Welcome to part THREE in a series of FantasyDraft Prep articles leading up to training camp (read part one -WR, here and part two- QB here). This week the focus is on fantasy TEs.
We ranked all 32 teams based on their Fantasy Points Against Strength. We will break down each team and profile each TE candidate. You will also find helpful information on 2009 Yards Per Attempt, 2010 Strength of Schedule and 2010 Fantasy Playoff schedules.
Don’t worry about Fantasy Points Against data here being grabbed just from 2009. The algorithm used here at fantasyomatic.com has been hard at work cranking out “defensive ranking against fantasy position” projections all spring.
The “FPA” values you see here include 2010 adjustments for the draft additions, free agency additions, coaching changes in the offseason, defensive scheme updates, daily fantasy news updates and up to the day depth charts. In addition, the FPA values are also weighted against their strength of opponents in 2009 and then again against their strength of opponents in 2010.
Each week we will post a new skill position until we deliver a complete skill position Draft Sheet for your late summer drafts.
If you want FantasyoMatic algorithm perspective on your draft picks, hit us up at @FantasyoMatic on Twitter or join our Facebook discussion group here.
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Legend:
Team Rank: All teams are listed in order of our FPA Score rank. We start with the SOS score of 1-32 pts per week (this means the #1 ranked WAS will have the least resistance against their position all season. #32 ranked CLE will face the toughest opponents against their position). The ranking is NOT 2009 finish, but rather our own proprietary ranking system. In addition, we break down seperate scores for Fantasy Playoffs (14-16) and the last 3 games of the season (making your playoffs). Extra attention given to fantasy playoffs.
Then all three scores are analyzed together and weighted by RSZ% (see below) to give us our proprietary “FPA Score. Strength of Schedule and System Scoring Potential accuracy unlike any ranking process you will see anywhere.
We give extra weight to any TE on on a team that has appeared in the Red Zone in 2009 20 or more times (20 is league median), then any team that has thrown to the TE in the Red Zone for TDs in 30% or more of their RZ conversions.
Tip: Draft only players from the top 12 and ignore all other players.
YPA: Yard Per Pass Attempt in 2009. This includes pass interference penalties because the player was involved in a pass route attempt. (Thanks KC Joyner) This is a good measure of the player being involved in long pass plays in the teams offense as well as potentially “Yards After Catch”, which benefit the TE. In TD only leagues this doesn’t matter but in performance scoring leagues this is gold.
Tip: Always take a player with a higher YPA when making draft decisions.
ADP: Average Draft Position in 2010 early drafts. This average is across about 20 of the top Fantasy Football sites and all their mock and expert drafts. (Thanks Fantasy Football Nerd). This is a great indicator of where other owners in your league may draft each player, NOT a ranking for our recommended draft positions. That Draft Sheet is coming this summer. This helps you see where players are most likely going to be available in your drafts.
Tip: Use ADP to determine in what order to draft your players since players with a higher ADP will likely go fast in your draft.
Chart: Each chart is an exclusive look at the Fantasy Points Against ranking for each opponent for each week, given a 16 week season. The number reflects the rank of the opposing team factoring in the fantasy points given up to TEs. This is NOT based on 2009, this is fresh 2010 rankings provided our prognostication engine and can only be found here. Every other site or magazine you see is using straight 2009 totals, not the 2010 adjustments. It reflects over 100 hours of adjustments for scheme changes, coaching changes, injury returns, drafted immediate impact starters and weighted by the performance of the team over the last 5 weeks of the 2009 season only.
In the case of TE, we also factor in the number of times Targeted in the Red Zone, the specific Linebackers on the opposing defenses and their strength in pass protection and weight given specifically to pass catching TEs are paired against those LBs, not corners.
Tip: The lower the number, the better the start. #1 is the best matchup that week in the NFL, #32 is the toughest. BYE weeks are represented as gaps in the chart.
*Note: Pay attention to the HIGH end of each chart. You will notice that WAS’s chart caps out at 27, his highest rank against. Other players may cap out at a 32 HIGH (Actually 34, because the chart adds +2 relief).
*New* Red Zone Score Percentage: With the TE position, it is extra important to see how much the team uses the TEs in the Red Zone. We wanted to quantify that. Within each breakdown you will see that we use a term we refer to as “Red Zone Score %” (RZS%). This is a percentage we calculated by tabulating all of the team’s Red Zone scores in 2009 and gave credit to the TE if he was involved in a TE TD reception. This percentage indicates what percent of the team’s overall Red Zone scores were credited to the TE and therefore the TEs System Scoring Potential. (TE TD/ Team Red Zone TDs).
What to Look for: Players with high YPA and trends of low FPA ranks against especially during weeks 14-16 (fantasy playoffs). A good combination of low ADP and a high rank in FPA with a lot of involvement in the offense= value. Also watch for mentions of a high RZS% because this means the TE is involved in lots of Red Zone scoring.
Player Name Legend:
- PLAYER NAME (“Yards Per Pass Attempt” YPA #.#) “Average Draft Position” ADP: ### - ##% “Percentage of TE TD via Pass in Red Zone in 2009″ of ## “Red Zone Chances in 09″
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1. 
(FPA score: 81.9)
- Chris Cooley (YPA 8.3) ADP: 113 – 42% of 46
- Fred Davis (YPA 7.4) ADP: 215 – 42% of 46
WAS threw the 13th most yards to TEs in 2009, but now Mike and Kyle Shanahan are in town and they brought in a QB in Donovan McNabb that has made his living throwing to TEs. Last year McNabb threw 969 passing yards and 8 TDs to TEs and WAS threw 850 and 11. WAS had the league’s second highest TE RZS% (46% of all their Red Zone TDs went to TEs). Kyle Shanahan drew up enough plays to TEs in HOU last season to total 912 yds and 6 TDs.
Mike Shanahan‘s last two DEN teams posted 38 passes / 24 runs and then 32 passes / 26 runs per game. Higher pass to rush ration then most people may think. Plus, offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan ran the passing offense in HOU that led the NFL in passing in 2009. These certainly appear to be good indicators for McNabb and his pass catchers.
Chris Cooley “may see an expanded role in the offense” according to the Washington Post. Cooley was learning “everything all the receivers run” during OTAs. Cooley presents some risk, but WAS may have to rely heavily on him due to their thin WR situation. He’s also going to get more mismatch opportunities working out of the slot if they use him as they did in OTAs. Cooley has experience with new systems, after all he has learned several of them due to multiple coaching changes during his tenure at WAS.
There is danger of a timeshare here since Fred Davis really took advantage of his opportunities when Cooley was out last year. However the same was said of Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett before last season. You should note that Cooley has been lining up out wide in some packages and Davis has been used as an in-line TE.
“The success Houston had last year with Owen Daniels before he got hurt is something that we’d like to do in this offense,” said McNabb, “as well as what Dallas does with (Jason) Witten.” Kyle Shanahan was the Texans’ playcaller when Daniels was lighting up the league prior to his ACL tear.
Davis comes with a much cheaper 17th round price tag while Cooley is a 9th. Cooley is much cheaper than your Clark (4th), Witten (5th), Gates (4th) types so if you miss on one of those, feel good about taking Cooley as a low risk / high reward option. He has a stretch of 5 out of 6 games against bottom-end teams leading into your fantasy playoffs. Look closely as they do not meet a single bottom 5 team against fantasy TEs.
2. 
(FPA score: 81.9)
- Visanthe Shiancoe (YPA 7.4) ADP: 120 – 30% of 69
Visanthe Shiancoe was one of the NFL’s leading red zone targets TE in 2009 while MIN tied for 1st in the NFL in TE TDs (13). Shiancoe had 11 of those. He also scored 7 of those TDs inside the 10 yard line. MIN had the 6th highest TE RZS% (30% of all Red Zone TDs went to TEs).
No reason to think that will change with Brett Favre coming back for another year and part of the attraction for Brett being that the offense will stay the same. However, if Favre somehow decides not to come back, remember that Shiancoe scored the third most TDs of all TEs in 2008 (7) without Favre. He has slightly less value in a PPR league as he was only 12th in TE targets in 2009. TD leagues value him even higher.
The biggest value for Shiancoe in 2010 is his stellar fantasy playoff matchups. MIN has the #1 fantasy schedule of ALL TES IN THE NFL. They play NYG, CHI and PHI and those three franchises have been some of the consistently worst defenses against opposing TEs for the past two years.
Keep your eyes on a contract situation here as the Vikings have Shiancoe under contact for two more seasons, but it’s believed that the TE wants to be among the top 5 salaried players at the position. However, the Vikes have the small matter of negotiating Adrian Peterson‘s new deal to attend to before Shiancoe. As such, a new deal for the TE is not expected any time soon.
Shiancoe can be had in the 10th round so with him it’s safe to say you could get a potential top-10 TE well after you already locked down your starters in all other positions. That is a great value for a red zone beast like Shiancoe.
3. 
(FPA score: 84.3)
- Owen Daniels (YPA 10.0) ADP: 87 – 12% of 63
If Owen Daniels had been able to finish his 2009 season, he was on pace for a career best 89 catches for 1, 136 yards and 11 TDs. That would have been good enough to outscore Dallas Clark. Instead, a week 8 ACL injury sent him to the sidelines.
Fantasyomatic.com had a chance to speak with Owen Daniels this offseason and he said everything went “very smoothly” with his surgery. HOU grabbed another TE from Wisconsin, Garrett Graham, in the draft as a little insurance in case Daniels cannot come back fully from his torn ACL. If he does, he will be in a rare group of players who been able to overcome such an injury. Plus, Daniels’ fantasy success has a lot to do with his ability to get downfield so he will need strong wheels to be the O.D of old.
Daniels had a YPA of 10.0 in 2009 and a 13.0 Yards Per Catch and had the third highest Yards After the Catch of all TEs last year. Th e”old” O.D is worth being excited about.
You need to love a Red Zone TE, and although HOU threw to the TE in only 12% of their 63 Red Zone possessions, Daniels saw more red zone targets in 2009 than in his entire 16 game 2008 season.
If he can come back healthy, he has a great season to look forward to. HOU has the 3rd easiest schedule for TEs in the league in 2010. He has a late season run of 7 out of 8 games against bottom half defenses against TEs. He also has 3rd lightest fantasy playoff schedule for TEs.
Despite a recent setback in his recovery from a torn right ACL, Owen Daniels said Sunday that he’ll “be ready to go for September.”
His ACL issues have him going in the early 7th round of summer drafts, and if you can get him there, you should have strong TE1 value if Daniels stays healthy.
4. 
(FPA score: 86.0)
- Jason Witten (YPA 8.3) ADP: 58 – 8% of 50
The knock on Jason Witten has always been that he is not part of the DAL Red Zone offense. With 8% of their 50 RZ visits in 2009, you have to believe it. The hope in 2009 was that the departure of T.O and his 36 red zone targets would open things up for Witten, but it didn’t happen.
Coach Wade Phillips admitted that the Cowboys made a mistake by not using Jason Witten in the red zone last season.
Witten was used as an in-line blocker in the red zone far too often, and ended up with just 2 TDs. The Cowboys are focusing on red-zone offense this offseason and Witten, who caught 94 balls last season, has the upside with fantasy value.
He finished second in TE receptions in 2009, and third in receiving yards. He was 5th overall in targets. This gives him higher PPR value even if his red zone looks do not improve. He only saw 7 RZ targets in 2009.
Consider Witten a No. 1 Fantasy TE again this year, and he’s worth drafting as a Top 5 player at his position. He should be selected beginning in Round 5 or 6 on Draft Day if he is still there, since he could have 4th round value.
He could be a decent low end TE1 since DAL has the #1 easiest regular season schedule for TEs with 7 matchups against bottom 1 teams against TEs.
5. 
(FPA score: 88.7)
- Dallas Clark ADP: 38 – 20% of 53
Dallas Clark produces like a slot receiver. You can’t go wrong with his targets. In 2009, Clark had 100 catches for a career-high 1,106 yards (11.1 avg.) and 10 touchdowns (6th for TEs). He scored or had at least 80 receiving yards in 10 of his 16 games (excellent for a tight end) and latched on another 18 receptions for 180 yards and a touchdown in the playoffs. He was only targeted 14 times in the Red Zone and still produced 10 TDs overall. 20% of IND’s Red Zone TDs went to TEs.
Only three tight ends had over 1,000 yards last season, but only one of those three had 10-plus touchdowns. That would be Clark, who should be an impact player again in 2010.
While he previously failed to top 1,000 yards in his last six seasons, many see his 2009 numbers as a peak, especially with so many other threats in the Colts’ offense to draw attention away from him. True, those same threats might take opportunity away statistically, but Clark is simply a WR2 in TE1 clothing.
Keep in mind his amazing 2009 season came as a result of injury to WR Anthony Gonzales, who will be back in 2010. Clark is unlikely to reproduce his 2009 season since Gonzales is back. Also 2009 Clark owners remember that towards the end of the 2009 season, defenses started to key on him as a receiver. However, even a slight drop in receptions and TDs still makes him a strong TE1.
In 2010 Clark will enjoy the 5th best TE schedule in the league and the 7th overall TE playoff schedule. Expect a strong start for Clark and possible trade value if you want to cash in on a 2 for 1 trade for this early season stud.
6. 
(FPA score: 89.0)
- Brent Celek (YPA 9.2) ADP: 70 – 24% of 52
Brent Celek exploded in the Red Zone in 2009, mainly due to the issues at RB for PHI. Luckily, not much has changed in the running game going into 2010.
Celek finished second among tight ends last season in catches of 20 yards or more and PHI was 9th in TE RZS% (24%).
Only Antonio Gates (18) had more plays of 20 yards or more than Celek (16). He finished 7th in TE receiving yards and 9th in TE TDs. The Eagles are going back to a more traditional West Coast passing scheme under Kevin Kolb, but the seam will still be open for a Celek.
In just 2 games w/ Kolb, TE Brent Celek averaged 100+ yds/game (up from 75/game w/ McNabb). Kolb targeted Celek 20 times in those 2 games, 5 of which came in the Red Zone. Kolb’s roomate on the road is set up to build on last year’s breakout.
Celek and Kolb are BFFs, and it reportedly showed during minicamps. The two were in sync all spring and others have speculated that Celek could push for 100 catches. A stretch, but Celek did catch 76 balls last year. He’s a rock solid TE1 that fantasy owners can wait on in drafts.
Celek’s 7th best overall TE schedule and 6th best overall fantasy playoff TE schedule will give him the potential to produce like any other TE1, but for a 5th or 6th round cost.
7. 
(FPA score: 89.0)
- Kevin Boss ADP: 184 – 15% of 56
Kevin Boss says he is ahead of schedule in his recovery from arthroscopic ankle surgery. Boss had the surgery in late May. “I’m really glad I went ahead and did it,” said Boss. “…I’d be surprised if it was any longer than four weeks. It really hasn’t bothered me at all.” Boss should be 100 percent at some point in training camp, but don’t have too high of hopes for his 2010 fantasy value. He has consistency problems with 6 games with less than 30 yds receiving in 2009.
He had moderate activity in the Red Zone in 2009, the NYG TE RZS% was only 15% of their 56 total Red Zone visits. Kevin Boss has the potential to be a No. 1 Fantasy TE, but ankle issues and inconsistent play hold him back. Boss has reasons to play hard in 2010, especially since he’s in a contract year — a good season statistically should pay off in a big contract.
Boss finished 2009 with respectable totals of 42 catches for 567 yards and 5 touchdowns, but he only scored in four games and had three games with double digits in Fantasy points. The Giants have plenty of weapons in the passing game, so Boss will never post overwhelming stats.
His worst matchup of the season is only the 6th toughest team against TEs. However he has 12 games against bottom half teams against fantasy TEs. He will most likely still be on waivers in week 3 so you could consider him as a good pick up for a spot start for the rest of the season. But you may need to carry another TE. He will still be around in the 15th round so if you space out on other TEs, he is a good low cost fill in for a startable low end TE1 with some upside.
8. 
(FPA score: 92.7)
- Jermichael Finley (YPA 9.7) ADP: 60 – 24% of 62
Jermichael Finely is on everyone’s radar after his breakout 676 yards and 5 TDs in 10 games last year. In 16 games, that would have been 1080 yards and 8 TDs, which would be top three TE material.
He had 17 targets in the Red Zone and 8 inside the 10. Keep in mind he was only targeted once in week 1, 0 times in week 3 and had an injury that held him out of 3 games.
He came back from the injury like gangbusters, piling up 38 receptions in seven weeks including four weeks with at least five receptions. He ended up 5th in TE receiving yards and 5th in TE TDs and didn’t play the whole season.
There’s no doubt that Finley will be a key part of the Packers offense and he will enjoy the 5th best TE fantasy playoff schedule with the #1 projected TE matchup in the championship week 16.
He is going in the 5th round so he will be there after the top 3 are off the board and will serve you well.
9. 
(FPA score: 94.3)
- Tony Moeaki ADP: 346 -11% of 38
- Leonard Pope ADP: 381 -11% of 38
The player rep for TE Tony Moeaki disclosed that the injury causing the rookie to miss time early in OTAs was a “stomach issue.” This should concern KC since they gambled on him in the draft even though he had injury issues.
“It was internal,” said the agent. “I don’t know exactly what it was but it was borderline. He could have gone.” Moeaki returned to put on a show in the veteran minicamp earlier this month and will be fine for training camp.
The rookie showed “both the best hands and the most ability to create mismatches” among tight ends at the Chiefs’ most recent OTAs.
The rookie may be injury prone, but he’s easily the most talented pass-catching tight end on the roster. Moeaki should earn the starting job in training camp.
Charlie Weis may have to bring a different game plan to KC for TEs since KC had the 7th worst RZS% in 2009 with only 11% of their 38 Red Zone appearances.
Moeaki is the kind of pass catcher that could win the job, so he is worth watching in case he has a good camp. If he has a good camp, keep an eye on him as a spot starter since he enjoys the 9th best regular season schedule for TE and the 8th overall TE playoff schedule.
10. 
(FPA score: 101)
- Jermaine Gresham ADP: 250 – 0% of 50
It has been a generation of fantasy seasons since CIN had a relevant fantasy TE. Rookie Jermaine Gresham has the ability to be a playmaker. Given that he can overcome injury after missing every play of his senior year with an injury.
Still CIN needs a quantum leap to make him relevant. Carson Palmer has never thrown more than 30 passes to a TE in a season in his entire career as a quarterback. Those are backup or blocking TE target totals for any other team. But Gresham is a pass catching TE and CIN knew that when they drafted him, perhaps they have something in mind for him. Chase Coffman was their attempt at drafting a blocking TE in 2009.
Carson Palmer said Thursday that he doesn’t see a weakness for Jermaine Gresham and that “the sky is the limit for him.”
“I don’t know if there is anything that any tight end in this league does that he can’t potentially do,” Palmer said, of course it’s hard to evaluate the rookie without pads. “He’s got all the potential in the world. (But) we’ve got a long way to go before our minds are made up on anybody.” Even in a tight-end unfriendly offense, Gresham is emerging as the best fantasy bet among the rookies at his position.
If they do make a radical change to their NFL worst TE Red Zone TDs (o) in 2010, they could enjoy #2 overall fantasy playoff schedule, which helps land them here at #10. That is plenty of time to wait to grab him off waivers.
11. 
(FPA score: 101.7)
- Zach Miller (YPA 9.0) ADP: 116 -17% of 29
Zach Miller has been the only fantasy value player in OAK in years. He has also increased his fantays value every year over the last three seasons. In three seasons, Miller has 166 catches for 2,027 yards and seven touchdowns. He led the Raiders in receiving in 2009 with 66 catches for 805 yards and three touchdowns.
Of course, his potential for scoring touchdowns is limited by the Raiders’ inability to move the ball. OAK was the WORST in the NFL in Red Zone appearances, but 7th in TE RZS%. So when they actually got there, they looked at Miller.
His stats would likely be much better if he played for a different team with just one QB last year, but Miller should improve this season with the addition of QB Jason Campbell, who had a great rapport with TEs Chris Cooley and Fred Davis in Washington.
Miller is also entering a potential contract year. Miller has the ability to be a No. 1 Fantasy option with the Raiders, but he should be drafted as a TE2 and viewed as a sleeper due to his 10th easiest schedule for TEs in 2010 and 11th best fantasy schedule for TEs.
The Raiders plan to use Miller in the red zone more this season. Coach Tom Cable mentioned that the Raiders were “poor” inside opposing 20-yard lines last season, and they were, especially in the passing game. Miller scored just three touchdowns. With Jason Campbell upgrading the QB position immensely, Miller could flirt with 7-9 scores this season.
Miller is going in the 9th round and that is about right. You can feel good about him as a starter for the first half of the season and except for two really tough matchups before his BYE, he could have increased value if he and Campbell hit it off.
12. 
(FPA score: 103.7)
- Mercedes Lewis (YPA 9.8) ADP: 231 -8% of 47
- Zach Miller ADP: 290 -8% of 47
The “other” Zach Miller showed flashes during his rookie year last season. Miller is more of a downfield pass catching player over Lewis. As a result, there could be some competition during camp.
The Jaguars might have discovered something last year in Zach Miller as he hauled in 10 catches for 81 yards and two touchdowns in the team’s last two games. Miller is expected to start camp as a backup behind starter Marcedes Lewis but could continue to find playing time if he can carry over what he did last season into this season. Motivation will be high for Lewis to play well in 2010 because he’ll be in a contract year.
Lewis’ receptions were down this season, but he did post a career-high in yards (518) while developing into a strong blocker on both the run and the pass.
Miller (foot) spent the entire spring on the rehab bike. Miller didn’t practice at all even though the team insists the foot injury is minor. We still don’t know the exact details of the injury, but it’s becoming a real concern for the Jags.
The #12 ranking here is because JAX had the 5th highest TE RZS% (50%) in 2009. Oddly, though, TEs were thrown to only 5 times in the RZ, which makes him the lowest ranked TE tandem in 2009.
Either TE who emerges could be good for a spot start due to their 6th easiest regular season but a bottom 10 fantasy playoff schedule makes them someone to dump before season’s end.
13. 
(FPA score: 105.7)
- Kellen Winslow (YPA 7.6) ADP: 97 -31% of 31
Kellen Winslow led TB in receiving in 2009. His targets rose when Josh Freeman got the QB job and scored 1.3 FPTs more a game during that time. Considering he is the only non-rookie member of the passing game besides Reggie Brown, he should be used often in 2010.
Expect a lot of throws in the middle of the field and expect Winslow to be a factor in a wideout role detached from the formation.
Winslow had offseason knee surgery but was working “without any apparent discomfort or obvious limitations in range of motion” toward the end of offseason workouts, according to beat writer Stephen Holder. One knee scope wouldn’t be a big deal for a 26-year-old, but Winslow has now had 6 knee surgeries. Bucs coach Raheem Morris promised Wednesday that Kellen Winslow will be ready for the start of training camp.
Despite his surgery, Winslow should continue to be one of the best receiving options on the Buccaneers this season — so long as his knee lets him. After leading the team in receptions (77), receiving yards (884) and receiving touchdowns (5) in 2009. TB also had the 4th highest RZS% of all TEs in 2009 with 31% of their Red Zone TDs going to TEs.
Winslow is easily the biggest playmaker at the disposal of young QB Josh Freeman and should continue to be a huge part of the Bucs’ offense that lacks experienced receivers.
He ranks as a second-tier TE, but is still plenty strong as a No. 1 option. Just don’t reach for him because he’s a familiar name – think about getting him with a middle- to late-round pick. Although they have a bottom 10 regular season schedule, keep Winslow in mind for the fantasy playoffs due to his 4th best TE fantasy playoff schedule.
14. 
(FPA score: 107.1)
- Tony Gonzales (YPA 6.8) ADP: 65 – 21% of 56
Tony Gonzales led the league in targets as a TE in 2009, but that could have had more to do with the injuries at all other positions. He also led the league in Red Zone targets (25). However, he managed only 6 TDs. The run game should be back in form in 2010 and those opportunities may be fewer.
The 867 yards he gained on 83 catches (a career-low 10.4 avg.) and 6 TDs was enough to make him a Top 5 Fantasy TE in 2009. ATL had the 11th best TE RZS% in the league (21% of all Red Zone TDs going to TEs).
Gonzalez said that 2010 could “potentially” be his final year and that he doesn’t care about stats, just making the playoffs. There’s no doubt that the Falcons will continue to use him in their offense, including in the red zone (five of six TDs came from 20 yards or closer), but with their run game and other receiver options healthy, Gonzalez’s numbers could be limited to what they were last year and would have nearly zero keeper value.
Consider him a low end Fantasy TE1 worth a pick between Rounds 5 and 7 in drafts – if someone in your league jumps on him sooner it might be because they value his name more than his 2010 outlook. ATL doesn’t have a great regular season schedule and is in the bottom half on playoffs matchups.
15. 
(FPA score: 107.3)
- Dustin Keller (YPA 6.5) ADP: 151 – 13% of 49
Jets coach Rex Ryan predicts that Dustin Keller will be a fantasy football steal this season. If other owners in your league heard that news, or paid attention to the last 3 games of the 2009 season, where Keller scored in all 3 postseason games, then he will be overvalued.
In the past, Keller was often taken off the field to get an extra blocker for the ground attack. With the Jets allowing Mark Sanchez to develop, Keller will be able to exploit one-on-one coverage against a safety or linebacker. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is even adding “specific wrinkles” for Keller this year.
Dustin Keller also believes he will benefit the most from the Jets’ trade for WR Santonio Holmes. “It’s going to open up the field for me a lot,” said Keller. “I’m going to have a lot of one-on-one matchups with linebackers.” Keller may be open down the seam more often in 2010, but his poor blocking ability still keeps him off the field too much in the Jets’ ground-and-pound attack.
The run-first mentality could effect Red Zone opportunities like they did in 2009, specifically only 13% of all Red Zone appearances were TDs to a TE.
Taking Keller in the 12th round is a good plan since his value is middle of the pack with a 12th overall regular season and fantasy playoff schedule strength.
16. 
(FPA score: 107.7)
- Todd Heap (YPA 8.6) ADP: 206 – 17% of 57
- Ed Dickson ADP: 315 – 17% of 57 / Dennis Pitta ADP: 334 – 17% of 57
For the second year in a row, Ravens TE Todd Heap played in 16 games. He also posted his best stats since 2006, catching 53 passes for 593 yards and 6 TDs. Heap’s numbers were strong early in the season, and there was a significant correlation between Heap’s big games and QB Joe Flacco’s big games.
There was a chance that Heap could build on this season and be even more productive in 2010, but the Ravens improved their receiving corps this offseason via free agency and the draft, likely taking targets away from the tight end. In addition to Anquan Boldin, two pass catching tight ends were drafted; Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta.
Dickson or Pitta could have a chance at the job and both rookie TEs were scouted well in the draft. This can not mean good things for Heap. At best this could make things messy with another TEBC.
Todd Heap’s job is safe for now. Dickson has reportedly shown better speed than Pitta in practice, but Pitta has impressed with his “acceleration” and soft hands. Both have a ways to go to be viable NFL blockers. According to the Baltimore Sun, Pitta and Dickson’s 2010 roles are not expected to be major.
Additionally, health concerns are still there. Consider Heap a low-end No. 2 Fantasy TE only worth a late-round pick in the deepest of drafts. You’re better off passing on him on Draft Day and claiming him off waivers for short-time use during the season.
Except for a 3 game stretch in weeks 3-5, they have a middle of the pack regular season and fantasy playoff schedule.
17. 
(FPA score: 108.3)
- Vernon Davis (YPA 8.3) ADP: 49 - 35% of 39
Last year, Vernon Davis was predicted to be the fantasyomatic.com TE stud in the fantasy post season…and he delivered. He showed a rapport with QB Alex Smith. Davis had only 1 target in the Red Zone with Shaun Hill at the helm and then had 8 targets inside the 10 and scored 10 TDs under Smith. He also only had 1 target over 25 yards under Hill.
Davis has gone from bust to elite, and now he has to prove he can stay there as one of the top Fantasy tight ends this season.
Davis said Alex Smith getting his job back as the starting QB has improved his outlook (his stats say the exact same thing), and he’s ready for a repeat performance.
Davis’ 13 TE TD in 2009 tied the all time NFL record. He shared that record with two other TEs last year.
Although Vernon Davis “would love” to get a long-term contract worked out before the start of the season, he insists that it won’t affect his play. “It’s up to them (the 49ers),” said Davis. “It’s all on them, what they want to do. I’m here. I’m still a 49er. I’m ready for the season. I’m focused on the things that I need to be focused on. I’m ready to get better. … My goal is to break records. That’s my goal.” Davis is reportedly seeking $40M over five years, and both sides want to seal the deal before training camp.
In 2009, SF ran 35% of all their TDs to TEs and Davis was one of their top red zone targets. Davis since he has a middle of the pack regular season schedule (17th) but has a top 10 fantasy playoff schedule so he could be a late season darling again. Although for a 4th round price tag, Clark should still be the first off the board. Davis should be ready to live up to the lofty expectations after finally playing like a star player – you can expect his name to fly off the board on Draft Day once Dallas Clark is taken.
18. 
(FPA score: 112.3)
- Bo Scaife (YPA 7.0) ADP: 234 – 9% of 39
- Jared Cook ADP: 244 – 9% of 39
Bo Scaife indicated that he is no longer dissatisfied with his contract situation after skipping numerous OTAs. He probably should be happy with what he has since he had a decent season in 2009 until knocked out of commission by a knee injury.
Also, he isn’t the only TE in town, TE Jared Cook is now up to 250 pounds after gaining 10 pounds over the past year and it ready for some playing time. The weight gain should theoretically help with his blocking, but Cook showed far too much inconsistency to count on a fantasy impact in 2010. “He has good days and bad days, but he is doing better,” coordinator Mike Heimerdinger said. “He has made some plays, but he still has a ways to go. He flashes that talent, but we need him to do it all the time.”
TEN wants Cook to pry this job away from Scaife (who only had one TD in his 13 Red Zone targets in 2009) and QB Vince Young could benefit from this position battle coming out with a clear winner early in camp.
Moreover, with the Titans not bringing back TE Alge Crumpler, Cook steps up on the depth chart and should see more than the nine catches for 74 yards he had last season. If you’re in a deep draft or a dynasty/keeper league draft, Cook is worth a late-round flier on the hope that he can bump starter Bo Scaife for a lot of playing time.
In general TEN hasn’t used the TE too much the last couple years, only a 9% TE RZS% needs to improve. They do have some opportunity with the 4th best TE regular season schedule but the 6th WORST fantasy playoff schedule. Do not draft either guy, but consider them as spot starts during their earl season soft schedule.
19. 
(FPA score: 114.7)
- Stephen Spach – 8% of 54
- Ben Patrick – 8% of 54
With all the passing for TDs in the Red Zone in 2009, only 8% of the TDs went to TEs.
Ben Patrick was the best TE for Arizona last season with 12 catches for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns. But the Cardinals don’t throw much to the TE (8% TE RZS%), and Patrick shares times with Stephen Spach and Anthony Becht.
Spach has 13 receptions in four pro seasons. The 28-year-old (in July) offers no upside, but Arizona values his blocking and special teams ability. With a bottom 10 regular season schedule and middle of the pack fantays playoffs, Patrick has minimal Fantasy value outside of being a one-week replacement in deep leagues and should be ignored in all leagues on Draft Day.
20. 
(FPA score: 121.7)
- Donte Rosario (YPA 6.9) - 20% of 40 / Jeff King / Gary Barnidge
For a team that only converted on 50% of their 40 Red Zone appearance sin 2009 and only threw 20% of those TDs to TEs, the position may not have too much promise in 2010.
Considered the most athletic of the Panthers’ tight ends, Dante Rosario led the players at his position with 26 catches for 313 yards (12.0 avg.) in 2009 with 2 touchdowns. In three years, Rosario has five touchdowns and 630 yards on 50 catches, with his receiving numbers increasing annually. He’s headed for a contract year in 2010, which should motivate him to play well in order to land a rich deal.
Matt Moore could only help Rosario’s chances since young QBs tend to like their TE security blankets. Consider Rosario a deep, deep sleeper for 2010 or low end TE2, due to his bottom 10 fantays playoff schedule with a middle of the pack regular season TE schedule.
21. 
(FPA score: 122)
- Greg Olsen (YPA 5.9) ADP: 141 -46% of 51
CHI lead the NFL in TE RZS% in 2009 (46%), and perhaps no player better enjoyed the arrival of Jay Cutler in Chicago than Olsen, who posted career-highs across the board with 60 catches for 612 yards and a whopping team-high eight touchdowns (all scored in six games over the course of the season). Although he did post less than 20 yds receiving in 5 games.
But things are not the same in CHI in 2010. The addition of Mike Martz is bad news for the fantasy value of TE Greg Olsen in 2010. And he knows it.
A lot has been made of the lack of plans that Martz has for Olsen in the CHI offense. Martz doesn’t even have game plans in his philosophy for pass catching TEs.
Martz says that Greg Olsen will need to improve as a blocker, first and foremost, before earning a consistent role as a pass-catching tight end.
“He has to get grounded in the running game, obviously,” Martz said, adding that Olsen could earn a job as a third receiver in some packages if he shows well as a blocker. “But before you get there you have to go back to the basics of getting your hand on the ground and coming off the ball and sustaining a block. If a tight end can’t do that than his value is (diminished).” Keep in mind, though, that Martz has never had a TE with Olsen’s talents either.
Sure, Martz will help the passing game in Chicago, but also keep in mind that Martz has never had much success with tight ends in his career. The addition of blocking tight end Brandon Manumaleuna can’t be considered a good sign either.
He’s no better than a low-end No. 1/top-end No. 2 Fantasy TE worth a late-round pick, and he shouldn’t be the lone tight end on a Fantasy roster because although he has the 11th easiest schedule for TEs in the regular season, he has the 7th worst fantasy playoff schedule.
22. 
(FPA score: 122)
- Shawn Nelson ADP: 276 – 8% of 38
Shawn Nelson had only 17 catches in 2009, but BUF had a simply horrible offensive. If Chan Gailey can turn him into player despite his bad routes, then no one else is on the roster to knock him off.
Nelson enters his sophomore season trying to make more noise than he did as a rookie for the Bills in 2009. He will compete for the starting TE job in Buffalo, and we’re optimistic that he’ll have a chance to see more playing time as offensive-minded coach Gailey will use whoever he can to help move the chains.
Nelson’s athleticism might get a chance to breakout. Consider Nelson nothing more than a low-end sleeper at this point, worth stashing late in the deepest of leagues and at the end of dynasty/keeper draft due to the league’s second worst TE RZS% in 2009. This means a lot has to change before any BUF TE is on your radar. A bottom 10 fantasy schedule certainly doesn’t help the chances.
23. 
(FPA score: 125.3)
- Brandon Pettigrew (YPA 6.6) ADP: 232 – 29% of 36
- Tony Scheffler (YPA 8.5) ADP: 200 – 29% of 36
Brandon Pettigrew tore his ACL on Thanksgiving last yer and even though his recovery is on track, DET still grabbed TE Tony Sheffler in free agency. While Pettigrew heals, Shellfer is making progress this offseason with Matthew Stafford.
Scheffler is expected to serve as a short-area target for Stafford. Scheffler might put up some good stats at the beginning of the season but ultimately his fate is tied to the recovery of Pettigrew. If Pettigrew is a training camp participant with no issues, Scheffler’s presence would probably limit both of their stats. But if Pettigrew is sidelined, the door is open for Scheffler to get some decent totals. Do not forget why Scheffler left DEN, he was benched in week 17 for having a “bad attitude”.
So far, Scheffler looked “very much in sync” with Stafford during OTA season, according to the Detroit Free Press. Dating even back to Georgia, Stafford doesn’t have much history throwing to the tight end, but Scheffler is more of a wide receiver anyway. “I love being in this offense,” said Scheffler, whose talent went to waste last year under Josh McDaniels. “There’s a lot of chances for guys to get favorable matchups.”
Pettigrew, a huge, versatile tight end with big hands, ended 2009 with 30 catches for 346 yards (11.5 avg.) and two touchdowns. His rehab from the torn ACL might throw off his availability for the start of the season, but there’s no denying his potential. With Scheffler coming aboard, Pettigrew shouldn’t be considered outside of deeper dynasty/keeper league drafts. The second-year tight end is expected to focus on in-line blocking this season following the addition of speedster Tony Scheffler.
The team will bring Pettigrew “along slowly,” but he’s on track for be ready for Opening Day. The second-year tight end is expected to focus on in-line blocking this season following the addition of speedster Tony Scheffler. Pettigrewdid participate in some team drills to finish up minicamp season.
This could actually have some value because in 2009 DET 6th in TE RZS% with 36% of their Red Zone TDs going to a TE. Their schedules are middle of the pack for TEs.
24. 
(FPA score: 130.7)
- Anthony Fasano (YPA 6.3) ADP: 252 – 15% of 54
Anthony Fasano‘s 2008 season made for sleeper talk in 2009. Their offensive lends itself to red zone opportunities and short passing but this hasn’t seemed to benefit Fasano.
Fasano had 34 catches for 454 yards and seven touchdowns in 2008 and looked like he was headed toward becoming a solid Fantasy option. Instead, Fasano regressed in 2009 and finished with 31 catches for 339 yards and two touchdowns. With the addition of Brandon Marshall to the Dolphins’ offense, chances are Fasano won’t be a useful Fantasy option again.
MIA only threw TDs to TEs 15% of the time so he’s not worth drafting as anything more than a No. 2 option, but he could also land on rosters as a one-week replacement during the season
25. 
(FPA score: 132)
- Jeremy Shockey (YPA 8.1) ADP: 168 -12% of 71
- David Thomas ADP: 350 -12% of 71
- Jimmy Graham ADP: 386 -12% of 71
Don’t let the winning Super Bowl TD catch distract you from the fact that Jeremy Shockey did nothing in 2009. David Thomas ended with 356 yards on 35 catches and a touchdown in Shockey’s absence last year (Weeks 10-16) and this could lead to a clear split in responsibilities. Or another possible TEBC?
Shockey’s stats continued to not match the perception that he’s an elite Fantasy TE. Playing in 13 regular-season games in 2009, Shockey caught 48 passes for 569 yards (11.9 avg.) and 3 TDs. He also chipped in 2 TDs in three postseason games with 58 receiving yards on 7 catches.
A late-May seizure at the Saints’ practice facility appeared to be a one-time incident and not something owners should be concerned about since Jeremy Shockey returned to the Saints’ OTA practices after sitting one morning session with back spasms. Shockey was in for team drills, indicating that the Saints believe he’s at least close to 100 percent. We still don’t have high hopes for his fantasy stock.
NO only had a paltry 9th worst TE RZS% (12%) even though they were 2nd in the NFL in Red Zone scoring. So it appears that all that passing is not going to TEs.
We have said to lower expectations from the NO offensive stars and we caution taking any TE due to their 5th worst TE schedule in 2010.
26. 
(FPA score: 132.7)
- Alge Crumpler (YPA 6.1) - 12% of 65
- Rob Gronkowski ADP -274 – 12% of 65
- Aaron Hernandez ADP -359 – 12% of 65
The Patriots drafted TE Rob Gronkowski in the second round of the NFL Draft at No. 42 overall out of Arizona. He fills a huge need and could be expected to contribute from Day 1. After sitting out 2009 with a back injury, Gronkowski left college early as one of the top tight end prospects.
The Patriots added another tight end in Round 4 with Aaron Hernandez out of Florida. Hernandez and Gronkowski will likely compete for the starting spot, but Gronkowski has more value coming into the season. He’s worth a late-round pick in seasonal leagues, and he should be drafted with a mid-round selection in rookie-only drafts and keeper formats.
The Patriots are playing it safe with Hernandez amid reports that he failed multiple drug tests at Florida. Gronkiwski missed the entire 2009 season with a back injury and is a pass catching TE.
Beat writer Mike Reiss expects Alge Crumpler to play early in the season at the expense of rookie Gronkowski.
While Gronkowski has loads of potential, expectations should be reeled in for the 21-year-old’s first season.
With the 6th best Red Zone scoring in the NFl in 2009, still only 12% of those TDs went to TEs. The absolute worst first 4 week schedule of any NFL TE and an 8th toughest fantasy playoff schedule could mean a slow start all around for this group.
27. 
(FPA score: 133.3)
- Daniel Graham (YPA 7.8) ADP: 328 – 12% of 52
Tony Sheffler was just one of a string of players who didn’t agree with McDaniels and go tout of town. Mostly because McDaniels has a philosophy of using TEs as blockers with three WRs on passing plays.
Daneil Graham is McDaniel’s answer at TE in 2010 and he is no more than a lineman in a TE jersey. This is exactly what McDaniels needs when he goes with three WR formations.
That speaks to DEN’s low 12% TE RZS% in 2009 and no signs of change for 2010. Even if that concept dramatically changes in 2010, DEN still has the 5th worst fantasy schedule for TEs in the league.
28. 
(FPA score: 139.5)
- Heath Miller (YPA 8.5) ADP 136 – 26% of 56
Fantasy owners are hoping that Steelers TE Heath Miller continues to break out in 2010. It will not happen. Last year was his best season as he caught 76 balls for 789 yards (10.4 avg.) — career-high numbers. He added 6 TDs and was a solid No. 1 option for owners.
Miller is a red zone hawk and had 12 targets within the 10 yard line in 2009, enough for top three in the league. He actually makes things a problem in his passing game because of his excellent run blocking skills.
There are numerous receivers on the Steelers’ roster that will get targeted each week, but following the departure of Santonio Holmes in a mid-April trade, there should still be opportunities for Miller to post receptions and quality stats.
The problem for Miller was Ben Roethlisberger being suspended for 6 games for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. That could severely hamper Miller’s production, and we view him as a No. 2 Fantasy option to enter the season.
There is promise since in 2009 PIT had the league’s 10th best TE RZS% (26%) but with the second worst schedule in the league for all TEs and the 3rd worst schedule for TEs in the fantasy playoffs, owners should steer clear.
29.
(FPA score: 143.1)
- Antonio Gates (YPA 10.6) ADP: 45 -21% of 63
Lots of folks talk about how SD was so pass heavy in 2009. However they were only 25th overall in pass attempts. They did have one of the league’s highest passing TD totals in the red zone, but this also factors in a poor rushing attack which should be improved with the addition of rookie RB Ryan Mathews. SD has the 7th most Red Zone appearances in 2009, converting 34 of those to TDs. 15 were RB TDs but Rivers was credited with 50% himself.
The biggest concern with the SD passing game is not having their top pass catcher and one of their most valuable lineman. Chargers GM A.J. Smith indicated that the team fully expects Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill to hold out well into the season.
Plan on Jackson NOT getting dealt, but possibly not available until week 10. McNeil would be just as important for Rivers so watch that situation just as closely.
There are certainly reasons to still value TE Antonio Gates, even this low in the projections. He lead all TEs in receiving yards in 2009 (1,157) and YPA (10.6). The lowest amount of Red Zone targets he has had in the last 4 years was 12 targets and that was in 2009. He has had at least 8TDs in all of the last 6 seasons. He was the top option in the passing game, even with Jackson.
However, SD has the WORST fantasy playoff schedule for TEs in the NFL in 2010 and the 4th worst regular season schedule. So Gates’ 4th round price may be too much to risk for fantasy owners this year. It is not that Gates isn’t a TE1, it is just that he may be too expensive for any risk he may offer this year. There is some risk, not to mention his “minor planter fascitis” diagnosed in May.
30. 
(FPA score: 149.3)
- John Carlson (YPA 7.2) ADP: 144 -21% of 48
- Anthony McCoy -21% of 48
John Carlson is hoping to pick up this year where last season ended. Carlson was largely a disappointment in 2009, but he finished the season with a 4-game touchdown streak mainly against poor defenses against TEs.
That late push made his overall stats look better — 51 catches for 574 yards and seven touchdowns — but he let Fantasy owners down early in the year with only three games over 50 yards receiving for the season. This probably had more to do with the circumstances last season with SEA’s terrible offense where he was completely non-existent for weeks at a time. He also spent a lot of time blocking during those tough stretches.
He has potential to be a No. 1 Fantasy TE even with Seattle adding Chris Baker, who is only a blocking TE.
One fantasy player may take him early this year: In a Twitter post, Matt Hasselbeck wished a happy 26th birthday to Carlson, referring to him as “this year’s fantasy sleeper.” Hasselbeck says this because his blocking duties are gone and SEA has been using Carlson in the slot this offseason.
Seattle has one of the shakiest wide receiver groups in the league, and Baker’s signing will alleviate much of Carlson’s in-line blocking duty. Carlson was the No. 11 overall fantasy TE in 2009, and No. 7 in 2008.
However, temper your expectations since SEA has the 3rd worst fantasy schedule for TEs, a quarterback controversy brewing and the 4th worst fantasy playoff schedule and this will not give Carlson even the value he had in 2009.
31. 
(FPA score: 151.3)
- Daniel Fells (YPA 7.6) ADP: 358 - 27% of 34
STL actually threw TDs to TEs in 27% of their Red Zone appearances in 2009. Although they only made it to the red zone 11 times (3rd worst in the NFL).
The Rams re-signed TE Daniel Fells this offseason, and he has the chance to compete for the starting job there. Fells caught three touchdowns in 14 games with four starts before missing the final two games with a knee injury. Fells had 21 catches for 273 yards last season. Even if he is the starter, Fells has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.
Fells had been unable to practice at OTAs due to a knee injury suffered late last season. Fells suffered a sprained ligament and thighbone fracture above his right knee in December. Meanwhile, rookie TE Michael Hoomanawanui has shown better hands than expected. The fifth-round pick can block, which may earn him a chance to start on Opening Day.
You have to consider that STL still has the leagues second worst fantasy playoff schedule for TEs and the 5th worst fantasy regular season schedule.
32. 
(FPA score: 157.7)
- Ben Watson (YPA 10.6) ADP: 224 – 18% of 39
Ben Watson was a reliable target for Tom Brady in his days with the Patriots, but wasn’t deemed valuable enough to hang on to this offseason. He was traded to CLE, who need all the help they can get.
Because of this, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that QB Jake Delhomme will rely on a steady TE this season, so Watson could be a frequent target. CLE is a rebuilding team so 2009 figures won’t matter much, but they only made it to the Red Zone 39 times and only scored TDs 44% of the time. Only 3 of those TDs (18%) were to TEs. Cleveland’s subpar passing attack leaves him as a low-end TE2 in fantasy circles.
Watson was the best TE free agent this offseason but he got sent to a bad team for his fantasy value. You may remember him saving you as a BYE week fill in TE in years past but he was just sent to fantasy purgatory. So many incredible things would need to happen to make him worth even being a waiver BYE fill in this year.
Watson caught on with the Browns so far this offseason, and it’s expected that he’ll start and see a lot of playing time with them in 2010. He has a shot to do a little better than that in Cleveland since he’ll see more playing time and might be relied upon a little more in the Browns’ passing game. He’s still safe to treat as a middle- to low-end No. 2 TE but he should be avoided at all costs: CLE has the #1 WORST TE fantasy playoff schedule and the WORST TE regular season schedule in 2010. What did you do to Cleveland LeBron?
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