Atlanta Falcons

Michael Turner (ADP: 31) Round: 3
Jacquizz Rodgers (ADP: 158) Round: 14
Jason Snelling (ADP: 206) Round:
Mike Cox (ADP: 300+) Round:
Antone Smith (ADP: 300+) Round:

Michael Turner proved a lot of critics wrong last year with another 1,300-yard rushing and double-digit touchdown season. He even threw in career highs in receptions and receiving yards, with 17 and 168 respectively.

HOWEVER, those 2011 totals were inflated because of a game vs the decimated the TB run defense for 172 yds and 2 TDs in week 15 late in the season. Also, six of Turner’s 11 touchdowns last season came in just three games: Week 4 at Seattle, Week 6 versus Carolina and the aforementioned Week 17 versus Tampa Bay.

In his prior 5 games (weeks 12-16) he averaged just 3.3 YPC, 53 yards a game, had fewer than 80 yds in all 5 and scored only one TD in those 5 games.

Coach Mike Smith indicated Michael Turner will have a reduced role in 2012. “We want to keep (Turner) as our feature back, but we need to make sure we some of the other guys carries as well,” said Smith, adding that he wants Turner on a “pitch count in terms of the numbers of carries.”

The cautionary tale with Turner is that he is going into his age-30 year. This is a season where he could join the long list of running backs who fell off a cliff at that age.

The reason we drop him down an entire round even though the Falcons have a decent SOS this year is because we love Jaquizz and more importantly, the Falcons already threw th eball a ton, but now installed an offense that will throw even more. Thats make a plodding bruiser of a back even less valuable in our minds.

Turner rushed three times for -3 yards and caught three passes for 14 yards against the Bengals in the Falcons’ second preseason game.

Dirk Koetter’s pass-first offense has seen 34 Matt Ryan pass attempts versus just eight carries (1.75 YPC) for Turner through two games. When the coaches go back to watch this film, they will find that Turner is an ankle weight on their fast-paced attack. If the Falcons want to operate at peak efficiency, Turner will have to come off the field more often in favor of Jacquizz Rodgers.

Jacquizz Rodgers:

12th round SLEEPER alert!

Turner is slowly being phased out of Atlanta’s offense, which is expected to be more pass heavy in 2012. Also, Turner has a lot of wear on his treads in the four years he’s been a Falcon starter, carrying the ball 300+ times three out of the last four years, which included a whopping 377 in 2008.

Rodgers is already predicted to be involved in more passing and off-screen tackle plays. Rodgers is small at 5’9 and 196 pounds, but so was a certain guy named Warrick Dunn, who ran for 900+ yards four out of the six years he was in Atlanta. If Turner goes down with an injury, Rodgers most certainly can carve out a big role.

Falcons coach Mike Smith believes Rodgers is a “three-down back” capable of handling a bigger workload than a complementary player. The Falcons are probably overrating Rodgers internally a bit, but he’s certainly a better fit for the new, up-tempo offense. “Quizz is someone that we feel is a three-down back,” Smith said. “He can come in and do the things that a three-down back does. He’s is not just a change of pace back.” Through two preseason games, Rodgers has 57 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries (4.38 YPC), and four receptions for 14 yards.

With OC Dirk Koetter increasing the use of the no-huddle offense, Rodgers and Jason Snelling should combine to equal Turner’s snaps this season.

ESPN’s Pat Yasinskas projects Falcons 2011 fifth-round pick Jacquizz Rodgers as the breakout player in the NFC South this season. Yasinskas sensed “genuine excitement” in coach Mike Smith’s tone during a recent discussion about Rodgers.

We say in the 12th, grab and stash him and he could be one of those waiver wire gems that you look like a genius for drafting. He will be deep on all our rosters this drafting season.

New York Jets

Shonn Greene (ADP: 61) Round: 6
Bilal Powell (ADP: 238) Round:
Joe McKnight (ADP: 275) Round:
Terrance Ganaway (ADP: 296) Round:
John Conner (ADP: 300+) Round:

Shonn Greene is excited about the Jets’ return to a ground-and-pound offense under new coordinator Tony Sparano. One-third of Greene’s fantasy production came in back-to-back December games after a plodding start and a mid-season deviation from the run-oriented offense.

We do not buy it. We say the only running that should happen with Greene is owners running away from him in drafts. Just look at the red zone drills in camp, Greene barely sees the balls with the “Tebow” package at Rex’s disposal. Not that without Tebow he did much anyway.

The Jets are changing their running scheme under new coordinator Tony Sparano, transitioning to a true power-blocking offense. Old OC Brian Schottenheimer frequently used zone runs, but Sparano is emphasizing “gap-scheme” plays in order to play to the strengths of alleged power back Shonn Greene. On the offensive line, the Jets will count on their front five to win man-to-man matchups. Greene played in a zone-heavy scheme at Iowa, so this will essentially be his first exposure to a true man-blocking system.

Jets have the 7th easiest schedule of all RBs, and the 3rd easiest in the fantasy playoffs…but that may benefit Tebow more than Greene.

Bilal Powell
Powell is leading Joe McKnight in the race for third-down duties. McKnight was the more productive of the two in their recent preseaons games, but worked primarily with the second-team offense, while also seeing action with the third string. If he hangs on to the job, Powell will be a deep sleeper in PPR formats

Joe McKnight:

The Newark Star-Ledger confirms Joe McKnight “appears to have been jumped” by Bilal Powell on the Jets’ depth chart. Powell operated as the Jets’ first-team back on third downs in the preseason opener, while McKnight ran with the second group only. Powell will be the No. 2 running back, and McKnight will be No. 3.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Doug Martin (ADP: 49) Round: 5
LeGarrette Blount (ADP: 125) Round: 11
Mossis Madu (ADP: 300+) Round:
Michael Smith (ADP: 340) Round:

Boise State product Doug Martin is one of the safest, most NFL-ready prospects in the 2012 NFL Draft. Nicknamed the “muscle hamster,” Martin is built with a low center of gravity and has the body to endure the punishment of the NFL game. He is also one of the rare running back prospects who has the ability to play all three downs, as he has shown to be both a capable blocker and receiver out of the backfield.

He could be a solid RB2 if he overtakes Blount and even before Blounts groin injury, that looked inevitable. Martin’s first-team reps grew exponentially from preseason game one to game two, and he’s clearly been the more dynamic player on the field, displaying better-than-expected cutting ability along with as-advertised versatility and burst.

Notable is also that Martin replaced Blount on all third downs and operated as Tampa Bay’s every-down back for the next two possessions.

Even if Blount’s injury proves minor, we like Martin to healthily lead the Buccaneers’ backfield in 2012 touches. He’d share the early-down load with Blount and handle all passing downs. That’s about Martin’s “floor,” making him quite the low-risk fantasy pick.

Schiano is a run first play caller who likes to set up the down field pass so Martin’s plug and play rookie pass blocking skills will also keep him in the game on more downs that your average rookie.

We’ve seen every one of Martin’s preseason snaps, and he hasn’t made a single mistake. He should open the season as a 14-18 touch-per-game back, and be a 20-25 touch runner by early in the year.

We aren’t excited about TB’s overall SOS, but it gets easier after a 4 week block mid-season. He could perform as a solid RB2 on your team and help you come playoff time with his 9th ranked fantasy playoff schedule.

We are bumping him up our boards on opportunity alone but wouldn’t suggest taking him and expecting RB1 production this season.

LeGarrette Blount:

The Bucs may still have high hopes for Blount on 25-30 snaps per game, but they’ve become increasingly aware of his limitations in pass protection, receiving, and short-yardage bull-dozing.

Blount confirmed his groin ailment is “not a serious injury. I just took a hit on the side. It just tweaked my groin a little bit,” Blount said. However, Blount wouldn’t guarantee he’ll be ready for Friday’s game against the Patriots. “I mean, it hurt. It’s just something we’re going to have to look into (Saturday).” Blount is already well behind rookie Doug Martin in the “race” for No. 1 duties, but missing next weekend’s regular dress rehearsal would all but cede the competition to the No. 31 pick.

Although new coach Greg Schiano likes LeGarrette Blount’s ability, he made it clear that the starter’s role will be scaled back if he doesn’t correct his fumbling issues. Blount fumbled 5 times last year, losing 3.

Blount’s “lack of commitment” was reportedly a major concern for Bucs coaches from the first day he was acquired by the team. Blount was late for work every day for two weeks after the Bucs claimed him off waivers in 2010, piling up $15,000 in fines right off the bat. Bucs brass hired him a personal driver to get him to club headquarters on time, just three miles from his house. After two weeks, the service was canceled and Blount was late again. He still needed the car service in 2011. Blount also made a habit of falling asleep in meetings. While Blount is said to have had a strong offseason, new coach Greg Schiano won’t stand for this kind of behavior going forward.

Detroit Lions

Kevin Smith (ADP: 99) Round: 9
Jahvid Best (ADP: 128) Round: 11
Mikel Leshoure (ADP: 144) Round: 12
Stefan Logan (ADP: 300+) Round:
Keiland Williams (ADP: 300+) Round:
Eldra Buckley (ADP: 300+) Round:
Joique Bell (ADP: 300+) Round:

We had been watching Detroits backfield this offseason waiting for something to develop. They have a nice 4th easiest overall Rb SOS and some good matchups to end the season.

Their offensive line is horrible in run blocking so that makes even a great schedule not too desirable. Match that with their second to last total of Rb attempts in 2011 and you’d think we would be running away.

But from a purely draft value standpoint, Smith slid up from the 10th round ADP to a 9th. Thats great value if he gets the starting role.

The Detroit News agrees with MLive.com that Smith is the “frontrunner” to open the season as the Lions’ starting running back. Beat writer Chris McCosky concedes it has as much to do with Smith’s “availability” as anything else, but believes he “hasn’t looked this physically strong since his rookie year.” MLive.com’s Anwar Richardson opined Friday that Smith looks “much stronger” than he did in 2011. Things start to change quickly when both Jahvid Best (concussions) and Mikel Leshoure (Achilles) cannot prove their health.

News of Best’s impending stint on reserve/PUP all but locks in Kevin Smith as the Lions’ primary ball carrier to open the season. Best (concussions) definitely won’t play in the first six games, and he may not play at all this season. Mikel Leshoure (Achilles’) still can’t get off the shelf and is likely to struggle after he returns from two-game suspension.

The Lions may explore a weak free agent market (Ryan Grant?), but Smith possesses three-down ability and should be locked into 15-18 touches a game to open the season. His current ADP is mid-seventh round, and should keep on rising.

Jahvid Best:

Coach Jim Schwartz says no decision has been made on sending Javhid Best (concussions) to the reserve/PUP list to start the season. The Lions are certainly not denying that it’s a possibility, however. “That would buy us time if we had to cross that hurdle,” added Schwartz. Adam Schefter reported a week ago that Best would “likely” miss at least the first six games of the season on the PUP list.

Being placed on PUP would sideline Best for at least the first six games. The Lions will likely have to rely on Kevin Smith and one of Joique Bell or Keiland Williams early in the season, with Mikel Leshoure suspended the first two weeks. Best has yet to be cleared to return to practice, and is working his way back from multiple concussions. With no guarantee of playing football this season (or in the future), Best will be difficult to pick in fantasy drafts. Look for Smith to comfortably lead Detroit’s backfield in 2012 touches.

Mikel Leshoure:

If healthy, he’ll serve as a power-back complement to starter Kevin Smith once off his two-game suspension Leshoure has enrolled in the NFL’s substance abuse program, and is being tested “several times” a week. Still rehabbing his torn Achilles’, Leshoure insisted he is “feeling great” at Lions OTAs. “I don’t know what percentage it’s at or anything because I haven’t really pushed it to the limit yet,” he said. “There’s plenty of time for that. … But I will be ready to roll by the season.”

San Francisco 49ers

Frank Gore (ADP: 36) Round: 3
Brandon Jacobs (ADP: 165) Round: 14
LaMichael James (ADP: 222) Round:
Kendall Hunter (ADP: 249) Round:
Anthony Dixon (ADP: 300+) Round:
Rock Cartwright (ADP: 300+) Round:

Keep in mind that we have loved Frank Gore here at fantasyomatic for years and we are the first to say that he is done for fantasy starter purposes. Once a workhorse in San Francisco, Gore’s legs are catching up to him quickly at 29, already three years past the average peak for running back fantasy performance.

The 49ers must have felt the same way during the draft as they took former Oregon burner LaMichael James with a second round pick.

49ers RBs coach Tom Rathman suggested one running back won’t carry the load in the backfield this season. “We need to keep (Frank Gore) healthy,” Rathman explained. ‘We need to keep him fresh so he’s an impact player for us.”

After Gore’s receptions total plummeted last season, he’s in for a decrease in carries and goal-line work with the addition of short-yardage specialist Brandon Jacobs and change-of-pace back LaMichael James. We’d advise steering clear of Gore at his current late-third round ADP.

Another sneaky stat is that Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James and Kendall Hunter are not blocking backs. Unfortunately for Gore, he is. SO if they want to limit his carries, he might end up seeing a bunch of them as he comes in to pass block. No points for good blocking.

SF runners have the 6th toughest fantasy RB schedule in 2012 and the third worst fantasy playoff SOS.

Their offensive line is great as run blockers but this will be a shared-load approach so we do not like any of them at this point.

Brandon Jacobs:

A Sunday MRI confirmed that Brandon Jacobs suffered “no major damage” to his left knee in the 49ers last preseason game. No timetable has been provided, but Jacobs clearly avoided a significant injury and should be back in a matter of weeks. Whether he’ll play in the season opener remains unclear. Jacobs has five preseason carries for 39 yards.

Should Gore miss time, though, the more explosive Kendall Hunter would remain the back to own.

Kendall Hunter:

Coach Jim Harbaugh expects Kendall Hunter to see more action on offense in 2012. “He did a fabulous job for us in two phases -– offensively and in the area of special teams,” said Harbaugh. Hunter played 28 percent of offensive snaps last year compared to 70 percent for Frank Gore. It would be fair to expect a 10 percent swing to keep Gore healthy down the stretch in his age-29 season.

Hunter broke significantly more tackles per carry than Gore, averaged 2.6 yards after contact, and earned a better PFF grade. Unfortunately, the 49ers drafted LaMichael James, a back with an identical physical profile and superior collegiate resume. Now that this is a four-way committee with Brandon Jacobs also in the mix, it’s best to stay away from 49er running backs.

Hunter “has enjoyed a tremendous camp” and will play a significant role this season. Beat writer Matt Maiocco believes the 49ers will find a way to get the ball in rookie LaMichael James’ hands a handful of times per game, but notes that Hunter is still the second-best back on the roster. If Frank Gore misses extended time due to injury this season, the play-making Hunter is a lock for RB2 value even with James and Brandon Jacobs in the backfield.

LaMichael James was carted off the field with a left foot injury in the fourth quarter of the 49ers preseason game against the Texans. The injury appeared to be to James’ left foot or ankle. A second-round pick out of Oregon, James had four carries for 19 yards before exiting, playing behind Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, and Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs was carted off earlier in the night with a possibly severe left knee injury.

Anthony Dixon:

According to CSN Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco, Brandon Jacobs was signed in large part because the 49ers “don’t have confidence in” Anthony Dixon and view Kendall Hunter as a “change-of-pace” back.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Isaac Redman (ADP: 70) Round: 6
Rashard Mendenhall (ADP: 145) Round: 13
Jonathan Dwyer (ADP: 256) Round:
Baron Batch (ADP: 300+) Round:

With Rashard Mendenhall being the anti-Peterson in terms of healing, Redman got early buzz as an intriguing fantasy option. Redman’s ADP started dropping fast. Shelved by groin and hip injuries at Steelers camp, Redman has stood idly by while Jonathan Dwyer (10 carries, 83 yards) and rookie Chris Rainey (14 touches, 89 yards) have made strong cases for early-season roles.

Redman suggested that the hip injury that temporarily sidelined him at Steelers camp could be a season-long issue. The injury has led to pain in Redman’s groin. He doesn’t need surgery, but may have to play through discomfort all year. “I’m not really sure how the hip is going to hold up or if it’s going to hurt at all, or if I’m going to be fine,” Redman said. “… It’s pretty much a pain-tolerance thing. It might nag me throughout the year. I’m just going to have to fight through.”

His window of fantasy value has been cut to three games with Rashard Mendenhall due back after the Steelers’ Week 4 bye, and it now sounds like Redman may not even be 100 percent during that span.

Steelers GM Kevin Colbert all but guaranteed Mendenhall would begin the year on reserve/PUP. Isaac Redman should lead a three-man committee with Jonathan Dwyer and Chris Rainey for the season’s first month, with Mendenhall coming into the picture earlier than expected.

We recently grabbed Redman in the 10th round in a recent experts league draft, but cannot wait for waivers to open so we can drop him.

Rashard Mendenhall:

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Steelers activated Rashard Mendenhall (knee) from PUP in order to “get him back into football shape” and prepare him to play in October. Schefter says it would be a “stretch” to believe Mendenhall will have any impact in Pittsburgh’s three September games. Mendenhall’s return will throw another wrench into Isaac Redman’s fantasy value, which at this point looks limited to a three-week stretch against the Broncos, Jets, and Raiders.

Steelers GM Kevin Colbert believes Mendenhall could be ready to contribute by “Week 5 or Week 6.” “Whether he plays in those first six weeks we don’t know,” said Colbert, “But obviously, we feel there’s a chance that could happen. Be it Week 5 or Week 6, that could be a difference.” Colbert’s comments make it clear Mendenhall’s surprise activation wasn’t made with September contributions in mind. Isaac Redman should lead a three-man committee with Jonathan Dwyer and Chris Rainey for the season’s first month, with Mendenhall coming into the picture in early October.

Jonathan Dwyer:

Steelers RB Jonathan Dwyer rushed eight times for 43 yards in the team’s second preseason game. He’s up to ten carries for 83 yards in two preseason games. Dwyer displays little quickness and shake, but he has great long speed for a big back and is really difficult to tackle with a full head of steam. The Steelers have run blocked well against the Colts and Eagles so far. Although he won’t be a fantasy option, Dwyer could very well eat into Isaac Redman’s early-season workload.

Green Bay Packers

James Starks (ADP: 101) Round: 9
Cedric Benson (ADP: 102) Round: 9
Brandon Saine (ADP: 200+) Round: 16
Alex Green (ADP: 248) Round:
John Kuhn (ADP: 265) Round:

Cedric Benson seemed to be waiting longer than expected to be signed by an NFL team this offseason. Green Bay could have picked up its option on Ryan Grant, but went with Benson instead.

Coach Mike McCarthy is confident that Benson will be “a really good fit” for the Packers’ zone-based running scheme. Benson is more of a power back than a one-cut-and-go type, but the Bengals used quite a bit of inside zone last year. “I really like his inside running style,” McCarthy said.

Sure the thought is to stay away from GB running backs in fantasy due to their low rushing volume. It seems like GB led the NFL in pass attempts in 2011, but in fact they were no better than 15th. Yes, they were 28th in RB attempts but were also 20th in RB targets.

The packers have a top ten schedule for fantasy RBs, top 6 for the fantasy playoffs and face exceptionally weak run defense personnel. MacCarthy has been experimenting with single back sets late in the preseason so perhaps a shift is on the way. We still like Green to emerge as a factor back late in the season once his pitch count in lifted.

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel considers Benson the Packers’ “probable” starter for Week 1 against the 49ers.

James Starks (turf toe) is questionable for the opener, and Alex Green isn’t ready to handle a full workload. The Packers like what they saw out of Benson at his first practice. He’s worth a look as a low-end RB3 or RB4 in fantasy leagues, although we wouldn’t get our hopes up for consistent production with Green looming.

Benson wouldn’t excel on stretch plays to the perimeter, for now, Green and Benson are the favorites for early-season touches.

Alex Green:

Packers RB Alex Green appears to have turned the corner in his recovery from ACL surgery.
He had no problem running all the routes required from running backs during minicamp. Then, while starting the Packers’ second preseason game, Alex Green rushed four times for 16 yards against the Browns.

We’d have to go back and chart it officially, but we believe Green was on the field for every single Packers’ first-team possession, of which there were three.

Benson (just signed) and Starks (turf toe) didn’t dress, so the “start” for Green was expected. There is still some feeling he could end up as Green Bay’s 2012 primary back. Green will need to get better in blitz pickup — he blew one against Cleveland — but he can clearly hold his own in the passing game and has a decent amount of juice as a ball carrier.

We also attended three Packer training camp practices this month and saw tons of Green. We liked his fit in the offense.

Vic Ketchman of the Packers official website believes it’s “obvious the Packers are really counting on” Green to make an “impact” this season. Packers acknowledged that Green is still on a pitch count and will be for a bit as he is just 8 months removed from ACL surgery.

GB has the 8th easiest schedule for all fantasy RBs. If Benson doesn’t make it this far, Green could be waiver gold during the mid season. The only problem is that the schedule toughens up a bit to end the season but they do have DET and TEN in the playoffs)

John Kuhn:

The Packers typically used their fullback Kuhn in goal line situations, where he had one or two carries in 11 games last season.

Over the first ten games of the season he had just nine carries and three touchdowns. Then James Starks suffered an injury, and he had 22 carries in the last seven games, and just one touchdown. He moved to halfback in 2010 as well due to injuries.

On 64.2% of the pass plays he was in for, he ran a pass route. He had zero targets in two games, one target in ten games, and two targets in five games. He caught 80% of the balls thrown his way although three of his four incompletions were drops.

Packer fans love Kuhn because his name sounds cool when you say it, but he it nothing more than a vulture for fantasy purposes.

James Starks:

RBSOS: 11 | RB PLAY: 6| RB Att: 28 RB Targets: 20| Run D vs Rank: 4| Oline Rush Block: 13

With Ryan Grant out of the picture, Starks was preparing himself to be the Packers’ unquestioned starting running back. Then he continued to underwhelm during camp.

Then he fumbles his first preseason touch and dropped his first preseason target and it got uglier from there. Now battling turf toe, Packers coach Mike McCarthy says that Starks is still “a couple of weeks” away from returning.

Starks’ case of turf toe appears to have been pretty significant, and his status for Week 1 is murky. Meanwhile, Alex Green got all of the first-team tailback reps in Green Bay’s second preseason game, and McCarthy was impressed with Cedric Benson’s fresh legs in his first practice with the team.

We are comfortable completely ignoring Starks for fantasy purposes and look to see Benson or Green take advantage of the Packers great fantasy schedule in 2012.

Brandon Saine:

ESPN Milwaukee believes RB Brandon Saine is the favorite for third-down work in Green Bay’s backfield. Although Saine is a pedestrian runner and receiver, he’s certainly ahead of Starks in pass protection. Fullback John Kuhn also projects to see some third-down snaps.

Cincinnati Bengals

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (ADP: 60) Round: 5
Bernard Scott (ADP: 209) Round:
Brian Leonard (ADP: 276) Round:
Cedric Peerman (ADP: 300+) Round:
Aaron Brown (ADP: 300+) Round:
Dan Herron (ADP: 325) Round:

We were starting to like BGE early in the preseason as a sleeper. Since Marvin Lewis took over as Bengals coach in 2003, his lead running backs have averaged 1,124 yards, eight touchdowns and 282 carries a season. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has never had more than 229 carries in a season and has also never fumbled.

Those Bengals averages (1,124 yards and eight scores) combined with no fumbles and assuming no receiving yards would have been worth 160 fantasy points, or 15th among running backs, just 10 points out of the top 10.

Among running backs with at least 30 red zone carries last season, only Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch had a higher yards-per-carry average in the red zone than Green-Ellis (2.72). Only five teams ran the ball in the red zone more than the Bengals last season.
46. Green-Ellis had 11 and 13 touchdowns, respectively, the past two seasons, with all but one coming from the red zone.

According to Pro Football Weekly, BGE is expected to get the majority of carries in the Bengals’ offense.

However the reason we dropped him down a roun dis because his offensive line has been destroyed with injury in the preseason and it will impact their 2012 ratings a ton. They started off only 14th overall in run blocking, but with injury they could have no floor.

BGE is a value if he drops all the way to the 8th, but before then its too risky.

Bernard Scott:

The Bengals want Bernard Scott more involved, but not to the extent that he’s a feature back.

We suspect Scott will start out as the 1B to Green-Ellis’ 1A, but it’s a long season. BJGE doesn’t have the talent to keep the job week-in and week-out in a lesser offense against defenses that will no longer be primarily in nickel and dime formations.

According to the Bengals’ website, OC Jay Gruden will employ a “running back by committee” approach this season. Bengals.com’s Geoff Hobson says the “The Bell Cow is extinct” at Paul Brown Stadium, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis will rotate with Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard. The Cincinnati Enquirer has also called the Bengals’ backfield a “by-committee approach.” It’s a situation to avoid in fantasy leagues. If forced to choose between Bengals ball carriers with ADP in mind, we’d take Scott at 200.

New England Patriots

Stevan Ridley (ADP: 75) Round: 7
Shane Vereen (ADP: 196) Round: 16
Danny Woodhead (ADP: 237) Round:
Kevin Faulk (ADP: 300+) Round:

Stevan Ridley and Shane Vareen are still battling for the top spot on the depth chart. Vereen had just 20 yards on 10 carries against Philadelphia, but helped himself by not dancing in the backfield, protecting the football, and showing well in the passing game. He’s closed the gap on Ridley, who is coming back to earth after a hot start to camp.

Even though Ridley played only 200 snaps in his rookie season, he had 10 runs of 15 or more yards in 2011. Shane Vereen and Danny Woodhead combined for only one. Now with BenJarvus Green-Ellis gone to Cincinnati, that number is sure to rise. Ridley’s lone drawback as a rookie was ball security, but that’s a fixable problem and he’s got natural tools to be a big-time player. The Pats won’t suddenly veer from a committee approach, but Ridley is the best bet for lead back duties in 2012. We still prefer Ridley as the significantly better fantasy asset thanks to his projected goal-line role

The Patriots offensive line is having lots of troubles in the passing game but are very good in the run game.

The Pats RBs will face a block of brutal matchups to end the year. You do not want to be counting on one of them as a low end RB1 or an RB2. they are an RB3 that we would only take after about 10 other RB3s

They start off against TEN and ARI as patsies and could look good as trade bait. That might be it for Ridley though…waiver darling, then he sees bottom 5 fantasy playoffs and bottom 10 final three regular season matchups. Get rid of him before be faces BUF, SEA, NYJ 2xs and then SF in the fantasy postseason.

Shane Vereen:

Shane Vereen saw a “dramatic” increase in overall and first-team reps in last week’s practice. Ridley’s snaps were cut back after putting the ball on the ground in consecutive practices. Vereen has turned it on of late after a slow start to camp, looking smooth, fast and more comfortable. Considering his late-season 2011 benching for fumbles, Ridley can’t afford to give the coaching staff a reason to expand Vereen’s role

Vereen carried the ball 10 times for just 20 yards, but hauled in four of five targets for 29 yards in Monday night’s preseason game vs. the Eagles.
Ridley handled seven carries and saw two targets. Both backs were playing behind several backup offensive linemen, while facing the Eagles’ starting defense. Although neither impressed in the rushing game (combined 2.2 YPC), Vereen out-shined Danny Woodhead (3 targets, 0 receptions, 1 drop) in the passing game. Ridley and Vereen are on track to share tailback duties.

Danny Woodhead:

Woodhead exceeded 10 offensive touches in just one game last season — Week 1. He’ll remain a lightly used back in 2012.

New Orleans Saints

Darren Sproles (ADP: 40) Round: 4
Mark Ingram (ADP: 83) Round: 7
Pierre Thomas (ADP: 131) Round: 11
Korey Hall (ADP: 300+) Round:
Chris Ivory (ADP: 300+) Round:

Sproles led all NFL running backs in yards per pass route in 2008 and 2009 as a Charger, but it was not until the Saints fully committed to making him a key part of the offense that he exploded in the fantasy realm. Sproles led all runners with 724 receiving yards and led the NFL in runningback targets. He was also tied for 7th out of ALL PLAYERS in red zone targets in 2011

In addition to breaking the league’s single-season all-purpose yards record, Sproles led all NFL backs in third-down receiving. Factoring in volume and efficiency, Sproles tops Ray Rice and Darren McFadden as the best receiving back in the game. His first season with the Saints produced a 10th-place fantasy running back finish.

Normally we would say that his fourth toughest schedule of all fantasy RBs would make us drop him hard in our ranks. However we look at Sproles as more of a receiver and the Saints enjoy the 3rd easiest WR schedule in the NFL this season.

Since he actually led all Saints pass catchers in targets last year and almost became the first RB to to score more points through the air than on the ground in 2011 with 86 receptions and 87 touches- we bump him UP our boards and make him a solid second rounder in PPR formats.

Its likely that 1100-1200 yards from scrimmage should happen, even though his 6 YPC will likely regress. Even if he drops that 1YPC, then thats still only a hundred or so less yards this season.

Grab him in standard leagues as a promising RB2 and in PPR as a low end RB1.

Mark Ingram:

Yes we like Sproles, but we see him as a major part of the passing game. Looking at just the Saints runners, the third worst fantasy RB schedule scares us and the 5th worst fantasy playoff schedule gives us even more pause.

Ingram has undergone three surgeries over the past three offseasons, two on his left knee. While Joe Vitt is confident Ingram will be ready by Week 1, the durability concerns won’t help Ingram’s chances of experiencing a bigger workload.

Ingram had previously insisted his early-May knee scope was “as minor as it gets,” and guaranteed he’d be ready for the start of practices. He’ll be a candidate for the active/PUP list, from which he can be activated at any time.

Although a high percentage of short yardage carries will deflate anyone’s stats, Mark Ingram struggled as a rookie in the same role that saw Chris Ivory flourish. Ingram averaged 2.06 yards after contact, and he broke roughly half as many tackles per carry as Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles. Ingram was also decidedly one-dimensional and makes for a poor selection in PPR formats. While Sproles and Thomas both averaged over two yards per route run, Ingram notched a miniscule 0.65 and saw only 12 targets. It may even be that despite his draft status, Ingram lacks the athleticism of an NFL starter. After running a slow 4.62 in the 40, he recorded a disastrous 11.75 Agility Score. Having spent so much draft capital to acquire Ingram, the Saints will probably force feed him around the goal line in 2012, but there will be better backs available at his ADP.

The 2011 first-round pick should be red-flagged in 2012 fantasy drafts.

Pierre Thomas:

Thomas took the drafting of Mark Ingram as incentive to produce rather well in 2011. Thomas has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over the last four seasons. Thomas also excels as a receiver. Even with Sproles’ posting his insane numbers in the passing game, Thomas recorded 425 receiving yards and actuallybeat Sproles in yards per route. If he falls in your draft, Thomas is a good player to target, but expect the Saints to go out of their way to prove the Ingram pick was not a mistake.

Cleveland Browns

Trent Richardson (ADP: 21) Round: 2
Montario Hardesty (ADP: 243) Round:
Brandon Jackson (ADP: 260) Round:
Owen Marecic (ADP: 300+) Round:
Chris Ogbonnaya (ADP: 300+) Round:

Trent Richardson is this year’s rookie hype leader. Compared to Adrian Peterson in talent, he was drafted by the Browns and is inserted into a previously dismal offense. But before you get too excited abotu ANY rookie, consider that in the last three seasons, no rookie RB has averaged over 80 yds a game and played at least 10 games.

Richardson had been going in the first round of very early season drafts. Unfortunately he

Richardson’s initial timetable had him back for Week 1, and he’s appeared to remain ahead of schedule. We’d still like to see T-Rich at least practicing. He’s not going to play in any preseason games, and his early-season workload is a major concern. We tend to doubt he’ll play on passing downs at all this year.

Brandon Jackson may enter the game on some third downs as a blitz-protection specialist, but Richardson should flirt with 325-350 touches.

Richardson was drafted behind the 26th rated run blocking offensive line , down from 23rd at end of 2011 season. He faces a decent SOS (11th) but the run specialist personnel he will see this year are in the top 10 in the league, which could make his schedule get tougher.

Don’t freak about about his division. He does not face PIT and BAL twice and will face BAl when they are still without Suggs.

In eight games where he was healthy enough to play more than half the snaps last season, Peyton Hillis – an inferior talent to Richardson – averaged 18 carries and 3.5 targets-per-game. Under the same parameters in 2010, Hillis averaged 18 carries and 4.5 targets-per-game. Richardson will step into a very similar role and should be even more efficient.

Speaking of efficient, Richardson has only fumbled one time in his entire career and hasn’t fumbled in his last 550 carrer carries.

We like that he has dropped from his first round ADP, but will still require a second round grab if you want him. We suggest only taking him as your second RB if that’s your plan.

Montario Hardesty:

ESPN Cleveland’s Tony Grossi expects Brandon Jackson — not Montario Hardesty — to be Trent Richardson’s primary backup. The Browns’ top beat writer, Grossi hesitated to even call Hardesty the Browns’ third-string back, saying “let’s see if he stays healthy first.” Grossi speculated last month that Hardesty’s roster spot is in danger. Hardesty should remain in the Browns’ plans as long as he looks healthy during camp, but neither Jackson nor Hardesty will have fantasy value behind expected workhorse Richardson.

Hardesty would be a candidate to “handcuff” Trent Richardson. It remains to be seen which back will handle primary third-down duties in Cleveland.