worked from the outside, Morgan has the most experience of the three in the slot, handling 40 percent of his snaps there in 2009. Expect Garcon to start at split end with Hankerson at flanker. Morgan and Santana Moss will compete for primary slot duties.Pierre Garcon then reeled in three passes for 58 yards and a touchdown in the Redskins’ preseason opener. Garcon should have had another first-down reception on Robert Griffin’s initial throw of the game, but failed to get his second foot down along the left sideline.

Little errors like that often put Garcon in Peyton Manning’s doghouse with the Colts, but the Skins seem willing to live with them. He was the intended target on four of Griffin’s six throws and is the heavy favorite to lead the Redskins in receiving this season. We actually like Garcon as a solid WR3 with sneaky upside. With a 90 ADP, he is a cheap gamble, do it.

Leonard Hankerson:

The Redskins also have plans on starting WR Leonard Hankerson opposite of Pierre Garcon. Garcon will play split end, which would slide Hankerson in at flanker. The 2011 third-round pick would be getting the nod over Josh Morgan, who would be shuffled into a reserve role that could result in some time in the slot. Hankerson, of course, is still recovering from a hip injury, so this is all contingent on him getting back to full health. His upside will make him worth consideration late in your fantasy draft this fall.

Per reporter Mark Maske, Hankerson has been “one of the team’s more consistent pass-catchers in practices.” Hankerson is separating himself from Josh Morgan, who has struggled to get on the field with a hamstring injury. Even if he’s the fourth option behind Fred Davis, Pierre Garcon and Santana Moss, Hankerson will have fantasy appeal in Washington’s on-the-rise offense. Given the addition of Robert Griffin III as potentially elite quarterback prospect, the Redskins passing game has plenty of room for production growth.

Josh Morgan:

Morgan is one of the league’s most effective per-play receivers after the catch. The Redskins are looking to maximize Robert Griffin III’s downfield playmaking ability. He’ll join Pierre Garcon, and likely Eddie Royal, in a revamped Redskins receiving corps. The Redskins plan to hold a competition at “Z” receiver, or flanker, between Josh Morgan and Leonard Hankerson. Morgan is the heavy favorite for the starting job because he’s making quite a bit more money and is healthier than Hankerson. The flanker position in Washington’s offense was played by Jabar Gaffney last season. We wouldn’t expect big-time production from any of the Redskins’ flankers. Split end Pierre Garcon will be the best bet in fantasy leagues, along with TE Fred Davis.

Santana Moss:

The Redskins look to be moving away from Santana Moss, soon-to-be 33 years old. There are some indications that it is a good decision. Yet, Moss remains locked into the slot receiver job. After slimming down to 189 pounds and regaining some quickness, the 5’10″ Moss fits naturally in the slot. He projects to bounce back off last year’s per-game averages of 3.8 catches and 48.6 yards. .
We think its his last year as a Redskin and should be ignored for fantasy purposes in 2012.

Houston Texans

Andre Johnson (ADP: 22) Round: 2
Lestar Jean (ADP: 248) Round:
Devier Posey (ADP: 273) Round:
Kevin Walter (ADP: 279) Round:
Bryant Johnson (ADP: 300+) Round:

Andre Johnson was a disappointment for his fantasy owners in 2011, playing in only 7 of 16 games due to hamstring problems. Johnson’s per game metrics fell across the board from 2010 – his fantasy points per game dropped from 19.7 to 13.6 and his targets dropped from 10.1 per game to 8.1. Some will point to his age, he will be 31 in July, but Johnson should have several productive years left. It is easy to forget that Johnson was off to a typical fast start through three games before being hurt – he had 21 receptions on 30 targets for 316 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Johnson had scored either eight or nine touchdowns each of the past three seasons before an injury-shortened 2011 season. In the six full games Johnson played in 2011, he averaged 9.5 targets-per-game, which was just behind his 10.1 average from 2010.Johnson has never had double-digit touchdowns in a season. Last year Owen Daniels led the Texans with 79 targets. Arian Foster had more targets than any WR.

Johnson remains a top 5 receiver in our draft guide, behind only Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones and Larry Fitzgerald. Johnson is due to face only one red-rated cornerback after week five. He also has two green-rated cornerbacks on the docket in that time frame, so his fantasy football stretch run is incredibly favorable.The risk averse should consider him a mid-range WR1. Risk takers can slot him as a high-end WR1.

Keshawn Martin:

HoustonTexans.com acknowledges WR Keshawn Martin “seems to have separated” from Lestar Jean and DeVier Posey in Texans camp. Now all Martin has to do is hold that separation in the preseason. He started place of Andre Johnson in Saturday’s preseason opener. Martin is a name to keep in mind in the later rounds of PPR drafts.

Lestar Jean:

With Andre Johnson (knee scope) resting, Lestar Jean saw first-team action at Texans OTA practices. Coach Gary Kubiak confirmed that Jean has an “excellent opportunity” to earn a spot in Houston’s three-wide offense. A 2011 camp and preseason star, Jean is getting the first crack to replace Jacoby Jones.

Devier Posey:

DeVier Posey is one of the more frustrating wide receiver prospects there is in the draft. He is smooth in and out of his routes and possess plus athleticism, but will lose concentration and drop the easiest of balls. Receivers that put the ball on the ground do not see the field for long in the NFL. Still, the Ohio State offense was completely different with Posey in the lineup and if Posey can solve the drop issues he could make teams regret passing on him.

Kevin Walter:

The Houston Chronicle expects Kevin Walter to lose snaps to the Texans’ younger wide receivers in 2012. Walter’s separation skills and playmaking ability are evaporating at age 31. While he remains a solid fit for Houston’s run-based offense due to his superb blocking, Walter probably won’t be an every-down receiver this season. Look for Lestar Jean, in particular, to make a run at Walter’s job in training camp.

Denver Broncos

Demaryius Thomas (ADP: 48) Round: 4
Eric Decker (ADP: 71) Round: 6
Brandon Stokley (ADP: 253) Round:
Andre Caldwell (ADP: 286) Round:
Jason Hill (ADP: 300+) Round:
Matt Willis (ADP: 300+) Round:
Mark Dell (ADP: 300+) Round:

Extrapolated over a full season, Demaryius Thomas’ final seven games would have left him as the No. 2 fantasy receiver in 2011.

Tebow made loved Eric Decker until Thomas emerged as the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in Week 13.Although he also recorded a sterling 6.6 yards after the catch, 29% of his targets came more than 20 yards down the field. While Manning should help Thomas in many ways, it’s worth noting that he struggled badly with his deep ball in 2010, ranking 25th in deep accuracy. Keeping those caveats in mind, Thomas is a strong breakout candidate on his own merits.

The caveat with Thomas is that he’s among biggest injury risks in the NFL. Especially considering his injury issues and supposed lack of polish, the 2.3 yards per route he has averaged through two seasons suggests future stardom.

DEN has a top ten schedule against opposing secondaries, but 7 red cornerback matchups this season and two in the fantasy playoffs and make Thomas possibly not the WR to own in DEN. Decker only has 5 red matchups but he has 4 green matchups to go with it.Eric Decker:

While Eric Decker is poised for a breakout season this year, there are some warning signs to be wary of. Last season, Decker posted an atrocious 16.98 drop rate, finishing the year with 9 drops on 91 targets. This rate was consistent even when he was in the slot, where he posted a 16.00 drop rate. Decker did a lot of his work out of the slot last year, lining up there 32.4% of the time.

Decker actually led the Broncos in targets with 91, with Thomas following with 65.

Decker confirmed he’s encountered no setbacks recovering from his sprained MCL, which was suffered in the playoffs. Decker believes he would have played had the Broncos advanced to the AFC title game. Decker will be Denver’s Z receiver, or flanker, in the new Peyton Manning-led offense, while Demaryius Thomas will be the “X”, or split end.

The Broncos are planning on having Eric Decker run 35-to-40 pass routes per game. Prior to spraining his MCL in the Wild Card round, Decker ran a route on 94 percent of Denver’s pass plays, which worked out to 30 routes a game. Consider, however, that the Broncos ran the ball on half of Decker’s snaps. Decker will benefit from the new pass-first offense and should be considered a top-25 fantasy receiver and with a top ten easiest schedule for fantasy WRs, we consider Decker the DEN WR to own, especially if PPR.

Brandon Stokley:

Turning 36 this month, Stokley has some fantasy intrigue in PPR formats if he can beat out Jacob Tamme and Andre Caldwell for underneath targets in the Peyton Manning-led offense.

San Diego Chargers

Robert Meachem (ADP: 87) Round: 8
Malcom Floyd (ADP: 97) Round: 9
Vincent Brown (ADP: 155) Round: 13
Eddie Royal (ADP: 262) Round:
Roscoe Parrish (ADP: 300+) Round:
Micheal Spurlock (ADP: 300+) Round:
Richard Goodman (ADP: 300+) Round:

In fact, all three of those numbers are still career highs across the board.While he never truly broke out in New Orleans, it’s worth noting he was also in a fairly crowded receiving corps. San Diego has some decent talent as well (Antonio Gates, Vincent Brown, Malcom Floyd), but this year or next may be Meachem’s best opportunity to break out. Keep in mind he’s learning a new system and reading a new QB, so I don’t quite expect a monstrous jump. Always a better bet in non-PPR leagues, a slightly better line than his 3 year average in New Orleans (43/660/6.7) seems about right.

The National Football Post’s Dan Pompei is issuing a ‘fantasy alert’ on Robert Meachem after a recent discussion with Chargers coach Norv Turner.
Turner says he wouldn’t be surprised to see Meachem between 60 and 70 catches with 1,000 receiving yards. “Look at the history of the offense,” Turner said. “Meachem is capable of giving us that stat production if he can play a complete season.”

As for why Meachem hasn’t put up big numbers in his career so far, Turner pointed out the depth of wide receiver in New Orleans. He went on to mention that Meachem “hasn’t been the focal point”, which gives the impression that he’ll now have that opportunity in San Diego. A 65-catch, 1,000 yard season with a half dozen touchdowns would put Meachem in WR2 territory, making him a player to target.

What’s clear is that both reporters tasked with covering the beat expect Meachem, not Malcom Floyd, to be the Bolts’ No. 1 receiver. We do not expect him to finish strong since he faces 6 red matchups wth 4 consective to end the season.

Malcom Floyd:

Malcom Floyd had the best fantasy season of his career at age 30, despite only playing in 12 games. Floyd took advantage of the injury troubles with TE Antonio Gates to finish in the Top 30 in fantasy points per game among wide receivers. The trouble with Floyd is not his production when he is on the field; it is how often he is on the field. Like his teammates, Vincent Brown and Robert Meachem, Floyd is a downfield threat in the passing game. Floyd led all NFL wide receivers with his 19.9 yards per reception.

He was a long baller and saved some fantasy teams because of that as a spot start last year. His 12.2 yards per target in 2011 were second in NFL. He was second on the Chargers WRs with only 68 targets after VJax’s 110.

However, the Chargers have the 32nd rated pass protecting oline. Floyd faces 8 red matchups and 4 in the last 5 games, Including Richard Sherman (2xs), Sean Smith, Antonio Winfield, Derrelle Revis, Carlos Rodgers and Tim Jennings

What really helps Floyd is his familiarity not only with Rivers but with the Chargers’ offense; he’s been in it his entire career. With Jackson gone and Robert Meachem (and other new Chargers receivers) just now getting acclimated to the Bolts’ scheme, Floyd might have the best chance to succeed. Oh, and he’s also entering a contract year. He’s really not that bad of a late-round pick — if anything, he’s a low-risk, high-reward receiver who might get off to a great start in Week 1 at Oakland. Remember his name late.

Vincent Brown:

Vincent Brown would have been a popular sleeper candidate this year if the Chargers had not signed Robert Meachem in free agency. Brown was not much a slot option (11%) for San Diego last year despite being less than 6’0” and spent his limited snaps on the outside. With the team also signing Eddie Royal in free agency, Brown will need to surpass Meachem or Malcom Floyd on the depth chart to see any significant time. The good news is that he has outplayed Meachem in camp.

After Brown led the Chargers in receiving in the preseason opener, Norv Turner indicated the 2011 third-rounder will “figure real strongly in what we do.” “He’s had a great offseason, he’s in the middle of having an outstanding training camp, and he obviously is a playmaker,” said Turner. Although the Chargers believe Robert Meachem is the perfect fit for their offense, Brown has outplayed him since camp opened. Brown is a late-round flier who could pay off in a big way if Meachem doesn’t improve his rapport with Philip Rivers.

If he does, we like him over other SD WRs because all other WRs on SD have tough CB matchups Brown has 5 green matchups with two of them in the fantasy playoffs. It is doubtful you would have to draft him late, but be ready to make him a priority waiver wire claim in a moment’s notice.

UPDATE: Brown out 8 weeks with broken left ankle

Eddie Royal:

Eddie Royal is coming off a disappointing fantasy season in 2011, but there is at least some hope now that he is with San Diego. Royal signed a deal with the Chargers early in free agency to become their much needed slot receiver. Interestingly enough, Royal only played in the slot 11% of the time last year for Broncos after playing there 79% of the time in 2010.

Royal has been out since early August, essentially missing all of training camp. After a puff piece-filled spring, Royal has done nothing to diminish ongoing concerns about his durability. Royal isn’t worth a fantasy football pick. Royal will see an improvement in opportunity and situation with QB Philip Rivers, but not enough to make him a viable fantasy option in 2012.

Roscoe Parrish:

Parrish can still help a team as a punt returner and occasional slot receiver, but he’s played just 35-of-64 games over the past four years. At 5’9/178, his body simply can’t take the pounding. Parrish will likely have to battle for a roster spot in San Diego; his skill-set is superfluous with Royal now on board.

Arizona Cardinals

Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 13) Round: 2
Michael Floyd (ADP: 150) Round: 13
Andre Roberts (ADP: 252) Round:
Early Doucet (ADP: 270) Round:
Stephen Williams (ADP: 300+) Round:
DeMarco Sampson (ADP: 300+) Round:
Jaymar Johnson (ADP: 300+) Round:

Lost in the drama over the lousy quarterbacks who were throwing Fitz the ball last season was the fact that he posted his third 1,400-yard season in five years.Fitz was also responsible for 30% of the team’s targets and 40% of the WR target with 151 total. Next closest was Andre Roberts. That lead to 4th in targets in the NFL in 2011 but that could be impacted a bit with Michael Floyd.In 16 games last season, Fitzgerald was targeted fewer than seven times only twice and reached double digits on seven occasions. He’s seen 26-plus percent of the Cardinals’ targets each of the last four years and hasn’t scored fewer than 38 percent of the receiving touchdowns during the same span. Fitzgerald has averaged seven touchdowns over the last two seasons after racking up 15 in 2009 and 19 in 2008.In addition to his terrible QB situation (which he outperformed in 2011) he faces the 5th toughest fantasy WR schedule. He has a couple easy matchups in the first month but never goes a stretch of games without some really difficult matchups. His individual CB matchups aren’t as bad until a brutal playoff push stretch where he faces Asante Samuel, Cortland Finnegan (for the second time) and Anotion Cromartie in succession. It gets easier after that.

We would wait until the late second round on Fitz and since he will not be there in any draft, he is a high value player we feel okay about skipping in the early second.

UPDATE: Cards have not moved Fitz around in the formation

Michael Floyd:

Michael Floyd would have been the third-ranked WR in the 2011 draft but chose to stay and rehab his off the field image following a DUI. Floyd has ideal size (6’3, 220 pounds) and at the combine showed off an impressive 4.42 40-yard dash. A hands-catcher, Floyd does a nice job of high-pointing the ball and is one of the best run-blockers in the draft to boot.

The Sports Xchange’s Len Pasquarelli confirms that Michael Floyd has been “slow to adjust” to NFL-level work ethic. The Cardinals are reportedly high on Andre Roberts as the starter opposite Larry Fitzgerald, We do expect it to grow as the season moves along. Best case projection with a bottom 6 SOS: 102 targets, 60 receptions, 890 yards, 5 TD (PPR WR 36)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Vincent Jackson (ADP: 58) Round: 5
Mike Williams (ADP: 136) Round: 12
Arrelious Benn (ADP: 283) Round:
Preston Parker (ADP: 300+) Round:
Sammie Stroughter (ADP: 300+) Round:
Tiquan Underwood (ADP: 300+) Round:

Jackson, who was signed to a $55 million contract in March, is clearly the best wideout Freeman has ever played with.New OC Mike Sullivan has installed a new playbook and is simultaneously integrating new No. 1 wideout Jackson.

He’ll be the first read on the majority of pass plays, but will still come with significant risk for fantasy owners. Jackson’s matchup-buster abilities are also going to be tested against a very tough schedule that has 7 red-rated cornerbacks (including three to start the season) and 2 yellow-rated cornerbacks. If Josh Freeman isn’t back to his 2010 form early on, Jackson could struggle. 

The Bucs are implementing a run-first offense under new coach Greg Schiano and Freeman underperformed badly last season. The run-first nature of the Schiano offense places a limit on Jackson’s upside. Jackson will immediately slot in as the No. 1 receiver in Tampa, sending Mike Williams to No. 2 and Arrelious Benn to a situational role. Expect Jackson’s fantasy stock to decline with a quarterback downgrade and coach Greg Schiano’s traditionally run-heavy offensive attack.

Jackson would be a WR1 if not for the uncertainty with Freeman and the run-first offense. Even with those issues, he is still a mid-range WR2.

Mike Williams:

Mike Williams said he learned all the receiver positions during mini camp. Williams projects as the starting “Z,” but there have been whispers that he could be pushed by Preston Parker. Williams’ role and performance will be something to monitor closely at training camp. He led the Bucs in targets last season with 119, 5 more than Winslow.

Currently, Williams is listed as the No. 2 receiver on the Bucs’ initial depth chart. Despite off season speculation to the contrary, he remains ahead of Preston Parker. It’s good news for Williams that the new coaching staff isn’t making him “earn” his starting job, but he’ll still be on notice during the preseason. It would be surprising if he isn’t lined up opposite Jackson come Week 1.

He lined up on the field 62% as the LWR yet,Williams’ skill set is better suited for the flanker role, something that will be remedied immediately by the addition of Jackson. He has all-around skills that will allow him to serve in whatever role the Bucs have set up for him. Williams may never crack the Top 20 again, but with Jackson taking coverage away from him, several Top 40 could happen.

Receivers coach P.J. Fleck raved about Mike Williams’ “transformation and commitment” this training camp. But now in the best shape of his life, he’s bouncing back with a big camp and has a firm grip on the starting “Z” receiver job opposite Vincent Jackson. The problem is new coach Greg Schiano’s commitment to a conservative, run-based offense.

Here is his plus side: Tampa enjoys the second easiest fantasy WR schedule but VJax has 7 red individual matchups. So perhaps he is not the one to own. If Mike Williams gets on track, he has only 6. Still like these guys to start off well with no tough top ten matchups in the entire season.

UPDATE: Bucs added WR Jordan Shipley off waivers

Jacksonville Jaguars

Justin Blackmon (ADP: 113) Round: 10
Laurent Robinson (ADP: 148) Round: 13
Mike Thomas (ADP: 275) Round:
Lee Evans (ADP: 300+) Round:
Brian Robiskie (ADP: 300+) Round:
Chastin West (ADP: 300+) Round:
Cecil Shorts (ADP: 300+) Round:
Taylor Price (ADP: 300+) Round:

Jaguars signed their first-round pick Justin Blackmon and he has already been installed with the first-team offense in training camp practices. The coaching staff looking to get Blackmon as many reps as possible after his ultimately brief training-camp holdout.Blackmon, at 6’1, will bring to Jacksonville Jaguars is a #1 wide receiver, finally.

He wants the ball and most times it is a good idea to give it to him. Most college WR have difficulty at selling their routes, but the Oklahoma State offense went out of their way to get him the ball, but he was never shut down in his career, which is something no other WR in this draft class can say.Justin Blackmon caught four balls for 48 yards and a touchdown in his preseason debut. Blackmon sat out Jacksonville’s preseason opener because he wasn’t ready to play following an ultimately brief holdout.

He played extensively with the first-team offense against the Saints, though, hauling in a 16-yard touchdown pass from Blaine Gabbert for the first points of the game. The Jaguars appear poised to run a quick-hitting, short-passing based offense in order to minimize Gabbert’s poor pocket presence and an inconsistent offensive line.

As a physical run-after-catch receiver, Blackmon could benefit from that kind of scheme at flanker in Mike Mularkey’s offense. (It’s Roddy White’s old position in Atlanta.)

UPDATE: Blackmon coming on strong in the preseason

Laurent Robinson:

Laurent Robinson was one of the breakout stars of the 2011 season, seemingly coming out of nowhere to finish in the Top 20 wide receivers on the strength of 11 touchdown receptions.

Robinson’s scored 11 TDs in 2011 are is due to regress this year. Of his 11 touchdowns, three were over 30 yards (70, 58, and 34) and seven came from inside the 10-yard line.

Jaguars.com expects Laurent Robinson to be Jacksonville’s No. 1 receiver. They anticipate using Robinson at “X” receiver and Blackmon at “Z” in Mike Mularkey’s offense.

We like Robinson as the take of the two just because he has 5 green matchups vs 5 red. Its all about the early half of the season and whether Gabbert gets the yank for Henne. He has a ADP of 149 so he is low risk.

Mike Thomas:

Thomas led the Jaguars with 86 targets in 2011. Yet, the more he watches the team practice, Jaguars beat writer Mark Long is “less convinced” that WR Mike Thomas will be on the roster after training camp.

Buffalo Bills

Steve Johnson (ADP: 68) Round: 6
Donald Jones (ADP: 243) Round:
David Nelson (ADP: 246) Round:
Derek Hagan (ADP: 300+) Round:
Naaman Roosevelt (ADP: 300+) Round:
Marcus Easley (ADP: 300+) Round:
Ruvell Martin (ADP: 300+) Round:
Kamar Aiken (ADP: 300+) Round:
T.J Graham (ADP: 300+) Round:

Steve Johnson was 7th on the NFL in targets in 2011, but David Nelson tied Johnson for 20% of teams targets in 2011. 

Most of Johnson’s targets are not down field, he only had 18 targets over 20 yards in 2011 or 14% of his 132 targets. Working in Johnson’s favor has been his ability to get the best of Jets CB Darrelle Revis. In 2011 Johnson caught 11 receptions on 18 targets for 159 yards and a touchdown with Revis in coverage.

Johnson’s 138 targets last ranked seventh in the league and provide a strong indicator that he is on his way to becoming one of the few wide receivers worthy of the term workhorse. A lot of that was due to the short passes that are the centerpiece of this dink/dunk offense, but Johnson’s 55 vertical targets did rank 24th among wideouts, so there is a vertical segment to his game.

His seven double-digit fantasy point contests, 11 games with eight or more fantasy points and terrific week 12 performance against Revis provide evidence Johnson has the ability to be an every week starter. Yet, Johnson’s 2011 campaign also included a seven game stretch from weeks 4-11 where he had five games with five or fewer points and tallied a total of 30 points. That shows he still isn’t consistent enough to be relied upon as an every week starter.

Buffalo’s bottom ten toughest fantasy WR schedule makes them a pass. Johnson has a three game stretch 10-12 where ha can give you some life, but BUF faces a tough set of defenses and Johnson has 5 red matchups of his own against 3 green. Donald Jones is 5 red to 3 green as well. That gives Johnson mid-range WR3 value.

UPDATE: Has soreness with groin

David Nelson:

David Nelson is expected to be the “main receiver in the slot” for the Bills again this season. Donald Jones has seen an increase in snaps out of the slot during offseason practices as the Bills experiment with personnel. Coach Chan Gailey runs as many multi-receiver sets as any play-caller in the league.

You were able to grab Nelson off waivers last year after his combined performances in Weeks 2 and 3 when he totaled 16 receptions on 20 targets for 157 yards and a touchdown. Nelson’s performance the remainder of the year was not as stellar – totaling only 41 receptions for 425 yards and 4 touchdowns in his last 13 games. Nelson is almost exclusively a slot receiver (86%).

Donald Jones:

Donald Jones earned a starting job opposite Steve Johnson in his second season as an undrafted free agent from Youngstown State. Two separate ankle injuries limited Jones to just eight games last year. Like his teammate Johnson, Jones moves around the formation playing about equally on the left outside receiver (38%) as the right (41%).

Donald Jones is expected to keep his starting job opposite Stevie Johnson. As one of the weaker No. 2 receivers in the NFL, Jones is hardly entrenched. While the Bills remain high on size/speed prospect Marcus Easley, beat writer Joe Buscaglia believes it’s a “stretch” to expect him to compete for the starting job after missing two seasons due to injuries. David Nelson will work out of the slot again this season.

Chan Gailey notes that WR Donald Jones has had a “very good camp.” There are probably wide receivers that offer higher upside potential than Jones does later in your fantasy draft, so look elsewhere for a sleeper candidate.

T.J Graham:

With Bills training camp having reached its conclusion, WGR 550 Buffalo’s Joe Buscaglia nominated third-round pick T.J. Graham as the “rookie standout” of camp practices. The Bills are transitioning from St. John Fisher College back to their Orchard Park home. Graham, the 69th overall pick in the draft, reportedly showed an ability to make “tough catches” and play with “burst” while garnering more and more first-team reps. The Bills’ receivers aside from Stevie Johnson offer little fantasy appeal, but Graham is a player to monitor from that group.

Seattle Seahawks

Sidney Rice (ADP: 123) Round: 11
Terrell Owens (ADP: 162) Round: 14
Doug Baldwin (ADP: 179) Round: 15
Golden Tate (ADP: 204) Round: 16
Braylon Edwards (ADP: 266) Round:
Kris Durham (ADP: 300+) Round:
Ben Obomanu (ADP: 300+) Round:
Deon Butler (ADP: 300+) Round:
Ricardo Lockette (ADP: 300+) Round:

So to say he has a few injury red flags would be an understatement.Nevertheless, Rice is one of the most talented receivers in the NFL, and proved it last season despite being all but written off. he was also targeted on deep passes 39.3% of all his targets. For a player so heavily targeted on deep balls, Rice had an outstanding 8.57 drop rate last year. While you can’t bet on him staying healthy through a full season, you can certainly bet on him putting up strong numbers while he’s on the field.

Rice has been cleared to practice after he opened camp on the active/PUP list, but was activated after only a few hours. He vows to be ready to play in the regular-season opener. “I’m playing in the Cardinal game,” Rice said. “My plan is to be out there September 9 versus the Cardinals in Arizona.” It’s evident from the signings of Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards that Rice has more confidence in his Week 1 availability than the team’s brass does. Rice is a fine enough flier at his current late ninth-round ADP, but expectations should be low since he has 8 red corner matchups which are the are worst on SEA of all WRs.

Doug Baldwin:

Among impact rookies, Baldwin posted the highest marks in yards per pass route run (2.27), targets per route (24%), and pass routes per snap (67%). The key for Baldwin will be improving on the 354 routes he logged as a rookie. He also led the Seahawks in targets with 85…with Rice out.

Baldwin is hoping to earn a promotion beyond slot duties in 2012. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game,” he said. “(And) it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” Baldwin has been working out daily since the regular season ended. He’ll be worth late-round consideration in 2012 fantasy drafts, but is unlikely to open the year as anything other than the Seahawks’ No. 3 receiver despite his lofty aspirations.

Terrell Owens:

Matt Flynn complemented Terrell Owens’ “smoothness” after watching him on the practice field so far in training camp. In other words, there’s no hitch in Owens’ step as he comes back from major 2011 knee surgery. “He’s very smooth,” said Flynn. “… He’s obviously a physical specimen. Big guy, big hands, big strong hands. And he got out there the first day and ran some some routes that aren’t easy to just get out there and run your first day and haven’t run them in a while. Ran them smoothly. I could read him out of his break, so it was good.”

We consider Owens safe to pass on the draft and would only find value on waivers if injuries occur and Edwards doesn’t make the team.

Golden Tate:

In the first 11 games of the season, Tate averaged 1 reception, 2 targets, and 16 receiving yards per game. Once he was made a starter, Tate averaged 4 receptions on 6 targets for 43 yards per game. It was not a significant increase, but noteworthy nonetheless.

Of Golden Tate’s 35 receptions last season, 19 came in the final five games.
That number extrapolates to 61 receptions over a 16-game season, though it’s important to note that No. 1 receiver Sidney Rice was out of the lineup during that span. Barring another injury to Rice or Doug Baldwin, Tate will be no more than a late-round flier in fantasy drafts.

Tate split time equally across all the wide receiver spots last year (LWR, Slot, and RWR) and has played exclusively at split end in this year’s camp.
He had struggled while learning multiple positions in his first two seasons. Tate is having an “outstanding” camp, impressing coaches with his “speed, explosiveness and ball skills.” Tate and Braylon Edwards are directly competing at split end, with Terrell Owens acting as insurance for Sidney Rice at flanker.

Baldwin played in the slot 88% of his snaps last year, and is a near lock for that role again. Tate is a worth a late round flier in your drafts as a WR5 with upside.

Braylon Edwards:

011 was a lost year for Edwards with the 49ers due to a knee injury. He only managed 236 snaps and was bad for most of them. However, in 2010, he was a nice player and is exactly what the Jets did not have but needed in 2011.

Edwards has appeared 100 percent recovered from offseason knee surgery at Seahawks camp. Per the News Tribune, Edwards is “consistently making explosive plays.” Still, he’s listed as the third-team split end behind Golden Tate and Kris Durham on the team’s official depth chart. “Like any good player, he just has to get comfortable with the offense,” receivers coach Kippy Brown said. Edwards’ roster spot isn’t secure, especially after the Seahawks added Owens.

ESPN’s Mike Sando believes Braylon Edwards and Terrell Owens are battling for one roster spot. The idea is that the Seahawks can’t keep two veteran receivers that don’t contribute on special teams. However, Rice’s continued injury problems and the struggles of Tate/Obomanu leave this wideout corps with a lot of question marks. The depth chart here is extremely fluid.

UPDATE: Edwards appears to be the most consistent WR of the corps

Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Wallace (ADP: 39) Round: 4
Antonio Brown (ADP: 65) Round: 6
Emmanuel Sanders (ADP: 251) Round:
Chris Rainey (ADP: 271) Round:
Jerricho Cotchery (ADP: 300+) Round:

ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports holdout Mike Wallace is “expected to report back to Steelers before the regular season begins.” However, Schefter does allow Wallace could “(always) change his mind.” Schefter’s report echoes those of CBS’ Pat Kirwan and ESPN’s Bob Holtzman. Reporting before Week 1 would make Wallace’s holdout more baffling, as it would mean the only thing he accomplished was avoiding preseason injury. If he could take the salary hit, digging in until Week 10 would have made more sense. As it stands now, Wallace will be way behind in new OC Todd Haley’s offense, and perhaps behind Antonio Brown on the depth chart. The Steelers have been adamant Wallace won’t be traded.

The Pittsburgh-Tribune Review confirms the Steelers have turned down trade inquiries for unsigned restricted free agent Mike Wallace.
It’s no shocker that receiver-needy teams have inquired about Wallace, but the Steelers “remain steadfast” in their decision not to make him available for trade. The sentiment in Steelers camp is that Wallace will report to the team in the next couple of weeks.

Wallace was the target on 22 percent of the Steelers’ throws and has scored, at least, 36 percent of the team’s receiving touchdowns each of the last two seasons. Despite the emergence of Antonio Brown, Wallace saw 8.3 targets-per-game during the last four games of 2011.

PIT has a dead middle SOS so you look at thecorner matchups. Wallace has 5 red matchups and so does Antonio Brown. PIT gets a brutal weeks 11-13 where they face the top three secondaries int he NFL conseutively. Not somethign you want to rely om going into the fantasy playoff push.

Even with a career high in targets, he was still barely inside the Top 30 wide receivers in terms of targets per game. Wallace makes for a mid-range WR2; however, someone in your league is likely to take him as a Top 10 option.

Antonio Brown:

Antonio Brown seemingly came out of nowhere to post 69 receptions and over 1,100 yards in 2011, that is unless you followed us on twitter. We pegged Brown as a breakout candidate last year because he was one of the most targeted wide receivers in the league on a per snap and on a per pass route run basis in 2010.

Starting with his Week 7 breakout game against Arizona (seven catches, 102 yards), he was 12th in the NFL in targets and tied for 17th in receptions, and he had the eighth-most receiving yards. Over that same time frame, Mike Wallace was tied for 40th in targets, tied for 44th in receptions and 32nd in receiving yards. Wallace did have more touchdowns than Brown over that time frame, Four touchdowns to two. Wallace is going, on average, four to five rounds ahead of Brown.

Despite only playing 66 snaps as a rookie, it was clear that Ben Roethlisberger favored Brown when he was on the field. The proof is that he was 18th in the NFL in targets in 2011 and led the Steelers in targets with 120 and had 7 more than Wallace while wallace had over 300 more snaps!

Brown took advantage of the opportunity and overshadowed fellow teammate Emmanuel Sanders. The only downside to Brown’s breakout season was his touchdown totals. His 3% touchdown rate was poor, but should not be a precursor to low totals through his career. Brown will again be a strong WR3 for your team.

Emmanuel Sanders:

Sanders has fallen far behind Antonio Brown in the wide receiver pecking order. The Steelers plan to use Emmanuel Sanders as their primary punt and kickoff returner in 2012. This is assuming Wallace stays on the roster; Sanders might have to start and focus on offense if Wallace leaves. In his two-year career, Sanders is averaging 24.0 yards per kickoff return and 11.7 yards per punt. This is a note to keep in mind for return-yardage leaguers going forward.

Coach Mike Tomlin has concerns about WR/KR Emmanuel Sanders’ ability to stay healthy going forward. Sanders has battled a multitude of lower-leg injuries in just two seasons. “You can’t anticipate it’s going to stop,” Tomlin said of the injuries, while maintaining that Sanders is on track in recovery from his latest surgery.

It was supposed to be Emmanuel Sanders with the breakout season in 2011, not his teammate Antonio Brown. For the second year in a row, Sanders battled injuries and missed five games. Despite playing in two less games than his rookie year, almost all of Sanders’ statistical metrics remained the same including targets per game, yards per reception and fantasy points per snap. Unfortunately, that also means that Sanders did not progress much from his rookie year.

Jerricho Cotchery:

Jerricho Cotchery has been running as the No. 3 wideout at Steelers camp. With Wallace out of the mix, the Steelers are using Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders out wide and Cotchery in the slot. But even if Wallace’s holdout extends to the regular season, Cotchery is a low-upside option. He’s lacking burst at age 30. Given Sanders’ injury history and inconsistent play, Cotchery is a strong option as a No. 4 wideout.

New England Patriots

Wes Welker (ADP: 28) Round: 3
Brandon Lloyd (ADP: 53) Round: 5
Deion Branch (ADP: 238) Round:
Jabar Gaffney (ADP: 242) Round:
Julian Edelman (ADP: 300+) Round:
Jesse Holley (ADP: 300+) Round:
Matt Slater (ADP: 300+) Round:
Donte Stallworth (ADP: 300+) Round:

He is a WR1 in PPR leagues but there are reasons to expect to see a drop in receptions this season. 111 cacthe in four of the last five seasons is strong, but the Patriots’ offense figures to look a little different with WR Brandon Lloyd and OC Josh McDaniels in town.

Like much of the Patriots passing game this season, they will be productive but have a bad strngth of schedule to deal with. For Welker, 7 bad red corner back matchups with 3 in the final 5 games.Welker had 6 green corner matchups in 2011 and exploded during those weeks averaging over 20 pts a game. He averaged 5 pts a game less vs red matchups and only had two last year, now he has 7 in 2012. The Patriots passing game faces some tough defenses in the fantasy playoffs this year, you can expect production but not blowouts.

Welker is a master at dink/dunk routes but his 18.9 VYPA ranked second in that category and shows he has a strong downfield element in his game. This is another area of regression if Brandon Lloyd experiences any level of success vertically. No receiver has caught more balls thrown 20+ yards in the air over that span than Lloyd. Welker also was just as productive when facing cornerback/safety coverage as he was when operating in space so he will still be productive.

Still Tom Brady’s favorite target, we see projects him at 90 receptions so consider him a mid- to low-end WR1.

Brandon Lloyd:

If you are a Patriots fancouldn’t have asked for much more WR value than Brandon Lloyd. From a fantasy perspective, the days of Lloyd being a stand out WR1 are likely as good as gone.

Even though Lloyd has reportedly caught “almost everything thrown his way” at training camp. We’d expect volume to Lloyd to some degree with Josh McDaniels calling the plays. The last time Lloyd and McDaniels were together for a full season (Denver, 2010), he racked up a career-high 1,448 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow as his quarterbacks. Now, Tom Brady. Just remember that was Lloyd’s only career 1000+ yd season.

Yet, competing with the likes of Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez means there are only so many targets to go around. While he is likely to beat Deion Branch’s 2011 numbers of 51/702/5, don’t go expecting a monster campaign, especially if the Patriots keep trying to head towards a balanced run/pass approach.

Its all big ball for Lloyd. Over the past two seasons, with McDaniels as his head coach or primary offensive coordinator, Lloyd was the most targeted receiver on throws deeper than 20 yards downfield, with 73 such targets. Thats feast of famine for fantasy.

If you care about schedules (and you eventually will), you should know NE has the TOUGHEST schedule for fantasy WRs. But Lloyd has the easiest corner matchups of all Pats pass catchers. Only 4 reds and moderate matchups after those.

Lloyd may struggle to bypass 65-70 receptions, but double-digit scores and 1,000+ yards are reasonable expectations.

Deion Branch:

At the moment, Deion Branch is, at best, the fifth option at receiver for the Patriots, and could be lower if one of the young backs displays some pass-catching skills. His 51 catches and 85 targets in 2011 are sure to decrease in 2012 without some injury assistance ahead of him, but Branch remains a viable fill-in option in deeper leagues because he has touchdown upside.

Jabar Gaffney:

Jabar Gaffney has not locked up the No. 3 wideout job. Per ESPN Boston, Gaffney hasn’t been a playmaker and “hasn’t seen as many reps as we would expect.” His inability to separate from Deion Branch and Donte’ Stallworth is a yellow flag. Regardless, whoever wins this job will fall in line behind Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Brandon Lloyd on the target totem pole.

Indianapolis Colts

Reggie Wayne (ADP: 82) Round: 7
Austin Collie (ADP: 133) Round: 12
T.Y Hilton (ADP: 282) Round:
Ty Hilton (ADP: 297) Round:
Donnie Avery (ADP: 300+) Round:
LaVon Brazill (ADP: 345) Round:

Wayne’s 121 targets occurred in a season where Indianapolis passers threw only 545 passes. That is a reachable target volume even in a Bruce Arians offense, so Wayne could replicate his target total.

The Colts have the 6th toughest fantasy WR schedule but Wayne has the toughest corner matchups out of Collie, Avery and Fleener. Wayne’s 5.8 YPA against red/yellow-rated cornerbacks last year ranked tied for 21st out of 25 wide receivers that had at least 40 targets against that level of competition. Those are not positive omens since Wayne has 10 red/yellow-rated matchups in 2011.

Wayne is moving all around the formation during training camp. Under previous regimes, Wayne exclusively lined up split wide left. In new OC Bruce Arians’ scheme, he’s learning the slot and also shifting to the right side. In theory, it will give Wayne a chance to create more favorable matchups.He is still the best wide receiver on this offense and his precision routes will assure that Luck throws at least 100 passes his way. He is a low end WR2, though, don’t mistake him for anything more.

Austin Collie:No player on the Colts missed Peyton Manning last year than Austin Collie. After coming off two straight years of scoring 170 fantasy points in PPR leagues, Collie dropped to only 111 points last year despite having a career high in targets (92).

According to the Indianapolis Star, the Colts’ new coaching staff sees Collie as “more of an asset outside, even in three wide-receiver sets.”Notable. We knew Collie had been operating as the Colts’ No. 2 receiver in two-wide sets, but assumed he’d kick back into the slot in three-receiver sets. Per beat writer Phil Wilson, Reggie Wayne has been getting snaps in the slot in three-wide sets. How Indy’s receiver corps shakes out under aggressive new OC Bruce Arians will be something to monitor closely in preseason games.

Collie actually played in the slot more last year (94%) than he did the previous two years with Manning (84%). While his concussion issues never surfaced, his quarterback situation likely gave him headaches instead.

The Colts are running a two-wide, two-tight end set as their base now. When they go three-wide, Collie will move to the slot. In other words, he projects as an every-down receiver, boosting his fantasy value significantly. Last year, Collie strictly operated out of the slot and still compiled 54 catches for 514 yards. He’ll improve on those numbers if he continues to hold off Donnie Avery and rookie LaVon Brazill.

People like Collie as a sleeper this year but the Colts face the 6th toughest schedule for fantasy WRs, but at least Collie has 5 green matchups. He would be the only player we would take of the crew, just in one of the last rounds.

UPDATE: Collie experienced another concussion in the preseason yet confirms that he has no plans to retire. LaVon Brazill gets first team reps in his place

T.Y Hilton:

Arguably the most dangerous return man in all of college football last season, the Florida International wide receiver T.Y. Hilton has found a nice landing spot with the Indianapolis Colts. The team was previously lacking a player with the ability to take any ball the distance, and with Hilton new quarterback Andrew Luck could have a new best friend.

Look for the Colts to work Hilton in the slot or in motion much of the time to work matchups. Working even more in the favor of Hilton is that he will be playing indoors on the fast track of Lucas Oil Field. Just how many touches that he will get with so many moving parts in Indy is to be determined but T.Y. Hilton could be an exciting player to keep an eye on.

Donnie Avery:

The snakebitten former 33rd overall pick in the draft, Avery racked up 100 receptions for 1,263 yards and eight touchdowns during his first two NFL seasons before tearing his right ACL in August of 2010. Avery appears entrenched as the Colts’ No. 3 receiver despite his hip injury.
Wayne and Collie are the starters. In the Colts’ two-tight end base formation, there won’t be enough snaps available for Avery to spread his wings, leaving him as a situational deep threat. Rookie T.Y Hilton has been running as the third wideout while the brittle Avery has been sidelined.

Cincinnati Bengals

A.J Green (ADP: 27) Round: 3
Mohamed Sanu (ADP: 208) Round:
Marvin Jones (ADP: 241) Round:
Andrew Hawkins (ADP: 300+) Round:
Brandon Tate (ADP: 300+) Round:
Ryan Whalen (ADP: 300+) Round:

Green is already one of the best deep threats in the league, 32% of his 111 targets came more than 20 yards downfield. Green was fourth in the NFL last season with 12 receptions of at least 30 yards and his 7.7 targets per game were good for 19th among wide receivers, and there is an opportunity to be more involved in the offense.

He does still show some flashes of being a rookie. Green’s 19 end zone targets, he caught only five (26 percent). If his rate went up to, say, just 53 percent of caught end zone balls, Green would have finished with at least 174 fantasy points, seventh most and two more than Roddy White.

Green primarily lined up as the flanker (57%), but did see time at split end (27%) and the slot (14%). Regardless of where he lines up on the field in 2012.Green caught two passes for 59 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons in the Bengals’ second preseason game. After Asante Samuel showed nice ball skills in knocking one pass away, Green put a textbook double-move on the Pro Bowl corner for a beautiful 55-yard score. Green has leapt up draft boards because of his great season last year. He clicked with Andy Dalton and need zero regression from Dalton to live up to his third round ADP. He faces the 4th toughest fantasy WR schedule in the NFL with decent individual CB matchups. He will produce as a good WR1, we just think his ADP is too high for his schedule risk.

His 5 red corner matchups featire Sean Smith, Keenean Lewis (twice), Cory Webster Brandon Carr. For comparison, last season he averaged 11.5 pts per game vs red matchups faced 5 red matchups. So prorate that over these 5 against and that makes him a 4th rounder or below.

Mohamed Sanu:

Mohamed Sanu hopped onto several radars after an impressive true freshman season and maintained that pace throughout his time at Rutgers. Sanu can make defenders miss even without straight line speed. He also displays impressive body control and is willing to make the tough catch over the middle. His yards per catch average was not spectacular but at Rutgers he was rarely asked to run deep routes. The same will likely be the case with the Bengals. He will compete for the spot opposite of A.J. Green with fellow rookie Marvin Jones, keep an eye on how that unfolds.

He projects to a T.J. Houshmandzadeh-like role as a slot/possession security blanket for Dalton. Although, Dalton envisions a receiver-by-committee approach at No. 2 wideout. Brandon Tate, Armon Binns and Sanu are all in the mix. “Right now, the way they’ve performed, I have no reservation whatsoever of anybody coming in there,” OC Jay Gruden said. “My play calling won’t alter one bit if Sanu, Armon or Tate is out there.”

ESPN’s Jamison Hensley reiterates that Jermaine Gresham will be Dalton’s No. 2 target behind Green.

UPDATE: Sanu has fallen behind Binns and Tate

Brandon Tate:

Brandon Tate opened Bengals training camp as the starting receiver opposite Green. Tate and Armon Binns are expected to take the majority of the first-team reps throughout camp. It looks like the coaches deferred to Tate’s experience edge in the initial practice. Sanu will also have a chance to force his way into the mix.

Tate entered camp as the starter opposite A.J. Green and has stuck there despite a balking hamstring of late. Armon Binns is listed as his backup, while rookie Mohamed Sanu is buried with the fourth-stringers. Both QB Andy Dalton and beat writer Joe Reedy are on the record saying they expect a rotation at the No. 2 wideout spot.

Baltimore Ravens

Torrey Smith (ADP: 77) Round: 7
Anquan Boldin (ADP: 100) Round: 9
Jacoby Jones (ADP: 257) Round:
LaQuan Williams (ADP: 300+) Round:
David Reed (ADP: 300+) Round:
Logan Payne (ADP: 300+) Round:
Tandon Doss (ADP: 300+) Round:
Tommy Streeter (ADP: 308) Round:

Smith (ankle) is inactive for the preseason game against the Lions. It’s not a concern for Smith, who resumed practicing on Sunday. He should be ready to roll for the game against the Jaguars, which will serve as the Ravens’ primary dress rehearsal for the regular season.

Consitency is a problem for Smith. He may have posted great overall metrics but that did not translate into consistent fantasy performance. After that Rams game, Smith scored three or fewer points in seven games and had another game with only five points.

Smith is also recovering from postseason double sports hernia surgery. Sports hernias don’t always heal smoothly. While he must improve as a route runner, Smith flashed the long speed and separation skills to make a 2012 leap assuming his fundamentals get better. So far, Smith appears to have avoided setbacks. Smith must refine his route running, but this will be his first full offseason as an NFL player.

He’ll be a sneaky WR3 pick in 2012 fantasy drafts. But NOT a WR2 or sleeper WR1 like some pundits are predicting. He has at best a middle of the pack SOS with a tough late season.

He has really tough individual matchups to contend with this year and that will be tough to overcome. He has 6 red corner back matchups, including Jonathan Jospeh, NNamdi and Ike Taylor twice, and that make him nothing to expect a sleeper of.

As good as he was against red/yellow-rated cornerbacks, facing 12 defenders of that caliber has to be seen as a minus. Six of the red matchups occur from weeks 4-13 (along with the Ravens bye week), so that could be a long stretch of games where starting Smith would be a risky proposition. However, he might have two good weeks out of his fist three, so plan to sell him before week 4 if you still end up drafting him

Smith might not be consistent enough to be an every week starter, but he has the makings of an excellent flex start option. That type of value places him squarely in the mid-range WR3 category, not WR2.

Anquan Boldin:

Anquan Boldin remains locked in as a starter opposite Torrey Smith. Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome has consistently talked about adding talent to the wide receiver position, but no significant moves were made there in free agency. Boldin will be 32 in October and has averaged just 57.3 yards per game in two seasons with the Ravens.

Boldin has been healthier in his first two years in Baltimore (two games missed in 2011) than his final two seasons in Arizona (five games missed), but his fantasy production has been in steady decline the last four years. Part of his decline could be the run-first nature of the Baltimore offense. The Ravens’ run ratio is one of the highest in the entire league, and Boldin’s opportunities have been limited to the extent of almost two full targets less per game from his time in Arizona.

In addition, Boldin is lining up the slot less in Baltimore (43%) than in Arizona (63%). There is still some optimism for Boldin despite his gradual decline in production, just not as a fantasy starter.

Jacoby Jones:

Jacoby Jones played in a career-high 765 snaps last year in relief of Andre Johnson. Unfortunately, it did not translate into increased fantasy success. Jones was a popular waiver wire pickup after Johnson was injured in Week 4, but did not replicate his 2010 results – in fact, he was much worse despite playing 223 more snaps and one more game.

According to CSN Baltimore, Jacoby Jones already has the Ravens’ No. 3 receiver job locked up. “This one is over,” says beat writer John Eisenberg. “It was Jacoby Jones’ job to lose, and he didn’t.” Despite an impressive offseason, Tandon Doss has failed to make waves in camp due to a hamstring injury. LaQuan Williams has made more plays than sixth-rounder Tommy Streeter, and speedy UDFA Deonte Thompson has “faded a bit lately.”

If Jones could not be a fantasy contributor in Houston with Andre Johnson out of the lineup last year, his Ravens’ prospects do not appear to be any brighter.

Cleveland Browns

Greg Little (ADP: 126) Round: 11
Mohamed Massaquoi (ADP: 240) Round:
Josh Cribbs (ADP: 258) Round:
Jordan Norwood (ADP: 300+) Round:
Carlton Mitchell (ADP: 300+) Round:
Rod Windsor (ADP: 300+) Round:
Josh Gordon (ADP: 300+) Round:
Travis Benjamin (ADP: 334) Round:

He also led all WRs with 17 missed tackles. He’s a better asset in PPR leagues as a WR 3/4, as he was only targeted in the red zone 7 times. His average depth of target also sat at 9.8, while the average in that category for WRs with more than 20 targets was 12.0.Greg Little caught four balls for 45 yards in the Browns’ second preseason game at Lambeau.

Little was held without a catch in the exhibition opener against Detroit, playing sparingly. In the second preseason game, Little dropped an easy pass over the middle but also showed Boldinian run-after-catch skills on a 24-yard gain, with two defenders draped all over him. Little is the heavy favorite to lead Cleveland in 2012 receiving. With improved quarterback play, Little should flirt with consistent WR3 value in 2012, especially in PPR formats.

UPDATE: Little has quietly had a very good camp

Mohamed Massaquoi:

Coach Pat Shurmur says Little and Mohamed Massaquoi are the Browns’ “early starters” at receiver. Little can be safely penciled in as the No. 1 wideout, but Massaquoi will have to fight off fourth-round pick Travis Benjamin.

He hasn’t been the same player since his October 2010 concussion, and turned in a thoroughly unimpressive 2011. The Browns have proven almost comically hesitant to cut the cord on disappointing players, however, so Massaquoi’s chances of winning the job can’t be discounted. Massaquoi has not lived up to expectations thus far in his career, and 2011 was another disappointing year for the Cleveland wide receiver.

Mohamed Massaquoi (concussion) returned to Browns practice surprisingly quick considering Massaquoi’s concussion history. Massaquoi is having a strong camp, but could still find himself on the roster bubble.

Josh Cribbs:

Browns WR/KR Josh Cribbs admits he’s likely in for a reduced role on offense this season. Browns beat writers have been hinting at the possibility for months. Cribbs expects to be a part of “all” special teams return and coverage units. Cribbs posted a 41/518/4 line across 567 offensive snaps last season, but won’t approach any of those numbers in 2012. He’s off the fantasy radar, save for leagues with return yardage.

Nor is there any talk about him playing wildcat quarterback, running back, or full-time wide receiver, for that matter. Cribbs is returning to his former spot as Cleveland’s special teams specialist, playing on all of its return and coverage units.

Josh Gordon:

ESPN Cleveland’s Tony Grossi projects supplemental rookie Josh Gordon as a starting wideout this season. Gordon has raw talent for the gig, but it’s questionable if he’ll be ready by Week 1. The Baylor product hasn’t played since 2010 and didn’t join the Browns until after OTAs. Picking up Pat Shurmur’s West Coast offense is going to be a challenge. We’d be slightly surprised if Massaquoi didn’t open the year opposite Little, before eventually giving way to Gordon.

UPDATE: Gordon is having great practices

Chicago Bears

Brandon Marshall (ADP: 32) Round: 3
Alshon Jeffrey (ADP: 195) Round: 16
Devin Hester (ADP: 215) Round:
Earl Bennett (ADP: 259) Round:
Johnny Knox (ADP: 300+) Round:
Dane Sanzenbacher (ADP: 300+) Round:
Devin Thomas (ADP: 300+) Round:
Eric Weems (ADP: 300+) Round:

The last time Marshall and Cutler were playing together (2008), Marshall racked up a line of 104/1265/6, with a line of 102/1325/7 in 2007. It’s clear Marshall will be the primary receiving target in Chicago regardless of the Alshon Jeffery selection. It’s also clear a change of scenery may serve Marshall well, as he had 3 year lows in targets, receptions, and catch percentage in 2011. He also had a red zone target number of 12 in 2010 with Miami, while he saw 24 red zone targets in 2008 with Denver. It will be interesting to see if Soldier Field affects him in any way, as he’s played the majority of his games in warmer weather climates.Last year their top WR in targets was Knoxx, with only 64. Forte had more targets that he did (71). Targets are good, but Marshall leads all NFL wide receivers with 35 drops over the past three seasons, according to Pro Football Focus’ data.

The Palm Beach Post liberally counts seven dropped passes on potential touchdowns alone last year. Although Marshall boasts just one season with more than seven touchdowns and has never finished higher than ninth in fantasy points, his current early-third round ADP leaves him sixth among receivers.

We love the reunion with his most productive QB and OC, but his history with drops combined with a shaky Bears o line making it hard for Cutler to get time to throw down field, mean that we would wait until the top of the third before we take Marshall.

He gets to pick on Tramon Williams twice this year as well as Munderlyn and Browner but also sees Finnegan and Verner. Keep in mind that Marshall didn’t do much with one of the single best sets of corner matchups in 2011. He had only one red matchup and four green matchups which was a better set than this year, but didn’t do much with it. Do not overvalue Cutler, he is not that good.

Alshon Jeffrey:

According to the Chicago Sun-Times, second-round WR Alshon Jeffery is “catching everything in sight” in Bears camp. Per reporter Mark Potash, Jeffery is “looking like he’s done this before in his first NFL training camp.” Potash’s glowing report comes three days after Jay Cutler hinted Jeffery was having trouble mastering the playbook, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, Jeffery — who has always been lauded for his hands, if not his athleticism — appears to have his head on straight following a shaky junior season at South Carolina. He will be the Bears’ starting flanker opposite Brandon Marshall in Chicago.

UPDATE: Big preseason for Jeffries should earn him playing time moving forward

Devin Hester:

Although currently a starting WR on the Bears depth chart, Devin Hester will return both kicks and punts for the Bears this season. The experiment of using Devin Hester more as a wide receiver the last two years under Mike Martz did not work out as planned. There was speculation that Hester might see a lesser role in the return game after the Bears added Eric Weems and Devin Thomas via free agency. That was especially the case after the coaching staff talked up Hester’s offensive role. It’s hard to believe Hester will play 50+ offensive snaps and handle most of the returns. The latter makes sense, but expect rookie Alshon Jeffrey and slot man Earl Bennett to eventually emerge at wide receiver.
Hester offers little to no upside for your fantasy team even under the most optimistic circumstances.

Earl Bennett:

Bennett entered 2011 as a possession receiver that was a candidate for a breakout year. The previous season saw more than 60% of his targets occurring within nine yards of the line of scrimmage, and he finished with a 70% catch rate. Unfortunately, a wicked hit in Week 2 knocked him out for half the season. Shortly after his return, Jay Cutler ended up being lost for the year, which took Bennett’s remaining fantasy value with him. Bennett is poised to bounce back nicely with his signal caller healthy and Brandon Marshall signed to draw coverage. No earlier than a last round pick if you take him.

San Francisco 49ers

Michael Crabtree (ADP: 118) Round: 10
Randy Moss (ADP: 122) Round: 11
Mario Manningham (ADP: 153) Round: 13
Ted Ginn (ADP: 300+) Round:
Kyle Williams (ADP: 300+) Round:
Brett Swain (ADP: 300+) Round:
A.J Jenkins (ADP: 300+) Round:

He had a slightly better fantasy season than in 2010, but more importantly, he finally cracked the 100-target threshold.In the first season of the Jim Harbaugh-Greg Roman offense, the 49ers used their wide receivers less than any other team in the NFL. Combined, all the wide receivers on the team played 1,843 offensive snaps.

The 49ers ran 1,026 plays from scrimmage, which means the average play featured 1.8 wideouts.Crabtree had 74 more targets than any other SF WR and played over 460 more snaps. Vernon Davis played 8-% more snaps than Crab, but had 11 fewer targets.

49ers OC Greg Roman and CB Carlos Rogers both insist Michael Crabtree has looked faster this training camp than ever before. Crabtree has been largely healthy during his first full NFL offseason. “He was playing last year on a bad wheel and battled his way through it,” Roman said. “I think he’s a lot healthier this year, and he certainly appears to be much quicker and faster.” Crabtree was drafted in 2009 and has never ranked better than 33rd among fantasy receivers.

Unfortunately, what we have seen with Crabtree is what we are going to get. The dynamic playmaking ability he showed at Texas Tech has not translated so far. However, it could simply be a matter of opportunity and the offensive philosophy of the 49ers. Before, when it was just him and TE Vernon Davis, they could split the targets. Now, the team has added Mario Manningham, Randy Moss and rookie A.J. Jenkins. With so many options, Crabtree could struggle to top 90 targets – making it difficult to crack the Top 40 in fantasy points. He’s a low-end WR3 again this year.

Ted Ginn:

Ted Ginn and Michael Crabtree was the 49ers’ starting receiver in their preseason opener. This comes on the heels of a report that Randy Moss has “not seen a lot of action come his way” during camp practices. “Ted’s had a great camp — really pleased with Ted,” coach Jim Harbaugh said. “He’s catching the ball, he’s blocking, he’s playing all the positions — the X, the Z, the slot. He’s doing it all. He’s running good, getting in and out of his cuts.” We suspect Ginn’s inclusion is just the coaching staff rewarding incumbent players.

Mario Manningham:

We expected Mario Manningham to have a breakout season in 2011, not Victor Cruz. In retrospect that appears laughable, as Manningham was primed to take over Steve Smith’s role in the offense. While he struggled with health and fitting into the offense, he made amends in the playoffs and in Super Bowl XLVI with the biggest sideline catch of his career. However that didn’t do any fantasy owners any good.

Manningham never topped more than 77 receiving yards during the regular season, but he was still the primary deep threat for the team. If he does not win the starting job outside opposite Michael Crabtree, it could have a huge impact on his fantasy value. He has only played in the slot approximately 8% of the time the last two years. Manningham has the worst matchups on the team if he does start, -8 red matchups are worst on SF. There are better fantasy options late in your draft than Manningham.

Randy Moss:

Randy Moss, who has been out of the league since 2010, is making a comeback attempt from his “retirement” last year. The often-troubled wide receiver is a sure fire Hall of Famer when he hangs up his cleats for good, and will attempt to crack the wide receiver rotation under head coach Jim Harbaugh.

No player in recent memory has fallen off as dramatically as Moss has. In 2008 and 2009 in New England, Moss averaged 76 receptions, 1133 yards and 12 touchdowns; in 2010 on three different teams, he managed to total 28 receptions, 393 yards and 5 touchdowns. At age 35, Moss’ best football is behind him, but if he wins the starting position over Mario Manningham – he could be a useful fantasy option. It is more likely that Moss is only a red zone option, so let someone else take the risk in 2012.

Reporting from training camp, SI.com’s Jim Trotter expects the 49ers to limit Randy Moss to 20-25 plays a game to “keep him fresh.” The plan to keep Moss’ 35-year-old legs fresh won’t win Jim Harbaugh any friends in fantasy circles, but it makes a lot of sense for a run-heavy team with new-found depth at wide receiver and a goal to be playing in late January. Although Moss remains an intriguing late-round flier, his upside takes a hit with this news.

ESPN NFC West blogger Mike Sando backs up the notion that Randy Moss’ snaps will be limited in a wide receiver rotation this season. Coach Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman have both made it clear that the 49ers don’t have a No. 1 receiver, and will split snaps among Moss, Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham, Ted Ginn and Kyle Williams. After a strong week from Manningham, reliable beat writer Matt Maiocco suggests Moss could be the team’s third-best receiver this season. Ginn and Williams project to play the fewest snaps.

UPDATE: Manningham started over Moss in the 49ers second preseason game

Minnesota Vikings

Percy Harvin (ADP: 44) Round: 4
Jerome Simpson (ADP: 214) Round:
Michael Jenkins (ADP: 300+) Round:
Bryan Walters (ADP: 300+) Round:
Devin Aromashodu (ADP: 300+) Round:
Stephen Burton (ADP: 300+) Round:
Emmanuel Arceneaux (ADP: 300+) Round:

The Vikings have a 24th ranked strength of schedule with 4 of last 6 games are red matchups out of a total 5 for the season. We really do not like anything about the Vikings passing game for fantasy purposes in 2012.

One good thing is that Harvin is expected to be used “even less” on kickoffs in 2012. The Vikings plan to increase Harvin’s offensive snaps, so he’ll be limited to returns only in critical situations. Still just 23 years old, this is only bad news for those who like him in the return game.Even if Harvin’s production regresses slightly in 2012, his floor is still the Top 20 – so draft him with confidence in the third or fourth round.

Michael Jenkins:Michael Jenkins was brought in to help offset the free agent loss of Sidney Rice to the Seahawks and had little fantasy impact in 2011. Jenkins played in 11 games before being placed on injured reserve with a knee injury. Until that point, Jenkins was having his best fantasy season per game in the last four years (9.3/Game), but was still not useful most weeks in your starting lineup. Rookie Greg Childs’ season-ending injury could be enough to secure Jenkins’ 2012 roster spot, but it’s doubtful he’ll be back in 2013. He should be off your radar.

Devin Aromashodu

Aromashoduremains without a preseason reception despite nine passes thrown in his direction. It’s worth noting because Aromashodu’s 33.3 percent catch rate last season was the lowest of any NFL receiver to play at least a third of his team’s offensive snaps. Simply put, NFL receivers don’t get any less effective. Stephen Burton and Michael Jenkins remain the clubhouse leaders to fill in for Jerome Simpson during his three-game suspension.

Saint Louis Rams

Brian Quick (ADP: 187) Round: 16
Danny Amendola (ADP: 197) Round: 16
Danario Alexander (ADP: 203) Round: 16
Chris Givens (ADP: 249) Round:
Steve Smith (ADP: 263) Round:
Brandon Gibson (ADP: 300+) Round:
Greg Salas (ADP: 300+) Round:
Austin Pettis (ADP: 300+) Round:

He has a strong chance of immediately stepping in as a starter in the Rams’ mess of a receiver corps.

Quick is starting to come on after a slow start to his rookie training camp. Brandon Gibson (undisclosed) has missed a couple days of camp, allowing Quick to take advantage of some first-team reps. After a slow start to camp, Quick has been outstanding in back-to-back practices this week.

Not relevant to fantasy value, but Quick is a vicious crack-back blocker, which will come in handy in new coach Jeff Fisher’s run-first offense.The Rams have one of the 6 most difficult strength of schedules for WRs in 102 so even if there was strong talent, we wouldn’t want to get you too excited.Nobody needs to buy multiple shares of the Rams’ offense, nor does anyone need to invest early in this team in a fantasy draft. Just target Quick as a late upside play, someone who can open the year on your fake team’s bench.Danny Amendola:

Danny Amendola’s 2011 season never got underway – he suffered a torn triceps in the first game of the season after only 37 snaps. The slot receiver-extraordinaire does not see the field that often, but when he does, QB Sam Bradford has looked his way.

Amendola (elbow, triceps) says he’s “100 percent.” The Rams didn’t want to lose Amendola, but his stats are likely in for a rude awakening in new coach Jeff Fisher’s run-first offense. Amendola is a slot receiver only, and he may not play on early downs in the new system.

Despite the Rams adding rookies Quick and Chris Givens in the NFL Draft, Amendola figures to reprise his role as the primary slot receiver after signing his restricted free agent contract for $1.972 million. Amendola will be a key target for Bradford, but the question will be how often he sees the field in new head coach Jeff Fisher’s run-first offense. He has sneaky value in PPR leagues, although you should temper expectations

Keep in mind that Fisher said that Amendola will be the Rams primary punt returner.

Danario Alexander:

Danario Alexander has not been able to stay healthy thus far in his NFL career, a knock on him that caused him to go undrafted out of Missouri in 2010. When he has been on the field, he has flashed some ability. The Rams have lacked a big- play threat down the field the last few years, and Alexander filled that role until Brandon Lloyd joined the team in a midseason trade.

Working in his favor is his familiarity with QB Sam Bradford. However, the team will be installing a new offense and Alexander is an incumbent the current front office regime is not necessarily tied to at this juncture. With the addition of rookies Quick and Givens in the NFL Draft, Alexander is a long shot to make the roster, let alone make a fantasy impact in 2012.

Steve Smith:

In 2009, Steve Smith caught 107 balls for 1,220 yards and 7 TDs. Three years later, we are left wondering whether injuries have taken that talent from him, possibly for good. Yet, there continues to be a “very strong buzz” surrounding Steve Smith at Rams training camp, according to Jason LaCanfora of CBS Sports.

With Brandon Gibson and Danario Alexander sidelined by hamstring injuries, Smith has emerged as the favorite to start opposite Amendola. Rookie Brian Quick has also come on strong after a slow camp start, opening the possibility of joining Smith and Amendola in three-wide sets. Both Smith and Amendola were the starters in the Rams preseason opener.

His single excellent season is more than Danario Alexander, Danny Amendola, Mark Clayton, Brandon Gibson, and Greg Salas can claim, and you can close your eyes and imagine a healthy Sam Bradford finding Smith to the tune of 80 catches and 1,000 yards. He makes an acceptable flier in even standard leagues.

Brandon Gibson:

Gibson opened camp running as a starter, but he’s losing ground fast to Steve Smith, Danny Amendola, and rookie Brian Quick. Gibson was second in targets in STL after Lloyd with only 65 on 609 snaps and continues to run as a starter at Rams camp.

The Rams signed two unheralded receivers Wednesday (Brandyn Harvey, Charles Gilbert) to fill in for practice. Gibson is on the bubble, so he can’t afford much more missed time.

Austin Pettis:

The Post-Dispatch suggests that suspended Rams WR Austin Pettis is not a lock to make the final roster. Pettis served the first two games of his four-game suspension last season. One camp observer notes that Pettis is making more plays than any Rams receiver in practices while Brandon Gibson and Danario Alexander continue to fall behind due to hamstring injuries. CBS Sports’ Larry Hartstein believes Pettis, Danny Amendola, Steve Smith, Greg Salas and rookies Brian Quick and Chris Givens are “all but locks” to make the team. Pettis will miss the first two games while under suspension.

New York Jets

Santonio Holmes (ADP: 95) Round: 8
Stephen Hill (ADP: 267) Round:
Chaz Schilens (ADP: 268) Round:
Patrick Turner (ADP: 300+) Round:
Jeremy Kerley (ADP: 300+) Round:
Raymond Webber (ADP: 300+) Round:
Eron Riley (ADP: 300+) Round:

What’s discouraging about this is in 2010 Holmes was targeted 91 times, but only 57 of those passes were catchable. At that rate, Holmes is going to need to see 132 targets to reach the career high 79 receptions he had in 2009. The encouraging thing is that when Holmes does get a ball he can get his hands on he generally holds onto it, as he consistently posts a strong drop rate. Now all he needs is more targets and more accuracy from the quarterback.

Looking at targets last year, Holmes was beaten out by Keller in team targets in 2011 with 98 to Keller’s 109.

Holmes has been sidelined since August 4, but the Jets have expressed no concerns over his Week 1 availability. Asked if there’s a chance Holmes might miss the regular season opener, coach Rex Ryan replied, “I don’t see that at all.” Holmes had returned to individual drills in recent practices, but couldn’t go after the setback. The Jets continue to bill Holmes’ absences as precautionary. It would still be nice to see him healthy and productive before investing a fantasy pick on an underachieving player.

No Jets WR finished in the top 30 last year…do not expect that to change. No Jets WR had a 100yd receiving game in 2011 either…do not expect that to change with Tebow in town. Add to that a bottom ten toughest projected fantasy WR scheduleUPDATE: Holmes is dealing with a hamstring issueStephen Hill:

Apparently we should be listing Cromartie here since he claims to be the Jets’ second best WR. But, Jets coach Rex Ryan expects No. 43 overall pick WR Stephen Hill to start as a rookie.

The rookie is listed as a starter on the Jets’ first preseason depth chart. The No. 43 overall pick won’t be forced to jump through hoops to “earn” his job. Hill is reportedly having a “very quiet camp,” and admitted he’s raw as a route runner. He’s unlikely to make a fantasy impact in the Jets’ dysfunctional offense as a rookie

After dropping six passes last season, Hill will have to show better hands and a wider route tree on a Jets team in need of an explosive deep threat opposite Holmes. He may need a year before making a fantasy impact.

Chaz Schilens:

The reputed owner of big-play ability, Schilens has rarely been able to flash it thanks to a steady stream of injuries. He appeared in a career-high 15 games for the Raiders last season, but was nevertheless slowed by a foot ailment, and limited to just 271 yards on 23 catches. He’s a potentially high-reward flier for the Jets, but not the legitimate No. 2 receiver they desperately need opposite Santonio Holmes.

The knock on him has been that he cannot stay healthy. Schilens only missed one game in 2011. He had a forgettable fantasy season, with exception of his Week 13 performance at Miami where he caught 6 passes on 7 targets for 89 receiving yards. Look elsewhere late in your fantasy drafts for a sleeper candidate.

Miami Dolphins

Davone Bess (ADP: 229) Round:
Brian Hartline (ADP: 250) Round:
Legedu Naanee (ADP: 300+) Round:
Clyde Gates (ADP: 300+) Round:
Marlon Moore (ADP: 300+) Round:
Roberto Wallace (ADP: 300+) Round:
Julius Pruitt (ADP: 300+) Round:

Already a young group, the 11 remaining wide receivers include three who have played more than two seasons in the NFL. One of those three, Brian Hartline, is injured and, according to coach Joe Philbin, the 25-year-old could be under pressure to make the team.

Philbin also would not rule out general manager Jeff Ireland trying to bring somebody else in to fill the void left by Johnson. “I’m sure Jeff and his staff are considering anybody and everybody,” Philbin said. “Right now, obviously as a coaching staff, [we like the] guys that we have … and we’re confident that we are going to get good receiver play here.” Gone is Marshall who was responsible for 50% of all WR targets and 30% of the team’s targets.

Davone Bess:Davone Bess has reportedly been the “receiving star of camp” over the first week. We’ve seen this sentiment from beat writers, SI.com’s Peter King and now Pro Football Focus. Keep in mind, however, that it doesn’t take much to stand out among the Dolphins’ suspect wide receiver corps. Bess owners should be pulling hard for David Garrard to win the starting job, as his production plummeted under Matt Moore last year..Mislabeled slot receiver Davone Bess actually did play in the slot 80% of the time in 2011, after only 43% the previous three years. Bess will never be mistaken for a No. 1 wide receiver, but he can offer plenty of value in PPR formats like he did in 2010. Do not forget about him late in your drafts, especially after the Dolphins failed to draft any impact wide receivers early in the NFL Draft.

Miami WRs have the second toughest fantasy WR schedule, but 5 green matchups for Bess in the slot make him own make him sneaky pick for some production.

Brian Hartline:

Brian Hartline saw a career high in snaps in 2011, but it did not translate to any more fantasy success. Hartline primarily lined up on the outside with Brandon Marshall while Devon Bess played in the slot. Marshall is now in Chicago, and the Dolphins need to replace the 30% of the team targets Marshall had in 2011.

Brian Hartline has a calf injury and was hoping to return to full practice, but is now unlikely to suit up for Miami’s second preseason game. He’s missing a golden opportunity to prove himself to the new coaching staff, and even with Chad Johnson out of the picture, wrecking his shot at earning a starting job. Hartline is probably not worth a draft pick outside of PPR leagues.

Hartline probably is not the player to step in, but will be given a chance under the new coaching regime to be the leading receiver. Hartline has the size required, although it remains to be seen if his lack of experience will hinder his progression. He has not been on the radar for many fantasy owners thus far in his career, and that is unlikely to change in 2012.

Legedu Naanee:

Legedu Naanee is listed as a starting wideout on the Dolphins’ first preseason depth chart. Davone Bess is listed as the other starter. It’s not a surprise considering Hartline (appendectomy, calf) has missed virtually all of the offseason program and training camp. Naanee, whose best asset is blocking, shouldn’t be on fantasy owners’ radar even if Hartline continues to sit.

Roberto Wallace:

The Dolphins rewarded WR Roberto Wallace for his four-catch, 71-yard preseason opener by placing him with the first-team offense in camp practice. Largely a special teamer his first two NFL seasons, Wallace is emerging as a serious sleeper for a starting job in Miami. For some background, Wallace went undrafted out of San Diego State in 2010 despite running a 4.48 at his Pro Day at 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds. He only had 73 catches in his college career. Wallace has more talent than Naanee and is on the deep-league radar.

he followed that up by starting in place of the recently released Chad Johnson, and caught just one pass for 11 yards in Friday’s exhibition game versus the Panthers.